This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
This week is the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, that annual time where celebrities and the pros come together for four days. Here's our stats preview, which heavily features the weather.
But First a Word About Webb Simpson
Simpson lost to Hideki Matsuyama in a four-hole playoff in Scottsdale last week yet still had a victory of sorts – he was back in contention. Ever since the anchoring ban went into effect Simpson had been a different player, with the former U.S. Open champion (remember that?) ranking 177th in strokes gained-putting last year and 189th early this season. But at the Phoenix Open he was a whopping 13th. Yes, I wrote that right, 13th!, gaining 4.361 strokes on the field for the week. Being sixth in tee-to-green helps your overall cause in terms of being in contention but still, if Simpson's turned a corner on the greens they we may see a resurgence of one of the most talented tee-to-green players we've seen in the last 10 years.
The Weather
To put it nicely, the weather on the Monterey Peninsula is just awful. We haven't had a year like this in a while, but it's back, and it's back with a vengeance. Tuesday was pouring rain and a four-club wind. Wednesday is cloudy and a bit warmer in the 60s, Thursday is rain and wind in the low 60s, Friday is showers in the high 50s and FINALLY sun and a tiny bit of wind over the weekend as temperatures moderate
This week is the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, that annual time where celebrities and the pros come together for four days. Here's our stats preview, which heavily features the weather.
But First a Word About Webb Simpson
Simpson lost to Hideki Matsuyama in a four-hole playoff in Scottsdale last week yet still had a victory of sorts – he was back in contention. Ever since the anchoring ban went into effect Simpson had been a different player, with the former U.S. Open champion (remember that?) ranking 177th in strokes gained-putting last year and 189th early this season. But at the Phoenix Open he was a whopping 13th. Yes, I wrote that right, 13th!, gaining 4.361 strokes on the field for the week. Being sixth in tee-to-green helps your overall cause in terms of being in contention but still, if Simpson's turned a corner on the greens they we may see a resurgence of one of the most talented tee-to-green players we've seen in the last 10 years.
The Weather
To put it nicely, the weather on the Monterey Peninsula is just awful. We haven't had a year like this in a while, but it's back, and it's back with a vengeance. Tuesday was pouring rain and a four-club wind. Wednesday is cloudy and a bit warmer in the 60s, Thursday is rain and wind in the low 60s, Friday is showers in the high 50s and FINALLY sun and a tiny bit of wind over the weekend as temperatures moderate a bit into high 50s and low 60s.
Bottom line: those can play in varying conditions will be rewarded this week.
The Stat
And that brings us to this: how do you choose a stat to go across three very different golf courses – Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula, on an ever-changing weather week where luck may come into play? How about bounce back? Bounce back measures a player's ability to bounce back from a bogey or worse with an birdie or better. Those leaders in the field this week are:
Stewart Cink - 43.00 percent
Matt Jones - 42.86
Shane Lowry - 37.04
Greg Owen - 37.04
Charley Hoffman - 37.04
I really like Lowry and Hoffman out of this group. Lowry is from Ireland, after all, so this weather seems right up his alley. Lowry is T33-T16 in his two 2017 PGA Tour appearances thus far and last week at TPC Scottsdale ranked fourth in strokes gained–off the tee, seventh in approach to the green and T2 in greens in regulation. You have to strike your ball well in tough weather, and Lowry seems prime to do that.
Hoffman, meanwhile, has never won at Pebble and doesn't have a great history here yet has won in some tough conditions, including at the Texas Open last year. Last season he was 52nd in scoring average and 41st in strokes gained-tee to green, both good ballstriking benchmarks to keep an eye on this week in the aforementioned Clambake weather.
Contenders to Watch
Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Jerry Kelly, Shane Lowry, Jimmy Walker, Patrick Reed, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Ricky Barnes (paired with Bill Belichick), Luke Donald, Tony Finau, Jim Furyk, Adam Hadwin, Padraig Harrington, Andrew Johnston, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Pat Perez, Justin Rose and Gary Woodland are in the field this week.
DJ has won this event twice, is always a good pick and is playing alongside his father-in-law Wayne Gretzky.
Keep an eye on Kuchar this week. Known for his ballstriking (always been in top-five of strokes gained–tee to green over last five seasons) and easy-to-be-around manner (this week is hard for some professionals who hate slow play), he seems overdue for a win as he's gone nearly two seasons without a W.
And this could be the week Spieth breaks through, as well. Sponsored by AT&T and playing with his buddy Jake Owen, he's overdue for a win here (T4-T7 in 2014 and 2015 and a solid T21 last year all while gaining 1.346 on Pebble's difficult greens), and has the temperament to withstand everything that comes with this Pro-Am.
