This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
$10 million. A season-ending points race. Flipped nines. It's a very interesting setup as we get ready for the Tour Championship, the final event in the 2015-16 PGA Tour season this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Here's our stats preview:
The 5 Who Control Their Destiny
My pick to win this week is Paul Casey. He just continues to trend in the right direction, finishing second at the last two events in Boston and Indianapolis and upping his season-long stats rankings to 20th for strokes gained–off the tee and 16th in approach to the green. And even his short game and putting rankings, which haven't been great, have seen improvements these last couple weeks, ranking 13th in putting in Boston.
Who am I most pessimistic about amongst the five? Jason Day. He withdrew from the BMW Championship with back pain and is only "cautiously optimistic" about this week, and said early in the week that he feels the pain from doing anything from picking up a tee to changing a diaper. This may also explain some of the errant shots in New York and Boston that left him ranked 72nd and 71st in strokes gained–off the tee respectively.
Dustin Johnson, meanwhile, won the BMW Championship on cruise control with his complete game working, ranking first in strokes gained–off the tee, 17th on approach to the green, 14th around the green and second in putting. Do that again and he's the FedEx Cup champ, Tour Champ and Player
$10 million. A season-ending points race. Flipped nines. It's a very interesting setup as we get ready for the Tour Championship, the final event in the 2015-16 PGA Tour season this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Here's our stats preview:
The 5 Who Control Their Destiny
My pick to win this week is Paul Casey. He just continues to trend in the right direction, finishing second at the last two events in Boston and Indianapolis and upping his season-long stats rankings to 20th for strokes gained–off the tee and 16th in approach to the green. And even his short game and putting rankings, which haven't been great, have seen improvements these last couple weeks, ranking 13th in putting in Boston.
Who am I most pessimistic about amongst the five? Jason Day. He withdrew from the BMW Championship with back pain and is only "cautiously optimistic" about this week, and said early in the week that he feels the pain from doing anything from picking up a tee to changing a diaper. This may also explain some of the errant shots in New York and Boston that left him ranked 72nd and 71st in strokes gained–off the tee respectively.
Dustin Johnson, meanwhile, won the BMW Championship on cruise control with his complete game working, ranking first in strokes gained–off the tee, 17th on approach to the green, 14th around the green and second in putting. Do that again and he's the FedEx Cup champ, Tour Champ and Player of the Year.
Others to Watch
Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy are the first two outside the top 5 and have the best chance to take home everything after the top 5. Although Spieth is the defending champion here at East Lake, I'm looking at McIlroy to break out of this pack. He won in Boston, and was seventh in strokes gained–off the tee and fourth in strokes gained–approach to the green at Indy … and he just couldn't putt. A week off to work more on the new putting style, and I really believe this will be his week.
Three Ryder Cup Hopefuls
Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger and Bubba Watson are believed to be the three players vying to be the final captain's pick Sunday night during halftime of NBC's Sunday Night Football. Who's the best pick this week?
Try Bubba Watson. Yes, much maligned Bubba. He's gone T8-T13-MC-T20 in his last four starts and at Crooked Stick a couple weeks ago was fourth in strokes gained–off the tee and 22nd in strokes gained–approach to the green, both key benchmarks for this week. I really think he plays his way onto this team.
(Justin Thomas' issue is consistency. If you have a daily league and see him playing 18 holes of consistent golf Thursday or Friday, I'd seriously consider playing him over the weekend. Daniel Berger meanwhile I fear will play too tight this week under the pressure that he has to perform).
Flipped Nines
They flipped the nines at East Lake to hopefully lead to a more dramatic (and commercial free on NBC!) finish, ending with a par-5 that has the potential for eagles and everything else. Who are the par-5 scoring leaders in the field this week?
1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Jimmy Walker
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Jason Day
Welp, all those guys are favorites. Who else ranks highly? Gary Woodland. He's had a nice season, nothing flashy though. If you want a sleeper pick, maybe he's prime for a big finish.
The Weather
The weather will be great all week but hot, with temperatures near 90.
