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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Brian Gay
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Gay is coming off of his worst season in several years as he only made two-of-nine cuts since the Tour's re-start. Gay hasn't won on Tour since 2013 and at age 48, he's nearing the end of his PGA Tour career. The best case scenario is likely seeing him make a few top-10s in smaller events, but even that may be a stretch at this point.
Gay's PGA Tour career started slowly in the late-90s, but he found his groove about a decade later when he picked up three wins in two years. Since then, it's been a mixed bag and although he's played pretty well over the past two seasons, his upside appears to be a thing of the past, leaving him as a mediocre-at-best salary cap option. He does play a lot however, which means he has value in other formats.
Gay earned over $3 million in 2009 and it only took him eight seasons to top the $2 million mark again. The years in-between those two season were not kind to Gay as he often fell below the $1 million mark. Gay's 2017-2018 season was great, all things considered, and there's no reason to try an disparage what he accomplished. Still, the odds are very slim that he can repeat what he did last year, this season and even if he does, it doesn't justify a salary cap selection. Gay has been a pretty decent golfer on the PGA Tour for a long time, but he'll turn 47 this season and guys don't get better as they approach age 50.
Some would say Gay's largest accomplishment last season was helping Ian Poulter find a discrepancy in the points system and retain his playing privileges, but Gay was actually pretty good on the course as well. The reason Gay found the discrepancy, was because he was in the same spot, trying to earn enough points on a medical extension and when he fell just short, he spotted the issue, which saved his and Poulter's card. Gay was only in that position because he had posted consecutive top-10s at the RBC Heritage and Valero Texas Open. Gay posted one more top-10, a T3 at the Barbasol and was able to retain his card for this season. Gay had a lot of upside a handful of years ago, but it no longer exists.
Gay will play under a major medical extension, with 14 events to earn 309 points or $461,851. That's a tall order right now, and there's no reason to gamble on Gay in any fantasy format.
Gay is fully exempt for the 2014-15 season because of his win at the Humana Challenge in 2013. That alone is reason enough to take him at this price. Gay has never been a consistent golfer, but all it takes for this guy to have a great year is one hot streak. As such, Gay is a great salary cap selection this season. He should also find his way into the first 10 rounds of the draft.
Gay's 2013 season was a lot like his career. He's a homerun hitter, but he strikes out a lot. Last year he picked up a win at the Humana Challenge in January, but earned only $400k after that win. Gay will likely end up in a similar spot on the money list again in 2014 and it will likely be due to one big week. The problem is, you never know when that week will come. He's too much of a risk in salary cap formats and in drafts leagues he should go in the 60-70 range.
Surprisingly, without a late-season run in 2012, Brian Gay would have been outside the top 125 last season. This from a guy who not only won twice during the 2009 season, but did so in astounding fashion with blowout wins both times. Gay hasn't resembled that player in a while, though. In fact, he hasn't even posted a top-3 since 2010. The farther he gets away from that glorious run, the more it looks like an aberration. Gay has been a quality player on the PGA TOUR for a while, but it looks like he's settling into territory just over the $1 million mark. His upside remains high, but he's probably not worth a pick in salary cap leagues this year. In draft leagues, he's worth a look in the ninth or 10th round.
Gay showed heretofore unknown upside in 2009 when he won twice and earned more than $3 million. Since then, however, he's failed to come anywhere near those heights. The fashion in which he won those two events in 2009 leads us to believe he might not have staying power to keep up a high level of play. He won those two events in a short span, and in one ran the field, showing that it might have been a case of a player getting extremely hot and capitalizing. Not that it can't happen again, but we haven't seen that form the last two years. Hoping that it might be seen again this season is foolish to bank on.
Gay settled down last year after a breakout 2009 season when he won twice. He wasn't able to earn another victory last season, but he did get a runner-up finish at the Byron Nelson Championship. Gay showed a lot of game in 2009, and it's hard to tell if that was a trend or a mirage, but considering he earned more than $2 million in 2008, he seems to be a safe bet to at least hit his 2010 number. Gay is extremely accurate off the tee as well as on the green, ranking in the top 20 for both categories in each of the last three seasons.
Gay posted career-best numbers in 2009, but will have a hard time surpassing or even matching them this season. Gay was on fire early last season and won two tournaments, but he rarely matched that level of play outside of the tournaments where he claimed victory. Gay played well enough last season to be eligible for the big events in 2010, which should help his numbers in the long run. Gay has the skills to reach the winner's circle, but it's not likely that lightning will strike again twice in 2010. He came from 111th (end of 2008) to finish at 46th in the final 2009 Official World Golf Rankings.
Gay did most of his damage during weaker events in 2008 and as such, he's not a good pick at this price. Expect a decline in his production this season.
Brian Gay is accurate off the tee and accurate on the green. Getting to the green however is a problem. A closer look at his stats suggests that Gay sacrifices distance off the tee to remain accurate. That leads to longer shots into the green which causes the low G.I.R. average, which also directly affects the putts per green number, which in this case is probably a little misleading. What it boils down to is this, Gay needs to find a better balance between distance and accuracy, or his ceiling will always be limited.
Gay can putt. He's been ranked in the top 50 the last five years, and three of those years he was in the top 10. It hasn't equated to victories, though, or even many top-5 finishes. Gay has been at this since 1994, and he's always had the ability to putt, so to think he's going to figure out the other parts of his game this season is foolish. If we were dealing with a golfer in his fourth year on Tour, there would be hope that he could turn it around, but that's not the case.
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T29 at Sentry TOC
Gay posted a two-under 71 on Sunday at the Sentry Tournament of Champions to finish 13-under and tied for 29th.