DraftKings MMA: UFC 201 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 201 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

UPDATE: The flyweight bout between Ian McCall and Justin Scoggins that was set to kick of Saturday's pay-per-view card has been scrapped after Scoggins had to withdraw due to a weight-cutting issue. According to UFC.com, another flyweight matchup between Ryan Benoit and Freddy Serrano will replace it on the main card.

Two hard-hitting, iron-chinned welterweights collide for a chance at the UFC Welterweight Title on Saturday in Atlanta.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Welterweight Championship

(C) Robbie Lawler (26-10-0, 1NC) v. Tyron Woodley (15-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lawler ($10,600), Woodley ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Lawler (-200), Woodley (+170)

In a day and age when belts seem to be changing hands at a record pace, a pair of 34-year-olds will battle for the UFC's 170-pound crown. Lawler is currently riding a five-fight winning streak, and his last three bouts were victories over Johny Hendricks, Rory MacDonald and Carlos Condit. Amazingly, Lawler has gone from a fringe top-10 fighter to one of the longer reigning champions in the company. Robbie's greatest asset remains his huge knockout power, but his ability to put together consistent combinations throughout a five-round fight has proved invaluable. Even when it appears as if Lawler is dead tired and unable to move, he somehow finds a way to pick up the pace late in order to steal decisions.

Woodley has won four of his last five, although one of those wins was against Josh Koscheck, one was the result of Condit blowing out his ACL, and his last fight was a split-decision win over Kelvin Gastelum in January 2015. Although Woodley has been racking up victories, he hasn't necessarily been dominant. Woodley was due to face Hendricks in October, but that fight was scrapped when Hendricks had problems cutting weight. To recap, Woodley hasn't fought in nearly a year and a half. I actually think Woodley has even bigger one-punch knockout power than Lawler, although Lawler is far better at getting off combinations, particularly to the body. Woodley should have a slight advantage in the wrestling department as a former Division I grappler at the University of Missouri, although Lawler was an all-state wrestler in high school and that part of his game has been long underrated.

When you have a fight like this between such high-level athletes, it can be difficult to find an area in which one fighter is considerably better than the other. Not only have I seen Lawler beat the best welterweights in the world, but I've seen him do so in fights in which he has gotten his butt kicked, to put it mildly. I don't think you can put a value on being in wars like that, and finding a way to come out on top. Woodley is a live underdog, but he's not my pick.

THE PICK: Lawler

Co-Main Event – Women's Strawweight

Rose Namajunas (6-2-0) v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Namajunas ($10,800), Kowalkiewicz ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Namajunas (-230), Kowalkiewicz (+190)

Thug Rose's stock took a hit when she lost the inaugural UFC Strawweight Championship fight to Carla Esparza in December 2014, but she has since dominated in three straight wins over Angela Hill, Paige VanZant and Tecia Torres. Everyone knows about PVZ, while Hill and Torres are two of the most underrated 115-pounders in the world. Namajunas is strong and capable wrestler, which sets up her greatest asset - her submission game. Striking isn't her strength, but she is getting progressively better in that area with the help of her fiancée, former MMA fighter and pro kickboxer Pat Barry.

Kowalkiewicz entered the UFC in December and took an easy unanimous from the talented Randa Markos. She then fought Heather Jo Clark in and earned another easy decision victory in May. Markos is a quality strawweight, but Clark is nothing but roster depth and neither woman will prepare Kowalkiewicz for the pace that Namajunas is going to put on her. Karolina's strength is her Muay Thai skills, and I expect her to do fine in the striking exchanges between the two women, but I don't see how she can keep up with Rose in any other area. That being said, it should be noted that she has exhibited solid takedown defense in her first two UFC bouts. Karolina is underrated - she's a legitimate top-five strawweight with the potential for more, but I think this is too much, too soon.

I'm not crazy about either woman from a DraftKings perspective because I think there's a decent chance that this fight goes this distance. I certainly haven't been Rose's biggest supporter over the past year-plus, but I think it's pretty clear that she is the third-best 115-pounder in the world behind champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and former title challenger Claudia Gadelha. My guess is that she fights for the championship within the next 12 months. 

THE PICK: Namajunas

Welterweight

Matt Brown (22-14-0) v. Jake Ellenberger (30-11-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Brown ($10,900), Ellenberger ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Brown (-325), Ellenberger (+265)

Look, two or three years ago this would have been a heck of a fight, but at this point and time... it's not. Brown's seven-fight winning streak from February 2012 to May 2014 that included a victory over Stephen Thompson seems like a decade ago. He has lost three of his last four fights, and although the losses came against Lawler, Hendricks, and Demian Maia, the bottom line is that Brown just doesn't have anywhere near enough athleticism to compete with better opponents. He's tough, durable, and still has some power in his hands, but that's about it.

As bad as Brown has been of late, Ellenberger has been even worse, losing five of his last six. He is too slow to do any damage on the feet, and he gets hit far too much to be able to employ his wrestling skills successfully. Ellenberger isn't close to being a top-10 170-pounder at this point, and Brown probably isn't either. The fight makes perfect sense from a matchmaking perspective. because whoever loses could be facing release. I sincerely doubt that Brown is going anywhere, win or lose, although I imagine that Simply put, Ellenberger is going to find himself unemployed with one more setback here.

In the end, I feel confident that Brown is going to win this fight, simply because I think Ellenberger is completely toast -- not because I think Brown is anything special. A fight like this - two fading veterans who are quickly approaching the finish line, is the type of fight that I generally avoid at all costs. If I had to put one of them in my DraftKings lineup, it would never be Ellenberger, even at a massive discount.

THE PICK: Brown

Bantamweight

Francisco Rivera (11-6-0, 1NC) v. Erik Perez (15-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Rivera ($9,700), Perez ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Rivera (+105), Perez (-125)

Rivera deserves credit for his willingness to fight anyone at any time, but the bottom line is that he has lost four of his last five fights. He is one of numerous fighters on this card who may be released if they come up short on Saturday. Rivera prefers to stand and bang, having never won a fight in his entire career by anything other than knockout or decision. He has a lot of power in his hands, but he gets hit a lot and isn't a great athlete. A UFC veteran since May 2012, Rivera is very limited at age-34 despite having had numerous fights against some of the best in the world.

Perez, at age-26, is the better long-term pick of the two men. Training under the guidance of Eric Del Fierro at Alliance MMA in San Diego, Perez has displayed a quality ground game and has just enough power to keep his opponents honest. Any wild exchanges on the feet will greatly favor Rivera, but I have a hard time believing that anyone who is coached by Del Fierro and trains with UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz on a daily basis will fall into the trap of engaging his opponent in the only type of fight that he can win. I don't think he is going to come out on top, but Rivera is always a decent DraftKings play because his style of fighting typically results in the bout being finished, one way or another.

THE PICK: Perez

Flyweight

Ian McCall (13-5-1) v. Justin Scoggins (11-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: McCall ($9,000), Scoggins ($10,400)
Vegas Odds: McCall (+205), Scoggins (-245)

Saturday may not present the best card, but this is quite an underrated fight, pitting the veteran McCall against the up-and-coming Scoggins. McCall has wins over Dustin Ortiz, Brad Pickett, and Jussier Formiga on his resume, and he fought UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson, the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, to a draw. That should tell you all you need to know about his toughness and talent level. McCall has had countless fights in his UFC career either cancelled or rescheduled due to injuries -- in some instances his own, and in others, his opponents. He hasn't fought since January 2015: a unanimous decision loss to John Lineker in a fight where Lineker missed weight. McCall does everything well, but nothing great.

Scoggins is primarily a wrestler who has shown more power in his six UFC bouts than we were originally lead to believe that he had. The South Carolina native has won two straight bouts after a two-fight losing streak. His last time in the octagon was by far his best performance in the UFC - a unanimous decision win over rising star Ray Borg in February. McCall has never been knocked out in his entire career, and he's only been submitted once. If Scoggins is going to win, the numbers lead you to believe that it will be via decision.

Any DFS player is forced to pick upsets on every card, and this is one of mine. Although Scoggins has averaged nearly four and a half (4.47) takedowns per fight, McCall's takedown defense throughout his long UFC career has been elite (88.5 percent). I like him to come through as the underdog in this fight. Besides, how can you not love a guy who described his job before he started fighting as "partying" and his favorite striking technique as "face punch"?

THE PICK: McCall

Other Bouts


Light Heavyweight

Nikita Krylov (20-4-0) v. Ed Herman (24-11-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Krylov ($10,200), Herman ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Krylov (-155), Herman (+135)
THE PICK: Krylov

Welterweight

Ross Pearson (21-11-0, 1NC) v. Jorge Masvidal (29-11-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Pearson ($8,700), Masvidal ($10,700)
Vegas Odds: Pearson (+190), Masvidal (-230)
THE PICK: Masvidal

Heavyweight

Anthony Hamilton (14-5-0) v. Damian Grabowski (20-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Hamilton ($9,400), Grabowski ($10,000)
Vegas Odds: Hamilton (-115), Grabowski (-105)
THE PICK: Grabowski

Flyweight

Wilson Reis (20-6-0) v. Hector Sandoval (12-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Reis ($11,000), Sandoval ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Reis (-320), Sandoval (+260)
THE PICK: Reis

Welterweight

Michael Graves (6-0-0) v. Bojan Velickovic (14-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Graves ($10,500), Velickovic ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Graves (-235), Velickovic (+195)
THE PICK: Graves

Flyweight

Ryan Benoit (8-4-0) v. Fredy Serrano (3-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Benoit ($9,500), Serrano ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Benoit (+105), Serrano (-125)
THE PICK: Benoit

Lightweight

Cesar Arzamendia (7-3-0) v. Damien Brown (15-9-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Arzamendia ($9,600), Brown ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Arzamendia (+100), Brown (-120)
THE PICK: Arzamendia

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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