DraftKings MMA: UFC 205 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 205 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

In honor of Saturday's first historic card at the historic Madison Square Garden, we roll out our super-sized preview for Saturday's event in NYC.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

(Please note that DraftKings has altered their scoring system. The new point values are listed below and the rosters will now expand from 5 to 6 fighters).

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Lightweight Championship

(C) Eddie Alvarez (28-4-0) v. (C - Featherweight) Conor McGregor (20-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alvarez ($7,600), McGregor ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Alvarez (+135), McGregor (-155)

McGregor is the biggest star in the sport, so it's only fitting that he is headlining arguably the biggest card in history. Mystic Mac could promote the heck out of a fight with a corpse, but this is a terrific fight between two men with contrasting styles.

The way Alvarez finished Rafael Dos Anjos to win the UFC Lightweight Championship in July was probably a fluke, but he has been one of the best 155-pounders in the world for nearly a decade. Alvarez is 6-1 in his last seven fights, although three of the six wins were of the split-decision variety against some of the best the world has to offer in Anthony Pettis, Gilbert Melendez and Michael Chandler. Alvarez will land a devastating power shot here and there, but there's no doubt that he is at his best when he employs a wrestling-based attack. The Champ has averaged 3.9 takedowns per fight over the course of his brief UFC career, and given McGregor's power and speed on the feet, Alvarez's best chance of winning this fight is to try to grind out a decision. If Eddie wins this fight, it will almost certainly not be pretty to watch.

McGregor deserved to win the second Nate Diaz fight in August, but there still wasn't a whole lot separating the two men. One MMA analyst made a comment about McGregor prior to that fight that I wholeheartedly agree with: Conor's style of fighting isn't conducive for five-round fights. He pushes the pace so hard, particularly when he is in position to attack, that he tires out quickly and that, in turn, allows the opposition to pull away later in fights. McGregor did a better job in this area in the last Diaz fight, but I'm still worried about his gas tank. Everyone says that Conor's takedown defense has improved greatly, but we have yet to see it. While his career takedown defense in the UFC stands at a respectable 70 percent, the question is how will it hold up in the championship rounds when Alvarez is trying to grind this fight to the finish? I imagine McGregor will look healthier at lightweight than he did at featherweight, but he will end up sacrificing some of his power fighting in the higher weight class.

This fight breaks down like many of Conor's other recent fights - if Alvarez remains committed to the takedown and doesn't allow McGregor to get into his head, I like his chances of winning. McGregor figures to have a distinct advantage if the fight turns into a kickboxing match for any length of time. The great unknown is how Alvarez will handle the pressure and mind games of McGregor leading up to the fight. McGregor defeated Jose Aldo before he even stepped into the cage.

I've gone back and forth on my pick for this fight since it was announced. In the end I'm taking Alvarez because he has proven to be extremely durable over the years (he's been knocked out just once and that came nearly a decade ago), and I think he can outwork Conor in the championship rounds to steal a decision. I would be far from shocked if Conor scored a highlight-reel knockout on the biggest stage in combat sports, but Alvarez has earned the benefit of the doubt here.

THE PICK: Alvarez

Co-Main Event - Welterweight Championship

(C) Tyron Woodley (16-3-0) v. Stephen Thompson (13-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Woodley ($7,400), Thompson ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Woodley (+165), Thompson (-190)

On a card stacked with elite fights, this may be the one that I am looking forward to the most. Woodley's KO win over Robbie Lawler in July that won him the belt was viewed by many as a major upset, but considering Woodley has the power to drop any man on earth at the drop of a hat, perhaps we shouldn't have been too surprised. Even though T-Wood is going to have the power advantage over Thompson, getting involved in striking exchanges with Wonderboy will likely cost him his title. Woodley needs to totally rely on his wrestling background to win here, perhaps more than any fight he's been in in his entire career. A grinding, drawn out fight benefits the champion.

I have been quoted on numerous occasions as saying Thompson will defeat any man in the welterweight division in a striking battle and I'm sticking with that prediction. The difference between Wonderboy's striking exploits and those of his last two opponents, Rory MacDonald and John Hendricks, were laughable. Thompson tuned up both of those men on the feet with ease. It was truly impressive to watch. Everyone thought that Hendricks would try to attack Thompson with takedowns, but he decided to stand and trade instead and he ended up paying for it. It would be a grave mistake for Woodley to follow a similar game plan.

This fight comes down to whether or not you believe in Thompson's takedown defense. Everyone considers it a weakness, but Wonderboy is over 81 percent for his career in terms of takedowns defended during his time in the UFC. He frequently trains with his brother-in-law Chris Weidman, so we know he is getting constant practice in that area. I actually think this fight is a bit closer than the Vegas odds indicate and Woodley isn't a bad value play, but I have been the conductor on the Thompson Hype Train since it left the station, and I'm not hopping off now. 

THE PICK: Thompson

Women's Strawweight Championship

(C) Joanna Jedrzejczyk (12-0-0) v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Jedrzejczyk ($9.300), Kowalkiewicz ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Jedrzejczyk (-400), Kowalkiewicz (+325)

We are at the end of 2016 and two Polish women are fighting for a UFC Championship -- what a time to be alive! In all seriousness, this is a matchup of two of the most gifted strikers in any division. Jedrzejczyk has won countless World Muay Thai titles over the years, and she hits considerably harder than any other woman in the division. She was challenged early on in her last fight against top challenger Claudia Gadelha, but by the time the championship rounds came around, she was in complete control. Joanna doesn't get hit often, but she has proven that she can take damage when necessary.

Kowalkiewicz is 3-0 in the UFC, and her last fight, a split-decision win over former title challenger Rose Namajunas in July, earned her this opportunity. Karolina is similar to Joanna in the sense that virtually all of her offense comes from strikes, although she tends to throw more kicks than the champion. It would probably be in Kowalkiewicz's best interest to mix in a takedown attempt now and then, but she is giving away three inches in height and that would be playing away from her strengths.

I could easily see this fight going the entire 25 minutes, which would make both women poor DraftKings plays. Jedrzejczyk is my pick to retain for three reasons: 1) we have seen her hold her cardio deep into five-round fights in the past, 2) Karolina tends to absorb a bit more punishment during her striking exchanges than the champ, and 3), and most important, there isn't a strawweight on earth I would pick over Joanna in what figures to be a kickboxing match. Kowalkiewicz's DK salary should probably be another $300 or so higher, which makes her a value play in theory, but I still don't think she is going to win.

THE PICK: Jedrzejczyk

Middleweight

Chris Weidman (13-1-0) v. Yoel Romero (11-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Weidman ($8,500), Romero ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Weidman (-170), Romero (+150)

It would have been a travesty if Weidman didn't get a chance to appear on the first ever MSG card. Thankfully him, his management team and the UFC were able to work out their differences to get him a fight. Weidman hasn't fought since losing his UFC Middleweight Championship to Luke Rockhold last December. Chris was actually in pretty good shape in that fight before a few ill-advised mistakes changed the momentum and cost him his title. Fighting in front of his family and friends for the first time, I expect the best version of Weidman that we have ever seen.

Romero is a freak athlete and a former Olympian, but he is 39 years old, has a history of PED use, and most importantly, (at least for the context of this fight) has a history of gassing out. Romero is undefeated in the UFC, and sports victories over Jacare Souza, Tim Kennedy, Derek Brunson and Lyoto Machida, although the Jacare and Kennedy wins were controversial. Romero is as dangerous as any middleweight in the world in Round 1, but he struggles considerably from then on.

As long as Weidman is able to survive the first five minutes, I think he wins this fight. It may be a three-round decision, but I imagine he will win nonetheless. The strength of Romero's game remains his wrestling, but he isn't going to have much, if any, advantage in that area against a talented guy like Weidman. My guess here is that Romero will go all-out for an immediate finish and Weidman will survive the initial flurry and control the fight from there. I can't pick against a guy who has been waiting his entire life for this opportunity.

THE PICK: Weidman

Note: The welterweight bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Donald Cerrone has been removed from the card after Gastelum failed to make weight.

Welterweight

Kelvin Gastelum (13-2-0) v. Donald Cerrone (31-7-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Gastelum ($7,300), Cerrone ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Gastelum (+130), Cerrone (-150)
THE PICK: Gastelum

Women's Bantamweight

Miesha Tate (18-6-0) v. Raquel Pennington (8-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Tate ($9,100), Pennington ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Tate (-185), Pennington (+160)

Tate no-showed her last fight against Amanda Nunes in July, and while that happens to every competitor now and then, it's particularly problematic when the no-show occurs in a title fight. So now, just over four months later, Tate is being forced to fight an opponent in Pennington who is seemingly nothing more than roster depth, despite the solid run that she is currently on. While the Nunes loss went down in the books as a submission defeat for Tate, the reason she lost was because she was obliterated on the feet. Miesha has never had all that much power, but I'd be shocked if her striking didn't appear to be significantly improved against Pennington.

Currently riding a three-fight winning streak, Pennington is 5-2 during her time in the UFC, and one of those two losses was a split-decision setback to Holly Holm in which many people think Pennington should have won. Pennington isn't a great athlete and doesn't have one elite skill to fall back on, so it's surprising that she has had this much success. Pennington's greatest attribute is her toughness. She's been in a lot of fights and she isn't going to beat herself.

I'm not a huge fan of either of these two fighters, but I think Tate is clearly better than Pennington. They're similar in a lot of ways, but Tate is an elite submission specialist and she has at least had some success against top competition. There appears to be a high probability that this will be the high-water mark of Pennington's UFC career. Tate probably deserves to be a bigger favorite than what she is currently listed at.

THE PICK: Tate

Featherweight

Frankie Edgar (19-5-1) v. Jeremy Stephens (25-12-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Edgar ($9,200), Stephens ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Edgar (-350), Stephens (+290)

It's rare that you will ever see Edgar as discombobulated as he was in his loss to Jose Aldo in July. He was a step slow defensively, his combinations always seemed to arrive a split second late, and most concerningly, he appeared visibly exhausted as the fight progressed. I expected a much better performance, just as I expect a strong performance from him in this fight. It's difficult to believe that Edgar's game suddenly dropped off a cliff overnight.

Stephens has actually lost three of his last five fights, but he is coming off a strong effort in a unanimous-decision victory over Renan Barao in May. Stephens may have more power in his hands than any fighter in the UFC's featherweight division. The 30-year-old is also a decent wrestler, although he isn't going to want to go that route against Edgar.

The issue for Stephens is that he tends to load up on most every shot he throws in search of the knockout, and that isn't going to work against Edgar. Frankie gets beat with movement and combinations, not with repeated attempts at landing power shots. Edgar certainly looked terrible in the Aldo fight, but everyone seems to forget that Aldo has been viewed as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world for years. There's no shame in losing to him, even in a landslide. I think Edgar bounces back in a big way in this fight.

THE PICK: Edgar

Lightweight

Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0-0) v. Michael Johnson (18-10-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($9,000), Johnson ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-290), Johnson (+210)

I am certainly not the only person who feels that Nurmagomedov would be UFC Lightweight Champion right now had he not missed so much time with various injuries. Khabib has fought just once since he dominated former champion Rafael Dos Anjos in April 2014. Through his first seven UFC bouts, Khabib is averaging an insane 6.7 takedowns per-fight. It's a truly disturbing statistic. He's a far better striker than he gets credit for, and he can finish a fight from virtually any position on the mat. Khabib's all-around excellence makes him nearly impossible to game plan for.

Johnson is coming off a terrific first-round KO of Dustin Poirier in September that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Johnson had lost two straight prior to the Poirier fight, although he was consistently banged up leading into those fights, and that no doubt played a role in his performances. MJ leans on his power and output in the striking game, but Nurmagomedov rarely gets hit on the feet. Johnson's takedown defense throughout his UFC career has been exceptional (81 percent), but Khabib is a different kind of animal.

I think it's fair to say that the real Michael Johnson is more like the guy we saw in the Poirier fight, as opposed to his two losses to Nate Diaz and Beneil Dariush prior to that. That being said, there's just no way that I am picking him (or likely any other lightweight) over Khabib. If Nurmagomedov can manage to remain healthy, I think he is going to be UFC Lightweight Champion within the next 12 months. He seems to be twice as talented as anyone the UFC can put in the cage against him.

THE PICK: Nurmagomedov

Edit: The scheduled middleweight debut of Rashad Evans against Tim Kennedy has been cancelled due to a problem with Evans' medicals.

Middleweight

Rashad Evans (24-5-1) v. Tim Kennedy (18-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Evans ($7,500), Kennedy ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Evans (+205), Kennedy (-245)

Other Bouts

Middleweight

Vicente Luque (10-5-1) v. Belal Muhammad (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Luque ($7,900), Muhammad ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Luque (+130), Muhammad (-170)
THE PICK: Muhammad

Lightweight

Jim Miller (27-8-0, 1NC) v. Thiago Alves (26-10-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Miller ($7,800), Alves ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: SMiller (+150), Alves (-170)
THE PICK: Alves

Middlweight

Rafael Natal (21-7-1) v. Tim Boetsch (19-10-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Natal ($8,100), Boetsch ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Natal (-160), Boetsch (+140)
THE PICK: Natal

Women's Bantamweight

Liz Carmouche (9-5-0) v. Kaitlin Chookagian (8-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Carmouche ($8,000), Chookagian ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Carmouche (+160), Chookagian (-185)
THE PICK: Carmouche

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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