28-Year-Old Outfielder – Cincinnati Reds
2015 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
It's convenient to blame Bruce's struggles on the knee injury that sidelined him in early May, but it might still be the primary cause for his struggles. He was first sidelined on May 4 and the expect...
Jay Bruce Contract Information:
Agreed to a six-year, $51 million contract with the Reds in December 2010. The deal includes an option for a seventh year that would push the value to $63 million.
The Reds have made it clear that nearly everyone on the team is available in trade talks, including Bruce.
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|Preseason||Subscribe now to see our 2015 projections for Jay Bruce||3-Year Averages||150||622||559||83||137||62||33||2||27||91||9||3||56||163||0||5||2||.245||.314||.456||.770|
|Career (View All)||1123||4,599||4,111||595||1,018||445||216||21||208||638||57||34||427||1,113||3||36||22||.248||.319||.462||.781|
|Sep. 13||StL||Did not play.|
|Last 7 Days||23||1||4||2||0||0||3||2||7||0||0||0||2||2||.174||.222||.261||.483|
|Last 14 Days||51||4||8||2||0||2||5||2||13||0||0||0||3||2||.157||.179||.314||.493|
|Last 30 Days||108||18||23||3||0||7||15||8||28||0||0||0||3||2||.213||.261||.435||.696|
Jay Bruce: MLB Games Played By Position
Jay Bruce Split Stats (View Full Split Stats)
|Year||Age||Lg||Tm||PA||AB||Walk Rate||Strikeout Rate||BB/K Ratio||Contact Rate||BABIP||Isolated Power|
|Preseason||Subscribe now to see our 2015 projections for Jay Bruce||3-Year Averages||622||559||9%||26.2%||0.34||71%||.298||.211|
2015 Stat Review for Jay Bruce As compared to the top 200 hitters in 2014 (min 400 PA)
Good contact skills often lead to better fantasy stats.
SLG and ISO are useful indicators of power.
Patience at the plate often leads to positive outcomes.
A couple of useful stats for evaluating a hitter.
Cincinnati Reds Roster
MajorsBailey, Homer (P)
AAABalester, Collin (P)
AABlandino, Alex (SS)
A+Buckley, Sean (3B)
AArmstrong, Mark (P)
Jay Bruce: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
It took Bruce 20 games to hit his first homer of the season, and he ended April with the sole long ball. He subsequently hit a combined 17 homers in May and June, perfectly illustrating his streakiness. There is some hope that Bruce is entering his prime years, but 2013 didn't bring any evidence - just more of the same. Mind you, 30-100 seasons aren't bad by any measure, but he hasn't improved his contact rate at a point in his career where that next step should take place. A power spike could theoretically happen, but owners shouldn't rely upon him becoming a high-average, elite power hitter.
Has Bruce hit his upper plateau, or is there another peak left for him to climb? On one hand, Bruce turns 26 at the start of the 2013 season, and hitters often peak in their age 27-29 seasons. His isolated power is trending upward, hitting a career-high .263 last season. On the other hand, his contact rate hasn't improved over the last three years, in fact taking a slight turn for the worse in 2012. Our guess is that his batting average won't show much luck-independent improvement, but there could be a few 40-homer seasons in his future if he remains in Cincinnati.
Bruce's career trajectory is on the rise. He saw career highs in every major counting category to go along with a career-high walk rate and isolated slugging percentage. He improved his performance against left-handers, at least in terms of hitting for power. He has one of the better right-field arms in the game, for those of you in simulation games like Strat-O-Matic or Scoresheet. His low contact rate (73 percent in each of the last two seasons) will prevent him from being an elite hitter for average, but stardom is on his doorstep otherwise. At age 25 in 2012, there's still room for improvement.
Bruce started slowly for the Reds in 2010, hitting into a decent share of bad luck in April, mixed in with a low contact rate. The luck turned around midseason and Bruce finished the year on fire, ending up with a career-high .846 OPS. He's capable of hitting 30-35 homers at his peak, which might occur in the next couple of seasons. He has a big home/road split, but any concern over that has been washed away by his six-year, $51 million contract extension signed in the offseason. The only factor keeping him from being among the elite fantasy outfielders is a lack of stolen bases - he seems unlikely to top double-digits in any given season.
While there are signs that Bruce is *this* close to breaking out (.222 BABIP, improved walk rate and contact rate), his troubles against lefties are a significant problem. Only two of his 22 homers were against southpaws, and he was starting to get benched against select lefties before his wrist injury in July. Keep in mind that he turns just 23 in April, so there's plenty of time for him to improve, but hope that the Reds (and Dusty Baker) share your patience.
Bruce's big major league splash and preseason hype makes his .254/.314/.453 season seem like a disappointment, but keep in mind he did this as a 21-year-old, with only 115 games above A-ball under his belt. Bruce needs to improve his pitch selection (33 walks, 110 strikeouts in 413 at-bats) and lefties throttled him (.190/.263/.299 in 137 at-bats). But improvement in both areas is possible and likely - get him now in dynasty leagues, while the price is still low.
The Reds are in a tricky spot with Bruce, seeing him advance far quicker than they expected. While he still strikes out too frequently, he's very close to being ready for the majors. Yet the team has a surplus of outfielders and new manager Dusty "I haven't seen him play yet" Baker is someone who seems less inclined to pencil him in the lineup right away. The Reds' trade of Josh Hamilton might open up the door for Bruce to start in Cincinnati right away, although at press time there was still some talk that the team was interested in signing Mike Cameron. He's adjusted rapidly to the level of competition with each promotion, so he's likely to succeed right away once he gets that shot.
Bruce had another solid campaign, tearing apart the low-A Midwest League at age 19. Obviously it will get tougher as he climbs the ladder, but so far he's fulfilling the potential the Reds saw when they made him their first-round pick in the 2005 draft. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts some (after all, he's a Red -- who in their organization doesn't need to cut down on his strikeouts?) but if he's not already owned in your Ultra League, you should put him near the top of your prospect lists.
Bruce was drafted out of high school in Texas with the number 12 overall pick in the 2005 draft. His power potential is significant, but he needs quite a bit of refining, particularly in managing the strike zone.