29-Year-Old Pitcher – Free Agent
2015 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
2014 was a big year for Cueto -- he proved both that his previous successes were not a fluke and that he could stay healthy through the course of a full season even with his unique delivery. Cueto did...
Johnny Cueto Contract Information:
Cueto's $10 million option was exercised by the Reds in October of 2014.
Cueto will start Game 2 of the World Series against the Mets on Wednesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
To instantly reveal our fantasy analysis of every player – including Johnny Cueto – simply subscribe now.
|2015 (Multiple Teams)||29||MAJ||CIN/KC||32||32||2||212.0||194||81||21||176||46||11||13||0||0||0||3.44||1.13|
|Preseason||Subscribe now to see our 2015 projections for Johnny Cueto||3-Year Averages||26||26||0||173.8||140||49||14||154||44||14||6||0||0||0||2.54||1.06|
|Career (View All)||227||226||6||1,420.3||1,268||520||145||1,171||410||96||70||0||–||–||3.30||1.18|
Age is determined on July 1st of each season. Jump To: ▼ Advanced StatsNo No Yes
Johnny Cueto Split Stats (View Full Split Stats)
|Year||Age||Lg||Tm||G||GS||IP||K/9||BB/9||K/BB||HR/9||GB/FB Ratio||Strand %||Fastball||ERA||FIP||BABIP|
|2015 (Multiple Teams)||29||MAJ||CIN/KC||32||32||212.0||7.47||1.95||3.83||0.89||1.32||72.6%||92.6 MPH||3.44||3.50||.291|
|Preseason||Subscribe now to see our 2015 projections for Johnny Cueto||3-Year Averages||26||26||173.8||7.98||2.28||3.50||0.73||–||79.4%||–||2.54||3.23||.273|
2015 Stat Review for Johnny Cueto As compared to the top 100 starting pitchers in 2014 (min 145 in)
A collection of stats that measure different skills.
A few general measures of a pitcher's effectiveness.
Balls in play avg. and % of runners left stranded.
Johnny Cueto: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
Cueto presents one of the tougher draft decisions for 2014. When healthy, he pitched like an ace once again. Alas, "when healthy" is the operative phrase, as Cueto had multiple trips to the DL, all related to the same injury that knocked him out of his playoff start against the Giants in 2012. He modified his delivery to adjust for those oblique/back/shoulder injuries on his last return from the DL, with two good regular season starts before he was shelled in the Wild Card playoff game against the Pirates. How much will that start carry over into 2014, and will Cueto be able to stay on the mound? This is a big contract season for Cueto to boot, giving him all the more incentive to stay out there. He'll be one of the bigger boom-or-bust starting pitchers in redraft leagues.
For two years running Cueto has performed beyond what his ERA estimators suggest he should, posting sub-3.00 ERAs despite a strikeout rate that peaked at 7.1 K/9 in 2012. How does Cueto do it? He cut his walk rate to a stingy 2.0 BB/9, he suppressed homers (0.6 HR/9) despite pitching in a homer-friendly park, and he completely shut down the opposing team's running game (allowing just one stolen base against him each of the last two seasons). The only red flag is the oblique injury Cueto suffered in the playoffs - this after a season in which he and every other Reds starter made 30-plus starts. Cueto is the rare player that could bring you a profit while others warn of regression.
Cueto's brilliant 2011 season was book-ended by injuries, limiting him to 156 innings. In between, however, he was the Reds' stopper, falling just a few innings short of qualifying for the ERA title (and, as it turns out, falling just behind Clayton Kershaw anyhow). Once again, he traded strikeouts and walks for more balls in play, which can be a dangerous combination in the Great American Ball Park. But it's worth noting that he has not lost any velocity from his average fastball dating back to his rookie season - so this is more of a conscious change than a concession to lessened abilities. Because Cueto hasn't topped 200 innings in a season and because of his drop in strikeouts, you shouldn't pay full freight on him, but if he can remain healthy he'll still turn a profit on your purchase.
A quick look at Cueto's numbers show that he has made an effort to become more pitch efficient at the cost of a few extra strikeouts. He lowered his walk rate and his home run rate two years in a row, and the tradeoff has been worth it. Cueto lowered his ERA below 4.00 and threw more innings than he was in his previous two seasons. Look for more of the same in 2011.
Cueto's strikeout rated dropped significantly (8.17 K/9IP down to 6.93) in 2009, though some of that was at the behest of the Reds, who wanted him to be more pitch-efficient than in his rookie season. We're not convinced, however, that's the sole reason for the drop. Cueto's velocity on his fastball declined over the summer before he needed a brief DL trip to rest his shoulder. This came after he pitched in winter ball and in the WBC last spring. This year, the Reds prevented him from playing winter ball, citing an "extreme fatigue" clause in his contract. There's a lot of talent with Cueto, but also a lot of reasons for concern.
Like teammate Jay Bruce, Cueto might be viewed as a small disappointment because he debuted with such a splash. Look at his season in context - he's a 22-year-old rookie with hardly any experience in the upper levels of the minors. We'll take 158 strikeouts in 174 innings anytime. Health-permitting, Cueto will have his share of good seasons. The next step for him will be to learn how to be pitch-efficient. Far too often he had to leave short of six full innings pitched after racking up a high pitch-count.
Like Jay Bruce, Cueto built off a great 2006 campaign with an even better 2007, tearing through three levels of the minors. He improved as he went up the ladder, including four sizzling starts at Triple-A Louisville. At this point in time, he might even be more refined than teammate Homer Bailey. Depending on what other moves the offseason brings, the Reds might be tempted to insert Cueto immediately into the starting rotation, especially if he has a good spring. They might instead want to have him begin in Louisville to develop a little more and refrain from starting his service time clock, or have him work out of the bullpen at the major league level, using the "Earl Weaver" method of breaking in prospect pitchers.
A graduate of the Reds' Dominican Academy, Cueto really took off in 2006, breezing through low-A Dayton before holding his own in 12 starts at high-A Sarasota as a 20-year old. He might need a little more time to master the Florida State League, but it's at least encouraging to see he sustained his high strikeout rate upon being promoted. He may not have the star upside of Homer Bailey, but Cueto could be a building block for the Reds' future.