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MLB Daily Games Strategy: Avoiding Outcome Bias

Renee Miller

Renee Miller

Neuroscientist at the University of Rochester and author of Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team?. I cover daily fantasy basketball for RotoWire and write for RotoViz about fantasy football.

First base is either the easiest or hardest position to fill in your daily fantasy lineup. From your 1B, you want power, plain and simple. There isn't usually a ton of guesswork or last minute lineup swaps to gain a platoon advantage at 1B, either, like there is at C. Playing first base isn't as physically demanding as catcher (although Kelly Johnson sure made it look otherwise Monday night), so you typically see the same faces out there night after night, barring injury. On the one hand, this should make it easier because you know who these guys are. On the other, it makes it harder, because there are so many good options every night. The other thing we have to consider is that power is the most unpredictable facet of the game. Your home run leading first basemen (or any position) will just as often hit one out as strike out four times.

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