This article is part of our The Saber's Edge series.
Today, I am going to look into some struggling hitters to see if there are any real concerns from possible injuries or are their struggles just from an unlucky month of baseball.
Reasons for worry: .185 AVG, 2 HR, 0 SB
Truthfully, I had no idea McCutchen was struggling so much until I looked at some various leaderboards. The main reason for the lack of knowledge is I don't own any shares of him in my few fantasy leagues. He does has a lot going on, so I will start with the elephant in the room... his knee which he injured on April 10th. Here is a report from a few days after the injury.
"My 80 percent is pretty good. I can play with that," McCutchen said. "(The knee) is going to be an everyday occurrence for me for who knows how long, but I can battle through it."
McCutchen removed himself late in Friday's game after he felt left knee pain. He has had sporadic playing time for more than a month. Yet his timing remains intact.
Sadly, the injury was only three days into the season, so no decent amount of 2015 data exists before and after the injury, so here are some stats from 2014 to 2015 which I like to examine when looking at an injured player focusing on the player's power, speed and contact.
Stat: 2014, 2015
Power
ISO: .228, .109
HR/FB: 14%, 6%
FB&HR Dist: 293 ft, 292 ft
Today, I am going to look into some struggling hitters to see if there are any real concerns from possible injuries or are their struggles just from an unlucky month of baseball.
Reasons for worry: .185 AVG, 2 HR, 0 SB
Truthfully, I had no idea McCutchen was struggling so much until I looked at some various leaderboards. The main reason for the lack of knowledge is I don't own any shares of him in my few fantasy leagues. He does has a lot going on, so I will start with the elephant in the room... his knee which he injured on April 10th. Here is a report from a few days after the injury.
"My 80 percent is pretty good. I can play with that," McCutchen said. "(The knee) is going to be an everyday occurrence for me for who knows how long, but I can battle through it."
McCutchen removed himself late in Friday's game after he felt left knee pain. He has had sporadic playing time for more than a month. Yet his timing remains intact.
Sadly, the injury was only three days into the season, so no decent amount of 2015 data exists before and after the injury, so here are some stats from 2014 to 2015 which I like to examine when looking at an injured player focusing on the player's power, speed and contact.
Stat: 2014, 2015
Power
ISO: .228, .109
HR/FB: 14%, 6%
FB&HR Dist: 293 ft, 292 ft
HR/Batted Ball: 5.7%, 2.6%
Hard Contact: 41%, 35%
Speed
Speed Score: 5.8, 4.4
IFH%: 12.6%, 5.9%
(2B+3B)/(1B+2B+3B): 43%, 25%
Time to 1B: 4.2 sec, 4.3 sec
Contact
K%: 18% to 16%
Contact%: 78%, 78%
His stats really lineup with the knee injury. The upper body is not affected by the knees so he is still making contact. Once he makes contact, his production really goes downhill. His power numbers are either down or just steady. His speed values are also down or steady. The lack of speed is probably seen in his power numbers as he is not able to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples.
While I don't look to use stolen base values to measure speed, the fact that he has only attempted one stolen base shows he has no faith in his knee or doesn't want to reinjure it.
In my opinion he is hurt and his owners will probably have to ride out the injury depending on their other outfield options. As for when he may turn around his season, I would look for two factors. First, monitor to see if he starts to attempt some stolen bases. This will mean he thinks his knee is better, which then means the knee is probably better. Second, monitor his ISO value on this page and look for an upward turn in the graph.
Reasons for worry: .222 AVG, 4 HRs, 27 R + RBI
Encarnacion didn't play much during spring training with an injured back. I don't like players with back injuries. They never seem to shake the injuries; it may be the beginning of the player's eventual decline. The injury has not cost him any time in 2015 as he has played in all 28 games so far, but his production has not been the same as last season.
Stat: 2014, 2015
Power
ISO: .279, .148
HR/FB: 18%, 13%
FB&HR Dist: 288ft, 287ft
HR/Batted Ball: 8.6%, 4.6%
Hard Contact%: 38%, 23%
Speed
Speed Score: 3.0. 1.6
IFH%: 5%, 2%
(2B+3B)/(1B+2B+3B): 45%, 25%
Contact
K%: 15%, 20%
Contact%: 82%, 76%
Almost everything is headed in the wrong direction. We don't expect any speed from him, but even it is down. He is just having issues making solid contact, if any contact at all. The 5% increase in strike outs is the main reason for the lower batting average.
Like McCutchen, Encarnacion will probably need to be in most lineups because his 60% is better than the players available on the waiver wire 100% ability. I would look at a couple of items to see if he may finally turn it around. He needs to start making more contact and FanGraphs has a nice setting which allows you to look at his past couple of weeks of data (77% Contact%). Additionally, look at is ISO and K% graphs to see if they are trending in the right direction.
Reasons for worry: 0 HR, .203 AVG
While no one expected Martinez to repeat his 2014 season, no one really saw him being this bad. The complete lack of homeruns is the worst part. Additionally, he has only one extra base hit. He has been dealing with leg and knee issues since spring training thereby making him a mess right now. Here are those not so great stats:
Stat: 2014, 2015
Power
ISO: .230, .013
HR/FB: 16%, 0%
FB&HR Dist: 298ft, 257ft
HR/Batted Ball: 6.1%, 0%
Hard Contact%: 39%, 24%
Speed
Speed Score: 2.0, 1.1
IFH%: 4.2%, 0%
(2B+3B)/(1B+2B+3B): 27%, 6%
Contact
K%: 7%, 10%
Contact%: 92%, 90%
The small declines in the speed and contact numbers normally wouldn't bother me, but they can't be ignored when combined with the power numbers. There is no power. None. Where he is at, there is only two options. Continue to hit with literally zero power or hit with more. He is at the bottom.
I would look at sitting Martinez right now. Anyone should be better. I would sit him until he hits a legitimate home run. The main issue with him is any extra base hit, especially a home run, will make his power stats look like they are getting better. To find a significant improvement, I would look for a 10 game span at Baseball-reference.com where his triple slash line over a 10 day span is better than .250/.350/.400. He really needs to start hitting with some power to get his season turned around.
Reasons for worry: .200 AVG, 2 HR, 0 SB
After the last few seasons, I bet no one expected Gonzalez to make it through a season healthy. Right now, he says he is healthy.
"I'm not in a good place. I'm still hitting (.197)," he said. "But I'm happy that I'm healthy, and that I'm playing, and that we are winning. I think we are having a good month so far as a team."
Well, the above fantasy related numbers don't support his claim, but it is time to dig little deeper.
Stat: 2014, 2015
Power
ISO: .192, .129
HR/FB: 16%, 13%
FB&HR Dist: 295 ft, 286 ft
HR/Batted Ball: 5.8, 3.1
Hard Contact%: 35%, 25%
Speed
Speed Score: 4.6, 1.5
IFH%: 2.2%, 3.4%
(2B+3B)/(1B+2B+3B): 48%, 50%
Contact
K%: 25%, 24%
Contact%: 71%, 69%
He doesn't have the huge drop in production like the previous three hitters. Almost some of his decline could be from aging. With just one or two good games, he could really turn around his season. I might consider him a buy low candidate right now. While he is never going to produce at an MVP type level, he could see a nice increase with a little regression.
