Derek VanRiper and I had a discussion about Swinging Strike Rate as an indicator for future success, and Rick Wolf cited that metric as a reason why he and Glenn Colton loved Corey Kluber in Peter Kreutzer's Magazine, in their Champions section for winning AL Tout Wars. A high Swinging Strike Percentage (SwStr%) should obviously translate into a high strikeout rate, but on occasion the latter stat can lag behind. A pitcher might not have mastered a secondary pitch, or otherwise has command issues that have prevented him from maxing out his strikeout rate. But if a pitcher can miss bats when they swing, it's an obvious indicator of good times to come. Before Kluber's monster breakout in 2014, he had SwStr's over 10.0% in all four years in which he pitched in the majors, a rate that would put him in the top 20 among qualified starting pitchers.

Can we find a 2015 breakout using SwStr% from 2014? Here are those (qualified) starters at 10.0% or better (all stats courtesy of Fangraphs):

Most of the usual elite tier usual suspects are here, but three names stood out to me on this list:

Tyson Ross (ADP: 101, RW Rank: 155) - Ross's SwStr% and K% exploded in 2013 thanks to a big mechanical change with the Padres, and he was even better last season. My reason for concern? The flexor strain in his forearm that ended his season, and high reliance on his slider, a pitch he threw 41.2% of the time. Give him 200+ innings, and he could give you 220 K's. But I'm wary of giving him that many innings.

Drew Hutchison (ADP: 261, RW Rank: 298) - Hutchison's 10.8% SwStr% was matched with a 23.4% K percentage, not bad for his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. I don't like that he was pounded at home (4.73 ERA) and gave up 17 of his 23 homers against lefties - I'm certain teams will try to platoon even more against him next year. But this is a growth stock, and I predict his ADP will rise with good outings this spring (and his projection will be upgraded tonight!).

Yordano Ventura (ADP and RW Rank: 148) - We've all seen the fastball velocity, and many expect him to be ascendant as the Royals' ace with James Shields gone. As with Tyson Ross, Ventura's durability is what's holding him back - he dealt with elbow fatigue, back stiffness and shoulder tightness during the regular season, and of course added innings in the playoffs. But this is one case where the strikeouts will match up with the stuff soon.

If you lower the IP threshold to 120 IP last year (selecting 120 was not completely arbitrary - I wanted to eliminate relievers and included those that made at least 15-20 starts), 11 more pitchers make the list, including a lot of last year's breakouts like Carlos Carrasco, Jacob deGrom, Matt Shoemaker and Collin McHugh. If you're looking for a Black Swan in the group, and we're talking one that swam in the waters trolled by the Exxon Valdez post oil-spill, Edwin Jackson chimed in at 10.8%, the second-highest rate of his career. Oh well, no metric is perfect!

How about using SwStr%, or the lack thereof, as a negative indicator? Can we find pitchers that had great seasons in 2014 and, using their low rate here, identify potential overdrafts? I'm not sure we can - after all, most leagues chase strikeouts and these pitchers by their nature are low-strikeout guys. Unless there's a low SwStr% and an average or higher K%, chances are that a low BABIP would be just as strong an indicator. Nonetheless, here are the bottom 20 among qualified starters in SwStr% from last year (once again, via Fangraphs):

This list might indicate why some are warning against or shying away from Doug Fister (ADP 152, RW Rank 97) and Chris Tillman (ADP 266, RW Rank 198), but neither pitcher is a cornerstone pitcher that teams are building around - they're complimentary parts. Moreover, many here had bad seasons, so it's hard to define these as busts. I suppose that Fister and Rick Porcello might be the most likely to underperform this year using this metric and their 2014 projection as a baseline.

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Here are a couple of news items from Sunday that I found interesting:

- Jackie Bradley Jr. has attracted some interest from the Braves as a potential trade target. The Braves' outfield is hardly set - there's Nick Markakis (freshly signed to a four-year deal, but also fresh off of neck fusion surgery), B.J. Melvin Upton Jr., and some combination of Jonny Gomes and Zoilo Almonte in left field. Bradley is utterly buried in Boston, so a trade would be great for him. He was overmatched last year, but he's a superior defender, which could afford him multiple opportunities for a rebuilding team like the Braves.

- Homer Bailey and Cliff Lee are both slightly behind the schedule set for their respective teammates in spring training. Bailey (ADP 218, RW Rank 215) isn't yet throwing from a mound, though he has been throwing on the side as recovers from a flexor mass tendon injury. Bailey's slowed progress is why I'm concerned about Tyson Ross - obviously no two injuries are exactly the same in terms of severity of the tear, placement of the tear, ability to heal, etc... But Mat Latos also had a slower-than-expected recovery from the injury. Bailey has no helium in drafts right now - at that price, I'm willing to take the chance. Lee (ADP 165, RW Rank 153) is throwing every third day instead of every other day like his teammates. He lost a full mph off his average fastball, and his SwStr% dropped from 9.4% to 7.8%. I'm less enthusiastic about my purchase of him in the XFL than I was at the time in November.