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Projecting Josh Hamilton
Posted by Jeff Erickson at 3/23/2007 1:31:00 AM
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I'm doing a sweep of players who need to have projections, and I've now gotten to Josh Hamilton. I think I'm going to open this up to the floor, to see what everyone else thinks. It's nearly impossible to project what he's going to do this year, given his sparse track record. Here's his professional experience:

Hamilton's minor league stats

That's right - only 15 games since 2002, and only 23 career games at Double-A in 2001.

We usually say to ignore spring training stats, but what happens when they are the most relevant stats a player has accumulated in the last five years?


I get a Chris Shelton with less power and more running sort of vibe. Hot and cold, trying to get his major-league feet under him. It just depends on how long he can keep this hot streak up.
Posted by jarnold at 3/23/2007 6:13:00 AM
7 HRs, 40 runs, 40 RBIs, .275 BA
Posted by catman2051 at 3/23/2007 10:45:00 AM
Maybe he will pull a Brandon Phillips and really put it together and become a major league ready player going forward.
Posted by nayfel at 3/23/2007 11:14:00 AM
"What happens when spring training stats are the most relevant stats a player has accumulated in the last five years?" You still treat them like spring training stats. A Confederate dollar doesn't become legal tender just because it's the only dollar in your wallet. How many players have won starting jobs because they hit .400 in the spring, only to be benched by Memorial Day? Countless. Any projection I'd come up with would be a guess, because Jeff is right ... ther's no real track record ... but I'd guess low. I'd presume Hamilton misses half the season due to injury (he hasn't been asked to play a full season in a long time), and I'd also bet on a long stretch where he's not hitting .200.
Posted by sixsigmagus at 3/24/2007 6:40:00 AM
What can the Reds do with him? I have heard that the Reds might put him on the DL at some point (shin splints?) and have him do an extended rehab assignment for game experience purposes. It sounds kind of like a Rule 5 loophole to me.
Posted by OB1jakearoni at 3/26/2007 6:18:00 PM
It looks like the "Brandon Phillips" theory won the day on this one.
Posted by bscwik at 5/2/2007 3:13:00 PM

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