32-Year-Old Quarterback – Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 Fantasy Football Outlook
Roethlisberger has thrived on highly efficient play but has thrown more than 500 passes just twice in his nine-year career, with a career high of 513. He's also been unable to stay healthy – although ...
Ben Roethlisberger Contract Information:
Restructured his contract with the Steelers in February of 2012. The six-year deal runs through 2015 and is worth $102 million, with $33.2 million guaranteed.
Roethlisberger completed 19-of-31 passes for 179 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Steelers’ 20-7 win over the Browns on Sunday. He also ran for nine yards on four carries with a fumble. Despite the win though, Pittsburgh will miss the playoffs for the second straight season.
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|Passing||Pass Distance||Big Pass Games||Rushing||Fumbles|
|2013 Proj||31||PIT||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Ben Roethlisberger|
Age is determined on September 1st of each season.
|Fantasy Points Per Game||Passing Stats||Red Zone Passes||Red Zone Runs|
|2013 Proj||31||PIT||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Ben Roethlisberger|
Age is determined on September 1st of each season.
|Snap Count||Passing||Pass Distance||Rushing||Fumbles||Red Zone Passes||Red Zone Runs|
A blank stat line is used above whenever a player was not on the field for any plays in the game that week.
Ben Roethlisberger: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
Exclusive Fantasy Analysis (FREE PREVIEW)Moreover, Steelers president Art Rooney II issued a statement as well, noting that the team has no plans to trade Roethlisberger. "Contrary to erroneous reports, the Pittsburgh Steelers have not explored trading Ben Roethlisberger and have no plans to do so," Rooney said. Through nine games, Roethlisberger is averaging 281.6 passing yards, which places him seventh in the NFL, to go along with a 13:10 TD:INT ratio.
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
Roethlisberger has played all 16 regular season games just once in his eight-year career, which is primarily the result of a remarkably strong commitment by the Pittsburgh front office to under-invest in its offensive line. As Roethlisberger stumbled around on a bad ankle, and the Steelers watched their playoff run end at the hands of Tim Tebow, the team evidently recognized that keeping Roethlisberger healthy for once would perhaps be a useful outcome. To that end, the Steelers drafted guard David DeCastro and tackle Mike Adams with their first two picks, respectively, at last giving the team a talented offensive line nucleus alongside tackle Marcus Gilbert and center Maurkice Pouncey. Moreover, new offensive coordinator Todd Haley calls a pass-heavy game when he trusts his quarterback, and targets like Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Heath Miller, Emmanuel Sanders and Chris Rainey should be sufficient for Roethlisberger to pull off a strong year. A safer pocket for Roethlisberger is far from guaranteed, though, because those rookies on the offensive line might not yield immediate returns, and in any event, he tends to scramble around to buy extra time, often trading big plays for some extra sacks.
Roethlisberger has averaged about 278.8 yards passing per game the last two years, a figure that would translate to roughly 4,460 yards over 16 games. In that same span he’s averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game with a touchdown percentage right around 4.8. Multiply those numbers and you get about 25 passing touchdowns per year. Roethlisberger posted those numbers despite dealing with a badly beat up offensive line in 2010, with right tackle Willie Colon (Achilles) missing the entire season while Max Starks, the left tackle, missed nine games with neck and ankle injuries. With those two back in the lineup and emerging star Mike Wallace at receiver, Roethlisberger has a solid supporting cast to maintain his recent passing production. And while he’s no Vick or Rodgers, Roethlisberger does a decent job of boosting his fantasy value by running the ball. He’s a reliable source of 100-to-200 yards and two touchdowns on the ground each year.
Roethlisberger was great last year after lagging for most of his career for fantasy purposes. Of course, he’s now out at least four weeks due to a suspension. How he plays when he returns is a major question mark. Also factoring against Roethlisberger is a depleted receiving corps that lost Santonio Holmes, the team’s leading wideout in ‘09. If the Steelers are successful in Roethlisberger’s absence, it will be due to a defensive, running-oriented focus that will be a drag on his production throughout 2010.
He had a bad year last year on the stat sheet, but got another Super Bowl ring. Roethlisberger owners received no fantasy rings unless they had a heck of a backup that was able to replace him most Sundays. But we defer to the career YPA number (7.9). Also the starting receivers are good. Alas, the team wants to run and play defense and might actually be able to do the former this year. Even the YPA was below average last year, just 7.0, and that doesn’t factor in all those sacks – 46 (most of which killed Steelers drives). Big Ben also uncharacteristically struggled on first down – 7.7 YPA (about average and well off Matt Ryan’s league-leading pace of 9.64). On the more positive side, the Steelers do aggressively throw the ball downfield. A full 28 percent of Roethlisberger’s total attempts were 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage, second highest to JaMarcus Russell. However, his 60 QB rating on those tosses (nine picks) was better than only Kyle Orton’s and Marc Bulger’s among 2008 qualifiers. Roethlisberger also lagged in scoring efficiency, converting a TD every 4.7 of his red-zone passing attempts (13th best). And the attempts were below average (17th overall). The Steelers did not address their offensive line weakness in the offseason to our satisfaction. Tackles Max Starks and Willie Colon return, but are mediocre. So does C Justin Hartwig, who led the league in sacks allowed at the position (6.5). They did take Wisconsin Guard Kraig Urbik 79th overall. Also we must note that Nate Washington has departed to the Titans, leaving Limas Sweed and rookie Mike Wallace (Ole Miss) to compete for the third WR job, always a source of big plays in the Steelers downfield passing game. Sweed gives the Steelers the size a QB craves.
His 32 TDs were the result of incredible red zone proficiency due to the surprising inability of the Steelers to run the ball anywhere near the goal line. But the Steelers addressed that issue by drafting Rashard Mendenhall, who is built for goalline duty. Even if the Steelers choose to rely on the running game more (and they really did try to run it there with Willie Parker last year, but Parker just was not capable), Big Ben can't keep up his 2007 goal-line conversion rate. For example, he was 20th in attempts inside the five, but tied for 10th in TDs there. You also need more yardage out of a QB you'd expect to repeat a 30-plus TD performance. Roethlisberger's total was just 14th in the league. He remains incredibly efficient with his 7.8 YPA, so his floor should be around the mid-20s in scoring strikes no matter how high the Steelers running game rebounds. The defense was really good last year – second fewest points allowed – so you can’t worry too much about that alone cutting Roethlisberger's TDs, though it will continue to suppress his yards. We beat the market last year on Roethlisberger, ranking him 11th overall at the position. Cashing in that kind of 2007 return was sweet for those who listened and drafted him at that spot. There couldn't have been many leagues outside of Pittsburgh where he went higher than that. But this year, you're going to have to pass if people are drafting last year's numbers (which everyone does). The Steelers just don't throw enough to bank on another 30-TD season.
It was a lost year for Roethlisberger after the motorcycle crash and the additional concussion he received in Week 7 at Atlanta. When he went down in Atlanta, he had thrown five TD passes with no picks in his prior six quarters. Instead of getting a needed rest (according to the established, neurological opinion), Big Ben proceeded to throw seven more picks the next two weeks. Maybe this is silly cherry picking, but it’s reasonable to throw out the first five weeks on the assumption he just wasn’t physically and mentally ready to play. And then you must throw out the two weeks after the Falcons concussion. In those five games we’re tossing due to medical reasons (real or perceived), Roethlisberger threw 14 picks (just two TDs). Look at his season without that and it’s not bad by any measure and serviceable by fantasy standards (a 23-TD pass pace). New offensive coordinator Bruce Arians has had some success as coordinator with the Browns (when they gave Pittsburgh a scare in a wild shootout in the 2002 playoffs) and helped develop Peyton Manning as his QB coach. And he was in charge of the receivers the past few years in Pittsburgh. Expect Arians to open up the offense and for new coach Mike Tomlin, a defensive specialist, to be hands-off unless the Steelers start losing. Hines Ward isn’t getting better, for sure. But there’s upside with second-year pro Santonio Holmes. Willie Parker is explosive on screens and provides a running threat that defenses will account for on almost every snap. Heath Miller can control the hash-area of the field at tight end. The Steelers pass defense was mediocre last year, and no help for the secondary came in the draft. So the Steelers might be forced to play an aggressive brand of passing football even if that’s not Tomlin’s first choice. While Roethlisberger seems completely healthy at press time, you cannot totally discount the risk that he’ll never be the same player he was before the accident and that he’ll always be prone to concussions as a result. If he’s your first QB, you better pick another one very quickly.
Pittsburgh was last in pass percentage, first-down pass percentage and red-zone pass percentage. Since the Steelers won the Super Bowl, they’re unlikely to change a thing unless their season turns sour and/or their defense collapses. Again, the Smashmouth proponents will say that Roethlisberger’s passing numbers are so good because the opposing defense is forced to play run. But Pittsburgh could not sustain drives all season because it called on Roethlisberger to climb out of too many third-and-longs due to a decidedly mediocre running game (12th overall in yards per carry). Roethlisberger led the NFL with a 10.26 YPA on first-down passes. He was third in converting red-zone passes into TDs. He only had 31 late/close passes, but an 87 QB rating there. His arm strength is demonstrably excellent, given his 110 QB rating on 70 attempts of 11-20 yards. When trailing, Roethlisberger had a 115 rating with eight TDs on just 81 attempts. Despite the relative lack of opportunity, Roethlisberger led the Steelers to fourth place with 30 big passing plays (plus-25 yards). His accuracy is slightly below average, 15.7 percent poor throws. The wide receiver corps takes a hit with the loss of Antwaan Randle El, but TE Heath Miller will be expected to grab a more prominent role in the passing game. Cedrick Wilson is a decent deep threat but a shaky starter opposite of rock-solid All-Pro Hines Ward. Rookie Santonio Holmes will need to have a quick impact, which has been the pattern with all recent Steelers’ No. 1 picks. Make sure there are no lingering effects of his June motorcycle accident before turning to Roethlisberger on draft day.
Well, we said Kurt Warner was the active career leader in YPA, but we had to qualify it by saying “players with 20-plus games,” and here’s why: In his rookie season, Roethlisberger averaged a whopping 8.9 yards per attempt over 14 games. Now there’s no doubt that Roethlisberger is a major talent – he’s big, strong-armed and surprisingly fleet of foot. But he accumulated his tremendous per-pass productivity on a team that ran the ball more than any other in the last 20 years. In fact, 64 percent of the Steelers’ plays came on the ground, so Roethlisberger’s terrific passing stats were complied in a mere 295 attempts. If we prorate that over a full season, it still comes out to just 337 passing attempts. So, first, we’re looking at about a 10-game sample size for most quarterbacks, and second, teams that played the Steelers were undoubtedly gearing up to stop the run and taking more chances against Big Ben. Finally, Roethlisberger threw 11 picks, certainly not a lot for your typical passer, but given his low number of attempts, that puts his interception percentage at 3.72, and that’s Plummer/Collins territory. This came home to roost against better defenses in the playoffs when Roethlisberger threw two picks against the Jets and three against the Patriots. That said, Roethlisberger’s rookie season was a resounding success (14-0 in the regular season speaks for itself), and you can’t completely explain away that level of passing efficiency. The Steelers will still want to run the ball a ton – count on that – but there’s almost no way they’ll repeat their freakishly high run/pass ratio again in 2005. But unless Pittsburgh’s defense and running game take a giant step down, expect Roethlisberger’s counting totals to be similar to last year’s, just with a little less efficiency and a few more attempts.
Big Ben always has the playbook close by and spends most of his days in the film room like the player he's most compared to, Chad Pennington. But after playing at a small-time college (Miami of Ohio), he'll also need some extensive bench time to maximize his chance for a solid NFL debut.