35-Year-Old Quarterback – Atlanta Falcons
2016 Fantasy Football Outlook
Schaub is expected to hold the clipboard behind starter Matt Ryan this season. He returns to a familiar place, as many people forget that his career began in Atlanta. The 12-year veteran is a servicea...
Matt Schaub Contract Information:
Signs with Falcons in March of 2016.
Schaub completed eight of 12 passes for 78 yards in Thursday's preseason game against the Browns.
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|Passing||Pass Distance||Big Pass Games||Rushing||Fumbles|
|2016 Proj||35||ATL||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Matt Schaub|
Age is determined on September 1st of each season.
|Fantasy Points Per Game||Passing Stats||Red Zone Passes||Red Zone Runs|
|2016 Proj||35||ATL||Subscribe now to see our 2016 projections for Matt Schaub|
Age is determined on September 1st of each season.
|Snap Count||Passing||Pass Distance||Rushing||Fumbles||Red Zone Passes||Red Zone Runs|
A blank stat line is used above whenever a player was not on the field for any plays in the game that week.
Matt Schaub: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
Schaub fell apart for the Texans in 2013, and he then struggled during the 2014 preseason, eventually losing a competition with Derek Carr for the Raiders' starting quarterback job. While it appears he's nearing the end of the line, Schaub received a one-year, $2 million contract from the Ravens that includes a $1 million signing bonus. Said contract makes him the favorite to serve as Joe Flacco's top backup, but Flacco has yet to miss a game through seven seasons.
Schaub had a great deal of success in the four-year span from 2009 to 2012, but the wheels completely fell off in 2013. It's not a good look when you throw for 10 touchdowns and 14 interceptions despite having wideouts like Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins at your disposal, but the Raiders were desperate for a quarterback upgrade and are giving Schaub a chance to redeem himself in 2014. While Schaub might take care of the ball better in 2014, he doesn't seem likely to produce on an efficient basis. His own questionable talent is compounded by a sketchy offensive line, a below average running back rotation and an average-at-best receivig corps, so the touchdown total will likely be modest.
With Arian Foster in the backfield, Owen Daniels patrolling the middle and Andre Johnson and rookie DeAndre Hopkins split out wide, the Texans own one of the league's premier supporting casts. Schaub has benefited from it, though he's typically acted as a game-manager in Houston's run-first offense. That's the primary problem with drafting him late, even as a backup; despite all of his weapons, Schaub probably won't throw the ball enough – especially in the red zone – to provide the high ceiling you'd like in a late-round selection. In fact, Schaub had only 58 red-zone attempts all season (21st) despite being fifth in total snaps (1109). Another issue with Schaub is his lack of week-to-week consistency due to the nature of Houston's offense. When the Texans are losing, and Schaub airs the ball out more than normal, he has elite potential (see his 527-yard, five-touchdown performance against the Jaguars last year). However, there will be other weeks when he throws the ball only 30 times, capping his potential production. He had eight games with fewer than 250 yards in 2012, for example. And Schaub won't give you anything as a runner; he has exactly zero yards rushing over the past two seasons.
The emergence of Arian Foster and Ben Tate at running back – as well as a vastly improved defense – has led the Texans to run the ball as often as possible, and as a result Schaub attempted just 277 passes in the nine full games he played in 2011, which projects to just 492 over a full season. Considering Schaub averaged 579 pass attempts in 2009 and 2010, that’s a pretty big decrease in his workload. Then you have to consider his durability. Schaub played all 32 games from 2009 to 2010, but he missed five games in each of the two years prior to that. He also suffered a season-ending Lisfranc fracture in his foot during Week 10 last year, which is a slight concern even as this year approaches. On an efficiency basis, though, Schaub was better than ever in 2011, averaging a career-high 8.5 yards per pass while posting a career-high touchdown rate. Should the defense or running game regress there’s upside here, but if things go to form, Schaub could very well be in the bottom half of the league in per-game volume.
After consecutive healthy seasons it looks like Schaub may have finally shaken the “injury prone” label, knock on wood. He posted very nice numbers in his last three years in Houston, averaging about 8.0 yards per attempt in an offense that gives him about 35 pass attempts per game. With Andre Johnson and a healthy Owen Daniels to throw to, he should be expected to maintain that level of productivity heading into next year. It also doesn’t hurt that Arian Foster has the look of an elite NFL runner, so defenses have little choice but to bite hard on play-action in 2011. The only thing that keeps Schaub from moving higher in fantasy rankings is his general lack of upside. He offers basically nothing as a runner, and he has averaged just about 1.58 passing touchdowns per game in his last three seasons. That equates to a more than respectable average of roughly 25 passing touchdowns per year, but he’ll need to do better than that if he’s going to make a run at the likes of Rivers, Romo and Brady.
Schaub’s 2009 was excellent — a league-leading 4,770 passing yards and 29 TDs. His 8.18 YPA again was sparkling and not tremendously out of line relative to his 7.61 career mark heading into 2009. If your league counts picks, as it should, Schaub gets dinged a little. He also is no threat to run. He lost Owen Daniels to an ACL injury just as he was emerging as a security blanket for Schaub when teams ganged up on Andre Johnson, who combines savage size with ethereal speed and athleticism. Daniels may not be back in top form and is likely to be in recovery mode for much of the first half of the season. The selection of Ben Tate in the second round makes it clear the Texans would like to run the ball more in 2010. But the Texans defense is average at best. The division is tough. Houston will have to scramble to win most weeks and certainly does not seem good enough to coast in more than a handful of games. Plus Gary Kubiak is back and provides a very QB-friendly system. Last year was the best you can expect from Schaub.
One of the strangest players we’ve studied and maybe the biggest YPA outlier ever. His career YPA is a sparkling 7.61, which should equate to 25 TDs every 500 passes (the average amount for a full season). But Schaub has just 30 TDs in 830 career attempts (our YPA formula predicts he should have 41). Remember, we’re already adjusting for playing time/injury by only looking at TD/Attempt. And he has weapons. Andre Johnson is an NFL superman who led the league in catches and receiving yards. Crafty Kevin Walter is his perfect complement. Andre Davis is a speedy third WR (17.3 YPC the past two years). RB Steve Slaton proved to be Thurman Thomas-like as a receiving threat (50 catches). TE Owen Daniels lacks hybrid athleticism but is just quick enough to find the seams (70 catches, just two TDs). Slaton is not built for wear at 5-9, 203, and thus can’t lead a ball-control attack. And the Texans surprised many observers by not pairing him with a power back via free agency or the draft. Thus, the Texans are likely to have run-pass splits that favor the QB. Fantasy owners who forgo the position until the middle rounds are going to be able to steal Schaub and have a reasonable chance at 25 TDs. Try your best to be that owner. And also try very hard to pair Schaub with another QB with upside just in case he proves again that YPA in his case is not a key indicator for fantasy production.
Schaub's 7.75 YPA makes him a big sleeper, as does Andre Johnson – assuming Johnson can stay healthy and dominate the entire season. Since our sample size for all attempts is so much bigger than the TDs, which can be fluky, expect the latter to follow the former. If Schaub posts another 7.5-ish YPA and stays healthy (the latter is probably a bigger "if" than the former), he is a solid 25-TD QB sleeper. We like the 8.0 YPA on first downs and the 92.4 QB rating on our FAS throws, though the percentage relative to overall attempts – just 19 percent – is too low and perhaps indicative of passive play calling. Many owners will see Sage Rosenfels as a big threat given his TD proficiency relative to Schaub. But Rosenfels' fundamentals are worse: his YPA was almost a yard less, his FAS poor (65.7 QB rating), his first-down passing profi- ciency sub-standard (6.28 YPA). Rosenfels does have upside should Schaub get hurt, however, given his gunslinger mentality (15 TDs, 12 picks). Houston's new offensive coordinator is Kyle Shanahan (son of Mike and promoted from QB coach). But expect no changes as head coach Gary Kubiak remains a disciple of Kyle's dad.
Again, we have to throw out the stats and just try to project the player. There’s not enough of a sample size to draw a definitive conclusion on Schaub. But what’s there is very encouraging. The Texans last year played around David Carr, so we don’t really know how Texans coach Gary Kubiak will call a game with a QB in whom he believes. Note that last year, the Texans ran the ball 55 percent in the first half, and they didn’t even like their backs, shuffling them around before casting them off in favor of Ahman Green, a favorite of offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. Andre Johnson is a dynamic wide receiver, but the Texans tried to assemble an offense on the cheap with Carr and seem inclined to do the same thing with Schaub. Other than Johnson, this team’s weapons and offensive line are nondescript.
Highly-touted backup quarterback to Michael Vick, who has shown flashes of being able to make a fantasy splash if called upon.
Schaub won't see much playing unless franchise quarterback Michael Vick is injured for a prolonged period of time. That would be the only scenario where he would offer any fantasy value. That being said, he is capable of starting in case of emergency and has displayed keen skills as a pocket passer.
Schaub will be groomed by the team as a potential backup to Michael Vick, Atlanta's' exciting, but high injury-risk QB.