27-Year-Old Quarterback – Detroit Lions
2014 Fantasy Football Outlook
Despite throwing to one of the league's thinnest receiver rotations and finishing the year with a miserable four-game stretch in which he threw for just two touchdowns and five interceptions, Stafford...
Matthew Stafford Contract Information:
In July of 2013, Stafford agreed to a three-year contract extension with the Lions. Stafford had two years worth $23.5 million remaining on his previous contract, with his extension resulting in $53 million in new money. Stafford's deal now runs through the 2017 season and includes $43 million in guarantees.
Lions head coach Jim Caldwell wants Stafford to throw the ball less frequently in 2015, the Detroit Free Press reports. "When I tell you that we're not going to throw the ball any more than we threw it (last year), that's a fact," Caldwell said. "We're probably not going to throw it (more). If we do throw it more, that means we're behind, we're struggling, we're not winning, we're not a very good football team, plain and simple."
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|Passing||Pass Distance||Big Pass Games||Rushing||Fumbles|
|2014 Proj||26||DET||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Matthew Stafford|
Age is determined on September 1st of each season.
|Fantasy Points Per Game||Passing Stats||Red Zone Passes||Red Zone Runs|
|2014 Proj||26||DET||Subscribe now to see our 2014 projections for Matthew Stafford|
Age is determined on September 1st of each season.
|Snap Count||Passing||Pass Distance||Rushing||Fumbles||Red Zone Passes||Red Zone Runs|
A blank stat line is used above whenever a player was not on the field for any plays in the game that week.
Matthew Stafford: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
Coming off of a season in which he attempted 727 passes – the most in NFL history – Stafford has plenty of room to become more efficient. Stafford's 59.8-percent completion rate matched his career mark, but that's not a good thing in the quarterback’s fourth season in the league. And his 6.8 YPA ranked him 21st among the 29 QBs with 300 passing attempts. While Stafford passed for nearly 5,000 yards, he threw for only 20 touchdowns – fewer than half of what he mustered in 2011 – and 17 picks. If he can post increases in completion percentage and YPA – something that's likely with the weapons in Detroit, including free agent running back Reggie Bush – Stafford has top-quarterback potential. And his record-setting passing volume was no anomaly – he attempted the fifth-most attempts in league history in 2011. Stafford is also the perfect example of why our perception of "injury proneness" is flawed. After playing in only 13 of the Lions’ 32 games in 2009 and 2010, Stafford hasn't missed a game over the past two seasons. It's more likely Stafford was never really any more susceptible to injuries than anyone else, but simply got unlucky.
Stafford might have the lowest floor of the QBs in this range due to durability concerns. Even in last year’s 16-game showing, he suffered a fractured finger on his right hand and played through injuries to his ankle and knee. It’s encouraging that he was still able to perform at a high level, but coming off a two-year span in which he missed 19 games, it would have been more reassuring had Stafford steered clear of trouble entirely. Still, even if he’s a relative risk, his upside is too high for him to be listed any lower. Stafford is a good bet to lead the league in passing attempts, while playing in an offense that might have the NFL’s best receiver, as well as four or five other productive targets. He averaged 7.6 yards per pass while throwing the ball 663 times in 2011, resulting in 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns against just 16 interceptions. As long as he (and Calvin Johnson) stay healthy, Stafford is a virtual lock to put up big numbers.
Stafford would probably be ranked higher if he weren’t such a health risk. He has dealt with injuries to his right knee and both shoulders in his two-year career, with two throwing-shoulder injuries limiting him to just three appearances last season. But in the games Stafford did play, he put up very nice fantasy numbers. He totaled 452 yards, six passing touchdowns, one interception and a rushing touchdown against Washington and the Jets. If he could just stay on the field, the strong-armed Stafford would be in a great position to build on those two games, as he has a good supporting cast at the skill positions—Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best at running back, Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler at tight end and Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young at wideout.
It was a predictably tough rookie year for Stafford after the Lions threw him to the wolves. He got banged up (knee, shoulder) but should be ready for training camp. Take out one big game against the Browns and Stafford threw eight TDs with 18 picks. There is Calvin Johnson, though. He’s a freakishly athletic wide receiver who could almost single-handedly carry Stafford to about 20 TDs. Given the indoor environment and the Lions poor defense, you have a QB situation worth considering. In leagues that do not count picks, Stafford can be a late-round bargain and someone who can really help a savvy owner who plays matchups and sticks to Lions home games.
Even though the Lions took Stafford with the No. 1 overall pick in April, Daunte Culpepper will be a caretaker behind center. And he should be one for the whole year because if Stafford goes out there with this team, he will likely get beat up and then could be shell-shocked for years. Throwing Culpepper to the wolves makes the most sense. New head coach Jim Schwartz, the former defensive coordinator of the Titans, is likely to rely on offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to call the plays. Linehan has been QB friendly in the past – especially for the Vikings (three years beginning in 2002). By now most people realize Calvin Johnson is the LeBron James of the NFL – same type of freakish manchild. But the Lions also have some decent complementary weapons – Ronald Curry and Bryant Johnson both have decent speed for their size, tight-end Brandon Pettigrew was the team’s first-round pick and tailback Kevin Smith is also a good receiver. Moreover, Linehan likes to call pass plays in the red zone and near the goal-line, so that alone should provide a few extra touchdowns for Lions signal-callers. Of course, if the Lions struggle – which they likely will – there’s no telling when Stafford will replace Culpepper, either during particular games, or for good. And if that happens, it’s unrealistic to expect Stafford to be Matt Ryan. The consensus is that Stafford is a supremely talented thrower (though there was too much wobble in his passes in the games we reviewed) not remotely prepared to step in and start early. Look at the rookie year of the player to whom he’s most compared for valuation guidance. Jay Cutler played five games as a rookie and played well, but was available on the waiver wire in non-keeper formats as Stafford will be in the unlikely event he starts even that meager number of contests after Thanksgiving.