37-Year-Old Quarterback – Denver Broncos
2013 Fantasy Football Outlook
After missing a year due to multiple neck surgeries, Manning not only returned to form in 2012 – he actually performed at a level not seen since his prime. Manning's 8.0 YPA was the third best mark of...
Peyton Manning Contract Information:
Agreed to a five-year, $96 million deal with Denver in March of 2012. Only the $18 million for 2012 is guaranteed.
Manning (ankle) is probable for Thursday's game against the Chargers.
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|Passing||Pass Distance||Big Pass Games||Rushing||Fumbles|
|2013 Proj||37||DEN||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Peyton Manning|
Age is determined on September 1st of each season.
|Fantasy Points Per Game||Passing Stats||Red Zone Passes||Red Zone Runs|
|2013 Proj||37||DEN||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Peyton Manning|
Age is determined on September 1st of each season.
|Snap Count||Passing||Pass Distance||Rushing||Fumbles||Red Zone Passes||Red Zone Runs|
A blank stat line is used above whenever a player was not on the field for any plays in the game that week.
Peyton Manning: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
Exclusive Fantasy Analysis (FREE PREVIEW)Manning has been sitting early in the week for a while now in order to rest his bum ankle, but will not be afforded that luxury this week with a short turnaround on tap. He's been able to put up huge numbers despite the ailment, and it's hard to imagine that changing against a Chargers defense that ranks in the bottom seven in the league against fantasy quarterbacks.
Exclusive Fantasy Analysis (FREE PREVIEW)Manning's historically great season rolled along Sunday, as he set the Broncos' single-game record for 39 completions and extended his single-season record with 45 passing touchdowns, putting him on pace to break Tom Brady's record of 50. Manning connected with eight different receivers on the day, throwing touchdowns to Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas. The win helped the Broncos clinch a playoff spot, although they still have work to do to grab home field advantage, so he'll still be throwing as normal in Week 15 against the Chargers.
Exclusive Fantasy Analysis (FREE PREVIEW)Manning was a bit off for much of the first half, but really turned it on in the second. He connected with eight different receivers on the day, with his most popular target being Eric Decker, who caught eight passes on 12 targets for 174 yards and four touchdowns. Manning now has 41 touchdown passes on the season, four more than he had all of last season, which was a Broncos record at the time. Up next is a Week 14 matchup, against a solid Titans defense that held Andrew Luck to just 200 passing yards Sunday.
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
A "minimally invasive" neck surgery on May 23, 2011, seemed harmless enough at the time – he would be out for just 6-to-8 weeks, Colts owner Jim Irsay said. He’ll be ready for training camp, no problem. But Manning never recovered. First he was ruled out for the preseason, then his Week 1 status came into doubt, and finally, on Sept. 8 Manning underwent another surgery – a cervical fusion that ultimately knocked him out for the whole year. While there’s no way to tell from the outside whether he’s fully recovered yet, the Broncos were willing to gamble $18 million in guaranteed money on that proposition as part of a five-year, $96 million deal in March. A healthy Manning’s skills speak for themselves, and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are a promising wideout duo, but the enduring and severe nature of Manning’s ailment makes him a major risk. His pass attempt volume is also difficult to anticipate. The John Fox regime called a slightly higher-than-average 35.5 passes per game in the four weeks it started a real quarterback (Kyle Orton), but it’s possible Manning will be eased back into a heavy workload gradually.
Like Drew Brees, Manning’s actual play took a step back last year, the elite fantasy numbers notwithstanding. Manning’s yards per-pass average fell from 7.9 in 2009 to 6.9 last year, so his career high of 679 pass attempts – 108 more than he had in 2009 – resulted in only 200 more yards, and the same number of touchdowns (33). You have to like his chances of improving his efficiency in 2011, however, because Indianapolis finally focused on fixing up its offensive line this offseason. That means a better running game to keep defenses honest as well as more time for Manning to stand in the pocket. First-round pick Anthony Castonzo has a good chance to be the team’s best tackle since losing Tarik Glenn, and second-round Villanova product Ben Ijalana should give a good boost at guard. And while he won’t be as up to speed in the team’s system, fourth-round running back pick Delone Carter might be a better pure runner than either Joseph Addai or Donald Brown. It also can’t hurt that Dallas Clark will be back in action after missing 10 games last year or that Austin Collie, who missed seven games, is healthy for training camp. Manning himself underwent surgery to repair a bulging disc in his neck in May, but is expected to be healthy in time to participate in some of training camp.
Manning remains a sound investment and likely to outperform the majority of the league at the quarterback position. The only risk with him lies in where you have to draft him. With many other QBs emerging, we can see Manning being a value pick as the fourth or fifth QB taken in many leagues. You’re guaranteed with Manning 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, with an upside of 40 TDs and closer to 5,000 passing yards. This receiving corps is as good as he’s ever had. Reggie Wayne is still near the peak of his career, and Pierre Garcon is a home-run hitter who has also proven to be reliable. Plus Dallas Clark capably mans that vital hash area of the field. You can see how alluring Manning’s upside is if the Colts defense cooperates and puts more pressure on Manning to regularly hit the 30s in points scored. Any regression relative to 2009 is likely to be very mild if it happens at all.
Jim Caldwell is the new head coach and had served as Manning’s QB coach previously, so no changes, of course, in the Colts offense. The only person on the planet insane enough to do that would be Josh McDaniels, who probably would have traded Peyton like he did Cutler. Manning has to be the most unselfish player ever, considering his greatness coupled with his play-calling authority. Manning maddeningly keeps calling running plays near pay dirt even with non-descript backs. He’d throw 40 TDs easily if he called his number more inside the opposing 10. Last year, he gave himself 33 attempts (including two rushes), which generated 17 TDs. The backs had their number called 31 times and had 10 TDs. Those splits should be 70/30 in favor of throwing because Peyton is the rare QB where a run in the red zone is a win for the defense. If he did that, Manning would have generated about 35 TDs, which makes him worthy of the high pick. But he’s in the high 20s now and fell 1,000 yards off the pace of the league-leading passer. That’s a nice piece to the puzzle, but you can approximate that with a quarterback drafted four or five rounds later if you just give yourself the chance. In reality, though, he’s just a wonder, and it’s fun to own a player so spectacularly good. And, yes, you can make the case that last year was the floor for Manning as he really had to drag his offense behind him by their collective chinstrap. Without Manning, the Colts offense would be far below average, and the team would have been lucky to win six games. Donald Brown was brought in, but that only means more running as he’ll complement Joseph Addai, who took a big step back in ‘08. Marvin Harrison was cut, but it would not surprise us to see him back this summer as the Colts did not seriously fill his spot in the draft. Anthony Gonzalez is a better fit in the slot in the Colts three-WR packages than he is outside the numbers.
Still the perfect QB. He's always going to get you 30 TDs no matter what happens to his supporting cast. Last year, Marvin Harrison missed almost the entire season, and it was no big deal. He makes the receivers into stars, not vice versa. The loss of Harrison hurt him on some of those intermediate throws, as teams were able to roll safeties over to Reggie Wayne's side. Rookie Anthony Gonzalez showed flashes replacing Harrison, especially late, but couldn't stay healthy himself. And when Gonzalez was sidelined, Manning literally had waiver-wire caliber talent with which to work. Dallas Clark stepped up and surprised with a big year allowing Manning to attack the hash area of the field. But the Colts would be better with Harrison back and Gonzalez providing support on third-down sets. We won't know if Harrison can stay healthy until well into training camp. One thing that hurts Manning is the strength of the Colts defense and its mastery of the Cover 2 scheme to such an extent that it gives up very few big passing plays – a league-low 20 passes of 20-plus yards last year and just one TD. So the Colts can win now with scores in the 20s and thus can be more conservative in their play calling, especially late and with the lead.
The gold standard at the position and now an inner-circle Hall of Famer after capturing the elusive championship. While we advocate waiting on quarterbacks, Manning’s awfully tough to pass up once the Top-10 running backs and sure-thing receivers are off the board. He’ll always have that 2004-level of upside. And his floor is 30 TD passes. There is very little injury risk, given he’s impossible to sack (14 last year). Blitzing Manning is suicidal, as he threw for 12 TDs, no picks and had a 127.4 passer rating in 119 attempts when teams did it to him in ‘06. And most incredibly, he was sacked less frequently (percentage of attempts) when blitzed (three times) than when he wasn’t. Manning is also atop our functional arm strength rankings, with a 120 QB rating on passes traveling 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage. He threw these intermediate passes about 23 percent of the time, well over the average rate of 19 percent. Given this downfield efficiency, it’s unsurprising that 65.7 percent of his passing yards were in the air (the mean is about 55 percent). Manning’s reliance on deeper passes makes his above average mark of 14 percent poor passes even more impressive. Yes, the receivers are good. But Manning makes the receivers, not vice versa. Ideally for Manning owners, the Colts pass defense becomes more vulnerable after the turnover in the secondary. But that’s gravy. The Colts are very aggressive throwing the ball in the first half (58 percent of plays). And while we’d like to see Manning throw every time the Colts are inside the 10 rather than on just 44 percent of those plays, you can’t argue with the results – 18 TD passes on those 39 attempts. Of course, one of the reasons he doesn’t throw on a higher percent of inside-the-10 plays is that he’s so efficient in converting them into scores.
Manning regressed to the mean last year, which seems so obvious now but didn’t at the time. There’s a chance he can pile up those kinds of numbers again, especially with the Colts running game in flux after the departure of Edgerrin James. Since he calls all the plays, Manning only has himself to blame for being too conservative. The Colts were 18th in overall pass percentage. They won so easily and so often that this isn’t surprising. But more concerning is the first-down numbers, where Indy ranked 21st in pass percentage despite Manning’s second-best 10.2 YPA on those throws. The Colts were also very conservative inside the 20, just 20th in red-zone pass percentage (43 percent). In his record-setting 2004, Manning called his own number on 53 percent of red-zone plays (10th overall). But there’s no denying the decrease of efficiency, with just 18 TDs in 69 attempts last year (11th most efficient) vs. 31 scores in 82 attempts in ’04 (most efficient). With James gone, don’t expect Indy to run the ball 103 times again in the red zone, second most attempts in the NFL. But the difference might not be striking, as Manning has not altered his play calling significantly in the past even when James has been sidelined. On 126 passes thrown 11-to-20 yards, Manning had an 85 QB rating, down from 123.3 the prior year. In ’04, his YPA was 9.2, and it’s 7.7 for his career. So, 40 TD passes is the ceiling and 27 the floor. Last year, Manning had a ridiculously low 25 attempts in the fourth quarter when leading or trailing by seven or less points and his QB rating on those throws was 98.7.Despite the question marks, there's little debate that he's still the top fantasy choice at his position.
Everyone’s well aware of Manning’s record-breaking 49 touchdowns last season, but many probably don’t realize Manning posted his 2004 numbers while attempting fewer passes than in any year of his career. As a result, he had an eye-popping 9.17 yards per passing attempt, second-best all time among passers with 450 attempts or more in a season. Considering he threw just 10 interceptions and took just 13 sacks, Manning’s 2004 is not only the most prolific touchdown-passing season ever, it’s the most efficient yardage one, as well. That’s like breaking Barry Bonds’ home run record while hitting .400. Nonetheless, for the first time since his rookie year, Manning heads into a season as a fantasy question mark. While in years past, you could count on an automatic 28-30 touchdowns, this season you have to wonder whether he’ll earn his value as an early first-round pick by throwing 35-plus. The bar has been raised, and now Manning will need to out-produce the Trent Greens and Tom Bradys by a lot. The continued emergence of wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley alongside old standby Marvin Harrison contributed to Manning’s monster season, and all three, along with pass-catching tight end Dallas Clark, are in the fold for 2005. Finally, don’t forget about a defense that gave up 371 yards (fourth most) and 22 points (tied for 14th most) per game, forcing Manning to look downfield early and often. While the Colts draft was heavily slanted toward defense – the Colts took cornerbacks in the first two rounds – the unit still projects as mediocre at best.
Pick Manning, and you'll never need to give the quarterback position a second thought. Although Manning was a streaky performer last year, tossing a whopping 18 TD passes in just four games (or a mediocre 11 scores in his other 12 starts), Manning was just the opposite in 2002, failing to top three TDs in any game, but compiling nine multi-score games (versus only seven last year). In sum, last season’s streakiness aside, Manning is as consistent as it gets from the quarterback spot. Manning is also one of the NFL’s most accurate passers – only 12 percent of his throws were poor last year. But consistency and accuracy aren’t the only reasons to like Manning in 2004. In fact, there is some upside here, given that the Colts will be fielding a very strong receiving corps, by far the best of Manning’s career. With two quality receiving tight ends and a trio of dangerous receivers (including slot-man Brandon Stokley), Manning is impossible to defend vertically and horizontally, and last season’s playoff contests against Denver and Kansas City, (681 yards, 8 TDs) could be a taste of what’s to come. Moreover, the Colts don't have much cap room left for defense, so Manning is likely to be forced to put up points early and often.
While Manning probably won't be the first QB drafted in your league, there's a case to be made that perhaps he should be. For while he might not have the upside to finish No. 1 overall at the position, he's got virtually no downside as a fantasy candidate, and early picks on draft day are usually about floor more than they are about upside. It's very hard to imagine Manning not being in the top five when quarterback points are added up at the end of the year.