Philip Rivers and Regression Toward the Mean
Philip Rivers completed just 62.9 percent of his passes in 2011, totaling 27 touchdowns and only 7.95 yards-per-attempt - his worst marks in all three categories since 2007. He also got picked off a career-high 20 times.
While some might look at this as a red flag, I see it as value - at least if his current seventh-round average draft position is any indication. The quarterback with four straight seasons of 4,000 yards is being left in the cold. So why would I target a quarterback who is coming off of one of the worst seasons of his career and just lost his top receiver? Because his perceived worth is at its pit.
As fantasy owners, we seek value by "buying low" on players whose actual value exceeds their perceived worth. It's difficult to stock a team with players coming off of down years, but those are the guys whose production is likely to strongly "regress toward the mean."
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