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According to the Data: Using Scarcity to Find Value in 2013 Drafts

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News,, and NBC.

Using Scarcity to Find Value in 2013 Drafts

In some ways, I believe advanced fantasy football owners understand drafts better than NFL GMs. Yes, I said it. The primary reason is that pretty much every established fantasy owner has a keen sense of position scarcity; while NFL teams proclaim the value of continually (and blindly) selecting the highest-rated player, fantasy owners understand their board isn't the only factor in choosing the perfect team. In addition to sticking to their rankings and drafting for need (yes, need. . .gasp!), owners also weigh position depth - or scarcity - into their draft decisions.

There are a number of complex draft strategies that incorporate scarcity, most of them centered around how a player compares to a "typical" player at his position. The greater the difference and the fewer comparable players at the position, the greater the scarcity. And just like gold or any other tangible commodity, scarce things are valuable.

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