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According to the Data: VBD, Baseline Players and Draft Strategy

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News,, and NBC.

VBD, Baseline Players, and a Flexible Draft Strategy

There are all sorts of draft strategies, all of which are meant to help you compile the best overall fantasy football team. One strategy I've discussed a lot lately is Value Based Drafting - a method that involves setting a specific baseline for each position, then calculating how each player compares to that baseline.

Recently, Chris Liss sent me an e-mail with an article he wrote critiquing VBD. All of the problems he brings up are real, but the one that is most potentially damning to VBD, in my opinion, is that our choice of a baseline player is (basically) arbitrary:

It's easy to use RGIII as the baseline QB, but given his injury and playing style, most people probably have him projected for only 13-15 games. As such, if you were to draft him, you'd likely get 14 games of RGIII plus two ot

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