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According to the Data: Strength of Schedule - Part 2

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

Strength of Schedule Analysis, Part II

Don't even bother to look at strength of schedule stats for quarterbacks. Quick, actionable advice right off the bat. In last week's article on strength of schedule, I found there's absolutely no meaningful correlation between a defense's pass defense, in terms of yards allowed (or interceptions), from one year to the next. Here's the data:



In order for strength of schedule information to be meaningful, we need to be able to predict defensive performance. After all, does it really matter if a quarterback has a "difficult" schedule if we have no idea which defenses will be good and bad in the future? Spoiler alert: no, it doesn't.
However, I found that a team's rank in run defense is pretty consistent from year to year (a strength of correlation of 0.529). Take a look:


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