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Survivor: Week 6 Edition

Chris Liss

Chris Liss

Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.

Surviving Week 6

After an uneventful Sunday, the Falcons loss to the Jets on Monday night trimmed some pools nicely, and by nicely I mean if you didn't pick the Falcons, our No. 4 choice last week - though, to be honest, the margin between 1 and 4 wasn't that big.

Also, one disadvantage to picking this early in the week is you miss out on significant late-breaking developments like Calvin Johnson being scratched an hour before Sunday's game. I actually switched my pick to the Packers (I posted that switch in the comments of last week's article), so if you rely on this article it's worth checking back each week to see if anything's changed. I'll always post in the comments who I'd switch to if something like that happens again.

Let's take a look at this week's slate:

Team Opponent %Taken Vegas ML** Vegas Odds
49ERS Cardinals 27.90% 525 84.00
BRONCOS Jaguars 26.40% 5000 98.04
SEAHAWKS Titans 13.40% 750 88.24
CHIEFS Raiders 13.00% 360 78.26
BEARS Giants 8.50% 330 76.74
TEXANS Rams 3.90% 320 76.19
Bengals BILLS 3.50% 295 74.68
COWBOYS Redskins 1.90% 220 68.75
Home team in CAPS ** Average of the two moneylines

Without doing the math, I'm positive the Broncos - despite being 26-percent picked - are the top team, given their 98 percent chance to win. Let's assume you've used the Broncos, what then? In that case the Seahawks (at 13.4%) are the easy call with an 88 percent chance to win. After those two, what then?

It's a close call between the Niners, Chiefs, Texans and Bengals. Rather than doing all the precise math, I'm going to simplify this by saying I think the Texans are going to roll at home, and for that reason I give them an 80 percent chance to win. I also think the Niners number is too high against an Arizona team that has an equally good defense, so let's reduce that to 80 also. With those numbers, the Texans beat out both the Niners, Bengals and Chiefs. As such, they're my third choice.

My Picks

1. Denver Broncos

There would have to be 80-percent of your pool on them before you'd consider jumping ship to another team. The Jaguars might score some points with Chad Henne under center and Justin Blackmon back, but if they keep it within 20, it'll be a strong showing. I give the Broncos a 97 percent chance to win this game.

2. Seattle Seahawks

If you've used the Broncos, but have Seattle available, it's an easy call. The Seahawks are virtually unbeatable at home, and the Titans have neither the shutdown defense nor the explosive offense to push them. I give the Seahawks an 88 percent chance to win this game.

3. Houston Texans

I realize Matt Schaub's already set a new pick-six-in-consecutive-games record, and Houston didn't show up in San Francisco last week. But like last week when it was better to bet against the Jaguars than on the Falcons, this week it's better to bet against the Rams than on the 49ers - especially given the pick distribution. I give the Texans an 80 percent chance to win this game. (Unfortunately, I've used the Texans here already in Week 2).

4. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs aren't anywhere near as good as their perfect record, and the Raiders aren't nearly the doormat many thought after the preseason. That said, Kansas City is a conversative team that doesn't make a ton of mistakes and is playing at home. I give the Chiefs a 78 percent chance to win this game. (Note the 49ers trump them in win percentage, but are also more popular).

5. San Francisco 49ers

The Cardinals are dangerous as they have a strong defense and playmaking receivers, and the 49ers' offense has been limited this year given all the injuries to their wideouts. But this game is in San Francisco, and Carson Palmer is good for a couple big mistakes, especially with a lackluster running game and playing behind a poor offensive line. I give the 49ers an 80 percent chance to win this game.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

I don't like Andy Dalton going on the road, but I do trust the Bengals defense to handle quarterback Thaddeus Lewis. I give Cincy a 75-percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions

Chicago Bears - The defense has slipped, Jay Cutler is capable of disastrous mistakes, and as bad as the Giants have been, they're a volatile underdog with too much easy-to-see upside.

Dallas Cowboys - RGIII had his way with them last year, the Redskins are coming off a bye, and this is a rivalry game I'd typically avoid.