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East Coast Offense: Solving the Montee Ball Problem

Chris Liss

Chris Liss

Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.

The Montee Ball Problem is Solved

Do you want what's behind Door No. 1, Door No. 2 or Door No. 3? It seems obvious at first, but the obvious choice turns out to be wrong. The key is you need to Know More.

The traditional problem was presented as a choice of three doors, you pick one and then the host opens up an empty one and says - you can have $100 to keep the door you've chosen, or you can turn down the $100 and switch. Most people assume you should take the cash in hand because there's a 50/50 chance of the prize being behind either the door you've chosen or the one they're offering you in trade. But actually that's not true. There's a 2/3 chance it's behind the other door and only a 1/3 chance it's behind yours.

That's because the host Knows More than you, and he's never going to open the door with the prize behind it. He's always going to open the empty one. That means the 2/3 chance that it's one of the other two doors remains intact eve

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