It was another bad week, but I felt I had the right sides with the Saints, Packers, Cardinals and Raiders, and the ATS result turned on a couple bounces late. Unfortunately, I can't simply omit them from my increasingly dire overall record. It's also hard to spin going 0-5 on the games I liked best, so I won't.
Oddly, I feel pretty good about the Week 7 slate. Rarely after a bad run does one have confidence, but most of these picks came to me pretty quickly. My best are the Cardinals, Panthers and Colts. Coin flips are Bengals-Lions, Bills-Dolphins, 49ers-Titans and Ravens-Steelers.
Seahawks -6.5 at Cardinals
I'd have a hard time picking this game at minus-3 let alone 6.5. The Cardinals play good defense and can slug it out with the Seahawks at home. Back Arizona.
Cardinals 21 - 17
Patriots -4 at Jets
The Jets are so Jekyll and Hyde these days, but I have to think they'll play the familiar Pats tough at home. Back New York.
Patriots 23 - 20
Chargers -7.5 at Jaguars
The Jaguars actually played decent defense against the Broncos, and Chad Henne should be able to move the ball through the air with Justin Blackmon and likely Cecil Shorts back. Take the points.
Chargers 27 - 23
Texans +6.5 at Chiefs
It's a good time to buy Houston low and sell Kansas City high here. Take the Texans who win outright even if Tyler Yates - who won a playoff game against the Bengals two years ago - has to start.
Texans 24 - 23
Bengals +3 at Lions
I've gone against the Lions all year, and they've covered most weeks, but I'll keep fading them. They don't stop the run, and the Bengals will ugly this one up. Back Cincy.
Bengals 23 - 19
Bills +8 at Dolphins
Thaddeus Lewis more than held his own against a tough Bengals defense, and eight seems like too many points here. I have a Miami hunch, but it's unwise to play hunches when you've been struggling. Back the Bills.
Dolphins 27 - 20
Bears +1 at Redskins
The Bears offense has been better this year, in large part due to the emergence of more receiving options and better line play, but the defense has taken a significant step back. I expect the Redskins to handle them at home.
Redskins 30 - 21
Cowboys +3 at Eagles
I'm agnostic about this one as both teams should score plenty of points, and it'll likely come down to who gets the bounces. I suppose I'll take the FG as I see this as a 50/50 game.
Eagles 31 - 30
Rams +6 at Panthers
The Rams might have turned the corner after an awful start, but keep in mind the Texans ran the ball at will against them, and the game turned on some fluke plays. Back the Panthers who have a top defense.
Panthers 27 - 13
Buccaneers +7 at Falcons
I'd love to be contrarian and take Atlanta at home where they've had a great record over the last few years, but Tampa's defense is too good, and Atlanta's offense too hobbled for me to do that. Back the Bucs.
Buccaneers 17 - 16
49ers -4 at Titans
My first instinct was to take the Titans as a home dog because they've been decent defensively, and the Niners haven't impressed much of late except against the Texans which we now know means less than it seemed at the time. But I have a nagging 49ers hunch. I'll ignore it. Back the Titans.
49ers 19 - 16
Browns +10 at Packers
With all the injuries to the Packers receivers and facing a tough Browns defense, I'll hold my nose and back Brandon Weeden plus 10. Take Cleveland.
Packers 24 - 16
Ravens +2 at Steelers
This strikes me as a 50/50 game between two equal teams. As such I'll take the meager two points. Back the Ravens.
Ravens 21 - 20
Broncos -6.5 at Colts
I realize the Broncos are good, but this line is too big on the road against a solid Colts team that crushed the 49ers and beat Seattle. Back Indy.
Colts 34 - 33
Vikings +3 at Giants
The Giants finally covered last week, and more importantly, the offensive line played better. If that persists, I think they get their first win at home against a bad Minnesota defense. Back the Giants.
Giants 30 - 24
Last week we went 6-9 to go 36-52-4 on the year. Last year we went 121-129-6 on the regular season. From 1999-2012 we've gone 1,810-1,641 (52.4%), not including ties.