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According to the Data: How Does the Temperature Affect Passing Stats?

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News,, and NBC.

How Does the Temperature Affect Passing Stats?

Here's a chart on the effect temperature (at kickoff) has on passing production.

There's a pretty linear relationship here, with a very obvious drop when the temperature dips to around 20 degrees or below. That doesn't mean a quarterback is fine if it's 21 degrees and doomed at 20 degrees, obviously - there's more of a range of efficiency - but the point is very cold temperatures can have a significant effect on passing totals.

Although this effect might seem inconsequential, I think it can and should influence your lineup decisions. The drop in severely cold weather is nearly 10 percent from normal conditions, so that could easily tip the scales when you have a close lineup decision between two quarterbacks or receivers. By no means do I think you should select players based solely on the weather, but in the case of comparable value, the temp

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