Using Numbers to Predict WR Breakouts
They say that success equals opportunity plus preparation, but for NFL players, that simple equation needs to be refined. Namely, we need to add in "athleticism" as another variable:
Success = Opportunity + Preparation + Athleticism
That looks better. The reason athleticism - which I'm using broadly here to encapsulate all physical measurables - is so important as a predictor is because we see the same types of players succeed again and again.
As I've showed in the past few weeks, you want to search for explosive running backs
, as measured by the 40-yard dash and broad jump, who were drafted highly. For tight ends, the draft round and vertical jump - a measurable that doesn't matter at all for running backs - are the best tools for forecasting success
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