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Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps the Divisional Round

Chris Liss

Chris Liss

Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.

Last week, I went 0-3-1, but I'm not going to dwell on it too much. The only really bad call was Cincinnati, and that was a case of overweighting past results. Not only are final scores not the best measure of a team's quality (per-play averages, per-play success rates are much better), but even if one did use a good measure of prior quality, it's only somewhat predictive of future performance. Each game is completely independent of prior games, so it's incorrect to say the Bengals will win "because" they've blown out most of their opponents at home this year. That the Bengals were great at home this year was an indicator they might win, but it's certainly not a "cause" of anything happening on January 5. As for the 49ers-Packers game, now I know why I struggled with it so much.

For what it's worth, I had an easier time picking this week's divisional games that last week's wild card ones.

SATURDAY GAMES

Saints +8 at Seahawks

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