Rules for Drafting Rookies
Even though the majority of NFL organizations seem to make draft picks using a combination of a Ouija board and, even worse, the opinions of scouts, the top draft picks still turn into the best pros. That's probably mainly a self-fulfilling prophecy because the highest picks get the most playing time and more opportunities to succeed.
It doesn't really matter why the highest draft choices record the best fantasy numbers; for our purposes, we just want to know how much better a first-rounder is than, say, a third-round pick, and how we can use that data to predict rookie stats at each position.
Here's how rookies in each draft round have been able to contribute since 2000:
Third-round picks have provided around half as much bulk production as first-rounders. Interestingly, the difference between a fourth and sixth-rounder hasn't been all that much. Onc You've reached the end of our free article preview.
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