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According to the Data: Home/Road Splits

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

How to Project Passing Stats Based on Game Location (Home vs. Road):

We know teams play better at home because home teams typically see around a three-point spike in the Vegas lines. It follows that skill position players will post better fantasy numbers when they're playing at home as compared to when they're on the road.

But how much different? Are the differences meaningful? If so, do they extend to all positions? Can we translate the data into actionable information to help project players?

I'm not going to touch why home teams play better. In all likelihood, it's a combination of things: no travel, an extra day of game prep, the crowd, help from the referees, whatever. We know an effect exists, so I just want to figure out how we can potentially take advantage of it for fantasy purposes.
In this article, I'll take a look at passing stats.

Passing Stats Based on Game Location

I've done some research that sug

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