This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
CWS Best Bets Today: Louisville vs Oregon State
The greatest postseason in sports has arrived! The College World Series begins Friday, which makes me feel like a little kid running down the stairs on Christmas morning to see what Santa left under the tree. The left side of the bracket (Bracket 1) gets the nod with their two games, while Saturday begins the other side's set of Game 1's.
If you haven't watched a second of college baseball all season, now is the time to do so. My fantasy baseball players would be wise to get a look at their superstars of tomorrow. The field is littered with them.
The last few weeks have been chaotic, and I'm expecting the chaos to continue.
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Betting Strategies for the College World Series: Louisville vs Oregon State
Louisville Cardinals (+145)
Oregon State Beavers (-188)
Total: 10
I can't imagine too many people had this matchup on their Omaha bingo card at any point in the season, but here we are. As I mentioned in previous articles, this left side of the bracket is truly wide open. Who takes a pivotal Game 1?
The pitching matchup is set between two electric arms with first-round talent. Oregon State's freshman, Dax Whitney, has had some bumps in the road in his first season. Don't be fooled, though. This kid is talented.
His silly arsenal is led by a devastating heater that consistently hits the upper-90s. His last four outings have provided both him and his team with a lot of momentum and confidence. Dax has allowed just four earned runs in that span across 22 innings, along with 39 punchies. The 3.66 ERA and 111 K/36 BB ratio in 71.1 IP only give a glimpse at a possible top 10 pick down the road.
Whitney will have to contend with a relentless Louisville offense that applies pressure for all 27 outs. It's not just a .305 average, 83 bops, and 155 bags for this Cardinals lineup. It's a deep order 1-9 that can give an opposing pitcher fits. They bunt, always look to grab the extra 90 feet, and know how to manufacture runs in a variety of ways. Led by Eddie King Jr/ (.362 avg/17 HR), the Cards offense will be a tough test for a rookie making his first start on this big of a stage. For Whitney to give his team a chance to win, he needs to limit the base runners, especially via the free pass.
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On the other side, it's going to be Louisville's ace in Patrick Forbes toeing the rubber. It's legit first-round stuff for Forbes, who turned heads the opening week of the season by striking out 11 Texas hitters. An injury-riddled season curtailed him a bit as he registered a 4.36 ERA with several subpar outings. However, he's fully healthy now, which means he's going to be a handful for a Beaver lineup that's got some juice.
The 107 K's (66 IP) are a clear indicator of the kind of swing and miss stuff he possesses, though the 33 walks have been an issue. In several starts this year, we've seen walks completely derail what was an otherwise good start from Forbes. When his command evaporates, it shortens his outings significantly. He completed six innings in just four of his 14 outings.
If Forbes wants to have a signature Omaha performance, he will have to be sharp against a Beaver offense that has a lot of star power. Led by Aiva Arquette (potential 1st college bat in 2025), this Oregon State lineup has a few players who can completely rewrite the narrative. Along with Arquette's .354 average and 18 homers, it's Gavin Turley (.346 avg/19 HR) and Wilson Weber (.333 avg/12 HR) that have been the steady studs for this team all season.
The guy that they needed to get going was X-Factor, Trent Caraway. A potential '25 first-rounder, Caraway struggled for most of the year until his tournament breakout began. He's already up to six homers this postseason. If he continues to mash like this, the Beavers will have four legit sluggers that can carry the load at the plate.
The biggest difference for me in this one will be the bullpens. The Beavers can trot out about five quality+ arms to vanquish this hyper Louisville offense. Should Whitney fail to go deep enough, there are enough options to mix and match their way out of a tight spot. The Cardinals lack that same depth, with just two dependable arms behind Forbes.
Even in a difficult side of the bracket, Oregon State is set up well to succeed. I can absolutely see this one being a tight game, but the seniority and top-level talent for the Beavers should be the deciding factor. The current price is starting to hit the limit of where I would take them, though, so I'd advise jumping in now.
Pick: Oregon State ML -188 (DK)
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