This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last Article: 2-1
Year To Date: 5-4
While there aren't any early games today, there are 13 games on the docket which is pretty busy for a Monday. With the games not starting until later, there's plenty of time to find some good picks. Let's see what looks attractive.
Look at last time out, I won with the Cardinals -165, lost with the Yankees over 4 runs (-115) but then won with Pablo Lopez over 5.5 strikeouts (+110). I may have a blind spot when it comes to the Yankees...
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Caesars has this wager and I think if you're going to take the Rays at -190 to -200, you might as well take this instead. The chances of the game being tied going into the bottom of the ninth or the Rays pulling it out in the bottom of the ninth or extra innings likely isn't worth laying the extra -65ish in juice. Corey Kluber is coming off his worst start of the year at the Angels and this presents a much easier matchup for the veteran righty. Detroit has the second-worst wOBA in baseball (.265) against right-handed pitching and they strike out the 11th most (23.3 percent as well).
MLB Expert Pick for Tigers-Rays: Will the home team bat in the bottom of the ninth? No (-135)
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
This line is a bit different depending on the site you're looking at so as always, don't be afraid to shop it around. I was considering doing the game under at 11.5 but this Giants line looks more tempting to me. There have been three high-scoring games in a row in Colorado but I think taking a closer look at the pitchers in this one suggests a different outcome. Antonio Senzatela was just lit up by these Giants, so going under here is definitely a contrarian pick. However, Senzatela has always pitched better in Colorado than on the road (3.97 ERA at home last season, 2.10 in a smaller sample in 2020) and the weather is supposed to be a reasonably cool 72 degrees at Coors tonight.
MLB Expert Pick for Giants-Rockies: San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 Runs (-122)
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
It's important to sniff out this line as other sites have it at 4.5 but +120. I'd rather lay the extra juice here in case the Brewers end up with exactly four runs. Milwaukee leads baseball with a team wOBA of .367 at home against right-handed pitching and Ian Anderson hasn't gotten off to a great start with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Anderson has given up home runs in four of his last five games and his 22:16 K:BB rate (30 innings) shows his command isn't where it was last season.