This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for May 15: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 3-0 (+3.28 units)
Season 44-51-1 (-8.89 units)
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Key Trends in Today's MLB Matchups
With only 6 games on the slate and 3 in the afternoon/evening, I will bypass this section today.
Bullpen Rankings (updated 5/15/25)
Top 7 (Mets, Twins, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, Padres). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 7 (Angels, Marlins, Dbacks, White Sox, Nationals, Orioles, Rockies). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Best Bets and Predictions
You know I love me some Hunter Brown, but he is facing Jacob deGrom today and it will be hard to go against him. One of the system's I love to lean on is the F5 UNDER game total when there are two aces on the mound.
The key to handicapping these scenarios is looking at the odds and figuring out which brings the most value. You also need to project which totals make sense, some of them are going to be heavily juiced or weighted towards the action the book is seeing.
It is hard to find stats for first 3 innings, but you can get first time through the lineup which is close enough. That is what I used on the Kodai Senga UNDER 0.5 runs play on Tuesday.
Brown has allowed 7 runs in the first three innings in his 8 starts and deGrom has allowed 4 runs in the first three in his 8 starts. (0.88 and 0.50 for 1.38) which will just come in under the 1.5 through three innings we need. Neither offense is setting the world on fire and we will not have to worry about the bullpens.
The total is this game has already moved from 7.5 to 7.0 and I have it at 6.5 in my projections. It has moved to 6.5 at some sharper books.
MLB Best Bets: Astros/Rangers UNDER 1.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Insights
With a small slate, you have to dig more to find angles, systems, and values. I do like to look at F3 and F5 UNDER plays more especially if there is a number to exploit. We get that with a game total of 8.0 - 8.5 in the Rays/Jays.
Kevin Gausman has been lights out at home in his three starts with a 2.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP which is a good recipe for an UNDER as he will limit baserunners.
Gausman is tougher on righties versus lefties and the Rays are going to stack lefties against him today with at least 7 projected which does concern me. But Gausman's numbers the first time throught the lineup are elite with a .153 batting average, .208 on base percentage, and .232 wOBA.
There is not a lot of margin for error here and you have to avoid any miscues (errors, wild pitches, passed balls) to cash.
MLB Best Bet: Rays UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
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Athleticsat Los Angeles Dodgers Picks
The total in this game has already moved from 9.5 to 10.0 and that puts us in a tough spot with the Dodgers. The Dodgers smash at home, especially against righties, and Osvaldo Bido has allowed 9 home runs in his last 5 starts. In order to cash on a team total OVER, you need baserunners and power which we have on the Dodgers.
The Dodgers have averaged 7.5 runs per game in their last 10 at home and they put up 9 against the A's Wednesday. They are 8-2 to the OVER on their team total in their last 10 home games.
MLB Best Bet: Dodgers OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Astros/Rangers UNDER 1.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
- Rays UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Dodgers OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
