Zach Eflin
29-Year-Old
2023 Stats
W-L
16-8
ERA
3.50
WHIP
1.02
K
186
SV
0
2024 Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
The Rays never spend on free agency. Their last big buy prior to Eflin was a three-year deal with James Loney, so when the Rays gave Eflin a 3 year deal for $40M, it should have gotten more attention. The front office, and pitching coach Kyle Snyder, clearly saw they could get more from him, and indeed they did. They tweaked his repertoire to use more of his cutter, added a sweeper, and encouraged him to visit different parts of the strikezone allowing Eflinl to finish as the sixth most valuable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball in 2023. The 16 wins and 177.2 innings, and 186 strikeouts were career highs as he remained more durable than he had been in recent years with Philadelphia. 2023 was also the third straight season he kept his walk rate below five percent. The risk with Eflin is always his health, but the peripherals are as rock solid as his knee has been unstable in recent years. Read Past Outlooks
Builds up to four innings
Eflin threw 63 pitches across four innings in Monday's Grapefruit League game against the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
Eflin was hit hard, surrendering eight hits and eight runs (four earned). However, he spoke after the outing and said that he was working on specific pitches and throwing them in unusual situations, which was the cause of the poor results, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Eflin specifically noted that he got a good feel for his curveball, a pitch he used very effectively in 2023. The Rays haven't officially named their Opening Day starter for a matchup against the Blue Jays, but he would be the most logical candidate.
Eflin was hit hard, surrendering eight hits and eight runs (four earned). However, he spoke after the outing and said that he was working on specific pitches and throwing them in unusual situations, which was the cause of the poor results, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Eflin specifically noted that he got a good feel for his curveball, a pitch he used very effectively in 2023. The Rays haven't officially named their Opening Day starter for a matchup against the Blue Jays, but he would be the most logical candidate.
Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2023 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
83
Last 10 Games
82
Last 5 Games
81
How many pitches does Zach Eflin generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Zach Eflin generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2023
-19%
BAA vs LHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2021vs Left | .240 | 158 | 30 | 160 | 20 | |||
Since 2021vs Right | .257 | 192 | 25 | 184 | 22 | |||
2023vs Left | .210 | 80 | 13 | 69 | 9 | |||
2023vs Right | .259 | 106 | 11 | 89 | 10 | |||
2022vs Left | .277 | 29 | 9 | 38 | 4 | |||
2022vs Right | .209 | 36 | 6 | 32 | 4 | |||
2021vs Left | .264 | 49 | 8 | 53 | 7 | |||
2021vs Right | .286 | 50 | 8 | 63 | 8 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
-41%
ERA at Home
2023
-12%
ERA at Home
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2021Home | 2.89 | 1.02 | 193.0 | 9.5 | 1.3 | ||||
Since 2021Away | 4.88 | 1.22 | 166.0 | 8.0 | 1.5 | ||||
2023Home | 3.30 | 1.04 | 103.2 | 10.4 | 1.2 | ||||
2023Away | 3.77 | 1.00 | 74.0 | 8.0 | 1.2 | ||||
2022Home | 1.73 | 0.74 | 41.2 | 8.4 | 1.3 | ||||
2022Away | 6.88 | 1.59 | 34.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | ||||
2021Home | 3.02 | 1.20 | 47.2 | 8.3 | 1.3 | ||||
2021Away | 5.12 | 1.29 | 58.0 | 8.5 | 1.4 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Zach Eflin compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
7.75K/9
9.4BB/9
1.2HR/9
1.0Fastball
92.4 mphERA
3.50WHIP
1.02BABIP
.306GB/FB
1.73Left On Base
72.7%Exit Velocity
81.2 mphBarrels/BBE
5.8%Spin Rate
2240 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
23.0%Swinging Strike
11.4%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Zach Eflin See More
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Ronald Acuna holds onto the top spot in the RotoWire Roundtable despite his knee scare, but there's plenty of movement behind him.
Pablo Lopez leads a group of five starter pitchers who the projection systems aren't entirely sure what to do with.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
It was a nice moment when Eflin, who'd endured more of the Phillies' playoff drought than most, recorded his first career save in the game which clinched the the team's first playoff berth since 2011, but the fact that he was pitching in relief in the first place is unfortunately what fantasy managers should be primarily concerned with. Knee issues limited Eflin to 18 starts in 2021, and they didn't go away in 2022. He finished with 13 starts and seven relief appearances. When healthy, he was the same unexciting but capable pitcher he's been for the past several seasons, as his 4.04 ERA and 20.8 K% were both near matches for the 4.12 ERA and 21.4 K% he managed from 2019 through 2021. His 4.8 BB% was excellent, as usual, but while many low-whiff, low-walk pitchers become durable back-end starters, Eflin's injuries mean he lacks that reliability. The Rays are betting on some untapped potential and gambling on his health, as they gave him the richest free agent contract in team history (three years, $40 million). He should open the year in the middle of the rotation. Eflin's sinker and cutter show some intriguing movement qualities and he excelled at limiting hard contact last season (96th percentile average exit velocity), so perhaps the Rays can extract a career year with the aid of a massive home park upgrade.
More Fantasy News
Starting Game 2
Eflin will start Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Rangers on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up 16th win
Eflin (16-8) earned the win Tuesday, allowing three runs on five hits over five innings against Boston. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Notches 10 strikeouts
Eflin struck out 10 and did not factor into the decision in Thursday's win over Angels. He allowed two runs on six hits and one walk over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates Orioles
Eflin (15-8) allowed one earned run on one hit and no walks while striking out eight across seven innings to earn the win Friday against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Grabs 14th win
Eflin (14-8) earned the win Sunday, allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings against the Mariners. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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