Anthony Rizzo
Anthony Rizzo
29-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Chicago Cubs
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Rizzo has been remarkably consistent over the past three seasons, but don't let the carbon-copy counting stats fool you into thinking he's completely plateaued as a player; there was some skill growth in 2017. He improved his strikeout and walk rates roughly three percentage points each way, lifting his BB/K to 1.01 -- his previous career high was 0.74 -- which was the fifth-best mark in baseball. Rizzo's .397 xwOBA, up from .368 in 2016, ranked 12th among 301 players with at least 250 at-bats. He added almost 50 points to his OPS against lefties and Rizzo hit for power at Wrigley Field (15 homers). There's no need to overthink this one; Rizzo is a rock solid second-round pick, and a case can be made that he should sneak inside the first. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$The Cubs agreed to a seven-year, $41 million contract extension with Rizzo in May of 2013. The deal includes two additional years of club options that could it a nine-year, $73 deal.
Out of Saturday's lineup
1BChicago Cubs
September 15, 2018
Rizzo is not in the lineup against the Reds on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Rizzo will receive a rare day off after starting the past 36 games, during which he's hitting .308/.401/.523 with seven home runs and 18 RBI. In his place, Victor Caratini will man first base. Expect to see Rizzo back in the lineup for Sunday's series finale.
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Batting Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+16%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+33%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+3%
OPS vs RHP
2016
 
 
+17%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .800 541 63 22 94 4 .256 .353 .447
Since 2016vs Right .924 1444 198 66 219 15 .289 .395 .529
2018vs Left .671 157 11 4 26 1 .246 .312 .359
2018vs Right .895 461 57 20 69 5 .286 .393 .503
2017vs Left .881 179 27 10 35 3 .260 .374 .507
2017vs Right .906 512 72 22 74 7 .277 .398 .507
2016vs Left .832 205 25 8 33 0 .261 .366 .466
2016vs Right .970 471 69 24 76 3 .305 .393 .577
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+17%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+30%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+27%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .962 957 131 39 156 12 .310 .421 .541
Since 2016Away .824 1028 130 49 157 7 .254 .348 .475
2018Home .957 284 32 12 53 3 .316 .423 .534
2018Away .737 334 36 12 42 3 .243 .329 .408
2017Home 1.007 344 52 15 57 6 .319 .436 .571
2017Away .794 347 47 17 52 4 .228 .349 .445
2016Home .921 329 47 12 46 3 .295 .404 .516
2016Away .934 347 47 20 63 0 .289 .366 .568
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Stat Review
How does Anthony Rizzo compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.85
 
BB Rate
10.5%
 
K Rate
12.5%
 
BABIP
.281
 
ISO
.186
 
AVG
.276
 
OBP
.372
 
SLG
.462
 
OPS
.834
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Coming off consecutive 30-home-run seasons, Rizzo entered the year with lofty expectations and met them. He tied his career high of 32 big flies and set new career highs in RBI and batting average. While he was unable to replicate the 17 steals he put up in 2015, it now seems like a crazy anomaly considering he only has 19 steals over his five major league seasons excluding that season. Rizzo is clearly one of the league's better power hitters, finishing in the top 20 in slugging percentage each of the last three seasons. He's also a consistently disciplined hitter, taking at least 73 walks each of the last four seasons. At 27 years old, Rizzo is entering his prime and figures to be hitting in the middle of a potent lineup for years to come considering the plethora of young hitting talent the Cubs have. While he won't be the first fantasy pick, Rizzo won't last long on draft boards in 2017.
What do you want from your fantasy first baseman? How about 30 home runs, 90 runs, 90 RBI and 10 stolen bases? Or a slash line of .282/.387/.519? That's more or less what Rizzo has averaged the last two seasons, and he's just 26 and in the heart of a strong lineup. He's walked at least 70 times three years in a row, and his career-high 17 stolen bases last year was a pleasant surprise. Sure, Paul Goldschmidt does everything a bit better than Rizzo, but Goldschmidt does everything better than everybody. Rizzo might be the second first baseman off the board in fantasy drafts this year, and he should have his first 100-run/100-RBI season as long as he stays healthy.
Though the Cubs have a lot of young offensive talent, many of them with prodigious power, most struggle to get on base. Not so with Rizzo, who drew 73 walks last year and finished with a team-high .386 on-base percentage. Oh, and he also led the team in home runs, RBI, runs, slugging percentage, and OPS. Despite all the young players coming up at the ranks at seemingly every position, the Cubs don't have a can't-miss prospect at first base (the closest thing to it is Dan Vogelbach), meaning Rizzo's job is safe. Once those other young hitters start getting on base, expect the 25-year-old Rizzo to start racking up 100-RBI seasons.
On a team without many offensive bright spots, Rizzo has to qualify as such. Now just 24, Rizzo already has 39 home runs under his belt as he set career highs in pretty much every counting category in 2013. Unfortunately, with the increase in playing time came a serious decrease in his slash line: .233/.323/.419 is just not going to cut it for the offensive leader of any team, but the numbers are even more glaring at a position like first base. His 76:127 BB:K ratio isn't bad for a slugger, but the .259 BABIP just crushed him last year. Expect his numbers to bounce back as the BABIP normalizes and he continues his growth. Otherwise, it could be another long season at Wrigley.
After annihilating Triple-A for a couple months, Rizzo got the call to the bigs and posted a .900-plus OPS in June and July. An August slump was mitigated by a solid September, and it looks like Rizzo could be the team's first baseman for the next half-decade or more. Rizzo could stand to take a few more walks, but his contact rate was good for a 22-year-old home-run hitter in the majors, and there's little doubt about his power. It's likely a question of when not if with this future star, and he should be locked into the No. 3 spot in the Cubs' lineup after settling in there upon arrival and delivering a .820 OPS last season.
Rizzo was the biggest chip coming back to the Padres in the Adrian Gonzalez deal and was considered to be the team's first baseman of the future. He possess tremendous raw power, great bat speed, and exhibits quality patience at the plate. After hitting .331/.404/.652 with 26 home runs at Triple-A over just 413 plate appearances, the Padres brought him up to the majors. To say that his cup of coffee with the team was anything but cold and bitter would be an understatement. Over 153 plate appearances in the show, Rizzo hit just one home run and posted a woeful .281 OBP despite a solid 13.7 percent walk rate. His 70 percent contact rate was brutal, and it had many experts wondering how much of his minor league totals were inflated by the hitter-friendly parks in the PCL, not to mention how Petco stifling left-handed power would translate to his overall production. However, Rizzo caught a break this winter as he was dealt to the Cubs, a far better hitting environment in which to operate. Rizzo will likely begin the season at Triple-A, as the Cubs give veteran minor league Bryan LaHair a shot. But a strong showing from Rizzo there could see him up in the majors at any point this season, especially if LaHair struggles.
Rizzo emerged over the past two seasons as Boston's top power prospect, a view that was cemented with 25-homer season between High-A Salem and Double-A Portland in 2010. He became the first 20-year-old to hit 20 homers in the Double-A Eastern League since 1998. His development since overcoming Hodgkin's Lymphoma in 2008 is remarkable and made him a valuable prospect, eventually landing him in Boston's deal with San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez. He has a good approach at the plate, though he could work deeper counts, and is ready as a defender at first base. He's viewed as a high-character guy and good teammate, and appears headed to become the Padres' everyday first baseman in 2012.
More Fantasy News
Leading off Thursday
1BChicago Cubs
September 13, 2018
Rizzo will bat atop the order and man first base against the Nationals on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Scores, drives in run in win over Nationals
1BChicago Cubs
September 6, 2018
Rizzo went 2-for-4 with a walk, a double, an RBI and a run scored in Thursday's win over the Nationals.
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Will play Wednesday
1BChicago Cubs
September 4, 2018
Rizzo, who left Tuesday's game with a bruised right foot, will not miss Wednesday's game against the Brewers, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Leaves Tuesday's game
1BChicago Cubs
Foot
September 4, 2018
Rizzo exited Tuesday's game at Milwaukee with a right foot bruise, Carrie Muskat of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Collects three hits, home run in loss
1BChicago Cubs
September 3, 2018
Rizzo went 3-for-4 with a two-run home run in Monday's 4-3 loss to the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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