Justin Turner
Justin Turner
33-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Cast off by several clubs earlier in his career (including the Mets, if you hadn't heard), Turner has blossomed into one of the game's premier hitters, posting wRC+ marks over 140 in three of the past four seasons (123 in the other). His .322 batting average ranked fifth among qualified hitters last season, and he broke the 20-homer threshold for a second straight season despite not hitting his first long ball until Apr. 29 and later missing nearly three weeks with a hamstring injury. Turner walked more than he struck out, finishing second behind only Joey Votto in BB/K, while maintaining a top-30 hard-hit rate. He boosted his flyball rate to almost 48 percent (from 40 percent), so the pop seems here to stay along with the stellar average. There is some injury risk at 33 years old -- Turner has averaged 129 games played per season over his last four -- but there is virtually no performance risk. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $64 million deal with the Dodgers in December of 2016.
Fights through wrist soreness
3BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 17, 2018
Turner (wrist) started and went 2-for-4 with a double in Sunday's 5-0 loss to St. Louis.
ANALYSIS
Manager Dave Roberts revealed that Turner was dealing with a sore wrist after being hit by a pitch in Saturday's tilt, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports. The minor injury was not severe enough to hold the third baseman out of action, and his two-hit performance bodes well for his availability for the Dodgers' crucial upcoming series against the Rockies.
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Batting Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+4%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+14%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+41%
OPS vs LHP
2016
 
 
+44%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .924 494 67 19 58 5 .303 .403 .522
Since 2016vs Right .888 1049 139 42 150 8 .303 .377 .511
2018vs Left 1.038 124 18 3 14 0 .353 .460 .578
2018vs Right .907 254 37 10 33 2 .309 .398 .509
2017vs Left 1.181 172 27 11 30 4 .380 .477 .704
2017vs Right .837 371 45 10 41 3 .295 .386 .451
2016vs Left .640 198 22 5 14 1 .209 .303 .337
2016vs Right .919 424 57 22 76 3 .305 .356 .563
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+7%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+19%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .883 736 99 30 96 6 .297 .382 .501
Since 2016Away .916 807 107 31 112 7 .308 .388 .527
2018Home .980 190 29 9 21 1 .319 .416 .564
2018Away .917 188 26 4 26 1 .327 .420 .497
2017Home .966 243 32 10 35 4 .325 .424 .542
2017Away .928 300 40 11 36 3 .319 .408 .520
2016Home .758 303 38 11 40 1 .262 .327 .432
2016Away .902 319 41 16 50 3 .288 .351 .551
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Stat Review
How does Justin Turner compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.94
 
BB Rate
11.6%
 
K Rate
12.4%
 
BABIP
.341
 
ISO
.207
 
AVG
.319
 
OBP
.416
 
SLG
.526
 
OPS
.942
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Turner picked a great time to register his first full season in the majors, playing a career-high 151 games, stepping to the dish 622 times, and blowing away the 439 plate appearances recorded the previous season. Given that 2014's .404 BABIP is an outlier, last season's .293 landed on the low end of Turner's career range, despite a typical line drive rate and hard-hit percentage. One reason for the depressed BABIP was that he hit more flyballs than ever but since that resulted in 27 homers, no one is complaining. Baselining Turner for 2017 is tricky since we don't know if he'll maintain that elevated flyball rate. Then there's the issue of health. While there are countless examples of players losing the injury prone tag, Turner needs to stay on the field for another 150 games before he's absolved. When healthy, solid plate skills render Turner a solid floor; pay for that, not for the 2016 level of production.
Leg and knee issues limited Turner to 385 at-bats in 2015, but when in the lineup, he was again effective for the club, batting a solid .294/.370/.491. His 16 home runs bested his previous career high by nine long balls and his 60 RBI were also a career best. Perhaps it's the way he plays with all-out effort, but despite being a relatively young 31, Turner doesn't appear to be a guy we can count on for 500+ at-bats. He'll likely continue to need a day or two off per week, someone limiting his fantasy value, but after notching back-to-back solid seasons at the plate, Turner looks to be a guy we can rely on for solid production when he's in the lineup. Headed into 2016, the Dodgers appear set to roll with Corey Seager at shortstop, freeing up a likely return to the Opening Day third base job for Turner. Expect though to see the club bring in someone who can spell him from time to time.
Turner has spent time in four different organizations (Reds, Orioles, Mets, and Dodgers) in his career that dates back to 2006. He hit for average in the minor leagues, but had hit .260/.323/.361 in over 926 plate appearances at the major league level heading into 2014, with little hint of upside. Naturally, he hit .340/.404/.493 in 322 plate appearances in 2014. When one sees an 80-point jump in batting average, it's natural to want to look at the BABIP column and there, we find a .404 BABIP for Turner in 2014. Over the past six seasons, even with that .404 number factored in, Turner has a .322 BABIP. To say the utility infielder is due for some regression is an understatement. He is in for a Chris Johnson-like regression in 2015 and that’s unfortunate for his current fantasy owners because he doesn’t do much else at the plate. Roster carefully.
Turner reprised his role as backup infielder in 2013, seeing at least 12 games at all four infield spots in between injury-related absences. His strikeout and contact rates dropped, which doesn't bode for future success as his mild rise in batting average was propelled by an inflated BABIP. Turner's 2011 numbers appear to be the outlier this point, and he will no longer play for the Mets after being non-tendered during the offseason, but he could still get a chance to earn a utility role with another club.
Thanks to improved health at third base with David Wright, Turner saw nearly 300 fewer plate appearances in 2012 while his walk rate (4.9%) dipped back closer to his more recent minor league results. Although his .392 slugging percentage was an improvement, 2011 is probably as good as it gets now that he is 28 years old and is not even guaranteed steady at-bats even if one of the Mets' regular infielders lands on the disabled list. You can probably do worse than Turner when looking at $1 options in the endgame of NL-only leagues, but others will gamble and do much better because of his limited ceiling.
Turner started 2011 at Triple-A Buffalo, but was up by the third week of the year and saw action in a surprising 117 games. He replaced David Wright at third while Wright was out, earning National League Rookie of the Month honors in May, before seeing most of his action at second. Turner struggled for a large portion of the last four months of the season, but excelled with runners in scoring position. Daniel Murphy should open the year as the starting second baseman, however, pushing Turner back into a utility role.
Turner opened 2010 as an Oriole, but was waived and claimed by the Mets in May. He turned out to be one of Triple-A Buffalo's best players with a .333 average, a .906 OPS, 11 home runs and 58 runs in 84 games. Turner will be in the mix for the second base job in spring training, but is likely to start the year back in the minors.
Turner does most things well, but no single tool stands out. He pushed his way to a September callup and he could win a utility infielder role out of camp. If there is an injury in the middle infield he could be primed for some playing time, but he doesn't warrant much fantasy praise.
More Fantasy News
On base five times in rout
3BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 15, 2018
Turner went 3-for-3 with a walk, a hit by pitch and a pair of runs in Saturday's 17-4 victory over the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Drives in three vs. Reds
3BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 12, 2018
Turner went 2-for-5 with a double, three RBI and a run scored in Wednesday's win over the Reds.
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Gets breather
3BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 11, 2018
Turner is not in the lineup Tuesday against the Reds, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports.
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Posts four hits Sunday
3BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 10, 2018
Turner went 4-for-5 with a home run, two doubles, a walk, two RBI and two runs Sunday in the Dodgers' 9-6 win over the Rockies.
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Smacks 12th home run
3BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 3, 2018
Turner went 1-for-3 with a walk and solo home run Monday against the Mets.
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