Eric Hosmer
Eric Hosmer
28-Year-Old First Baseman1B
San Diego Padres
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Hosmer matched his career high with 25 long balls in 2017, but with the league-wide home-run rate also reaching a new apex, the first baseman’s total didn’t even put him in the top 60 in baseball. In spite of his non-elite power production, Hosmer still captured his first Silver Slugger award by chipping in 98 runs, 94 RBI and most notably, a career-best .318 batting average, which placed him second in the American League. Hosmer’s hit tool has always made him a more stable producer in the average category than most of his contemporaries, but banking on another .300-plus mark from the 28-year-old may be asking too much. Though Hosmer showed improved plate discipline and used the opposite field more than ever before, his average was aided by a .351 BABIP, which was 35 points above his career mark. The expected decline in average dings Hosmer’s outlook, but if he’s able to maintain his power gains from the past two seasons, he could still offer one of the more well-rounded rotisserie profiles at first base. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed an eight-year, $144 million contract with the Padres in February of 2018. Contract includes an opt-out clause in 2023.
Three-run shot
1BSan Diego Padres
September 15, 2018
Hosmer went 1-for-4 with a three-run homer against the Rangers on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Hosmer took Ariel Jurado deep in the third inning and accounted for all of the Padres' offense Saturday. He now has 17 home runs, four of which have come in the past eight days. Even with the power surge, he's had a disappointing season, with his RBI and run totals at their lowest points since 2014.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+31%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+48%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+23%
OPS vs RHP
2016
 
 
+24%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .651 649 65 18 91 4 .233 .280 .370
Since 2016vs Right .853 1324 182 49 172 13 .301 .373 .480
2018vs Left .543 223 17 4 24 2 .184 .242 .301
2018vs Right .802 412 52 13 41 4 .284 .352 .450
2017vs Left .760 208 27 6 27 1 .284 .327 .433
2017vs Right .938 463 71 19 67 5 .335 .410 .528
2016vs Left .656 218 21 8 40 1 .233 .275 .381
2016vs Right .813 449 59 17 64 4 .283 .354 .459
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+6%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+21%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+7%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+7%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .808 978 119 33 143 11 .284 .355 .453
Since 2016Away .765 995 128 34 120 6 .272 .331 .434
2018Home .777 320 31 9 33 5 .273 .341 .436
2018Away .644 315 38 8 32 1 .224 .286 .359
2017Home .913 327 49 16 51 2 .310 .385 .528
2017Away .853 344 49 9 43 4 .326 .384 .470
2016Home .735 331 39 8 59 4 .270 .338 .397
2016Away .787 336 41 17 45 1 .262 .318 .469
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Stat Review
How does Eric Hosmer compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.41
 
BB Rate
8.8%
 
K Rate
21.4%
 
BABIP
.301
 
ISO
.148
 
AVG
.251
 
OBP
.316
 
SLG
.399
 
OPS
.715
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Hosmer set a career high in homers and RBI in 2016, but then, who didn't? It's cliche, but the increased total was a matter of doubles and triples turning into homers, as his extra-base hits, slugging and isolated power all dropped. Hosmer's flyball percentage remained a low 25 percent; a 6.3 percent spike in HR/FB did the trick. The first baseman set another career high, fanning at nearly a 20 percent pace. This, in tandem with a low BABIP, especially against southpaws, led to his posting his second lowest batting average as a big leaguer (.266). All that said, Hosmer had a typical campaign, piggybacking the league trend of increased power and whiffs. He remains a fallback choice at first base, without the power usually attributed to the position but a volume contributor due to durability and an above average hit tool. If you miss out on the studs early, Hosmer remains a reliable consolation prize with a likely bounce-back in batting average, albeit with a drop in pop.
What feels like a career season for Hosmer was really more like a return to where he was in 2013 with a worse surrounding cast. The high average, high OBP and solid slugging percentage Hosmer put up in 2015 are things that he has done previously, but he had more runs scored and more runs driven in because he had a better team around him. The power that left him in 2014 came back last season and his HR/FB ratio returned to its previous levels, and he has now played in 150 games in three of the past four seasons. He could hit 20-plus homers in 2016, but there is little reason to believe a 30-homer season is anywhere in his future as long as he remains in Kansas City and his GB/FB ratio stays north of 1.5. Hosmer has to hit more flyballs to get there, and he’s at his best when he is hitting line drives all over the park.
Hosmer's counting stats suffered a significant drop-off in his 2014 season, but this can be partially attributed to a stress fracture in his hand that cost him most of August. Though many thought the first baseman was poised for a breakout season, he ended up posting career-lows in home runs (nine), RBI (58), runs (54) and steals (four). His batting average dipped 32 points from the season before, but some bad luck was to blame, as he recorded his lowest BABIP (.312) since the 2012 season. By the time Hosmer was able to get hot in the playoffs, it was too late for fantasy owners, but a .983 postseason OPS is cause for optimism heading into 2015. His 83.4% contact rate was right in line with his career average, but his line drive rate dropped over five points to 16.9%. Prospective fantasy owners are surely hoping he'll square up the ball a little bit better in his age-25 season, and if he can do that, it wouldn't be overly surprising to see him return close to the .801 OPS he posted in 2013.
Who knows what exactly George Brett said to Hosmer when he took over as the Royals' interim hitting coach, but whatever it was, it marked the turning point for the young first baseman and transformed him from a struggling hitter barely able to maintain a .250 average to a .300 hitter with strong gap power and the added ability to hit the long ball. Even after Brett stepped down, Hosmer continued to rake and batted over .300 in each of the final four months of the season with 16 home runs in that span. At just 24 years old, Hosmer has so much more ahead of him. If he can simply maintain his current level of plate discipline and contact rates, the power should continue to develop, giving him a very strong chance to elevate his game to a higher level worthy of an eventual place among the top-10 at the first base position.
Last season quickly became one to forget for the now 23-year-old Hosmer, who failed to build on his rookie season success. Though he showed some flashes of power in the early goings, Hosmer struggled to keep his batting average above .220 for the first two months and found himself in a hole from which he just could not dig himself out. He pressed at the plate, saw his strikeout totals increase, and failed to make clean contact. He had moments during the second half where it looked like he had the potential to work his way out of his struggles, but ultimately he failed and finished the year with a .232/.304/.359 slash line and his ISO dropped nearly 50 points from his rookie year. Most of Hosmer's struggles stemmed from mental hurdles, an unusually low .255 BABIP, and a shoulder issue that occurred early in the year which apparently lingered until he was shut down in mid-September, so there is definitely hope that he shrugs off the poor sophomore campaign. His price tag on draft day should be significantly lower in 2013, which could turn him into one of the better bargains this year.
Hosmer spent nearly a month at Triple-A Omaha before he was unleashed on the American League to show what all the hype was about. He finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting as he posted 19 home runs, drove in 78 runs, hit .293 and even stole 11 bases. He possesses a disciplined eye at the plate with an ability to drive the ball for power, which should serve him well for seasons to come. The only concern for fantasy owners is that there may be too much hype surrounding the 22-year-old, and he may not be able to fulfill many lofty expectations. Hosmer should make strides in 2012 toward establishing himself as the face of the Royals organization.
Hosmer is the clear-cut first baseman of the future for the Royals, and it seems the future remains a year away. With Billy Butler holding things down at first and the team going nowhere in the immediate future, the Royals aren't in a hurry to get Hosmer to the majors and start his service clock. The 21-year-old has more than held his own at every level and looks to be a bright spot for an organization that is going through some dark times.
Hosmer had vision problems that led to a miserable hitting campaign for the 2008 first-round draft pick (No. 3 overall). He's a left-handed hitter with raw power and overall upside, but it may take some time and lots of at-bats to reach that potential. He needs time to refine his mechanics and work on his stroke with his newly corrected vision (he had corrective surgery after the season). Hosmer's overall bat speed is evident, but he needs to learn to recognize pitches and be more patient at the plate. He could be ready by late 2012, but probably not much sooner. His draft position alone dictates that the Royals will be patient and give him every chance to succeed at lower levels before they expose him to the highest quality pitching, but he'll need to regain his confidence in 2010.
The Royals drafted Hosmer third overall out of high school in the 2008 amateur draft, but his inaugural professional season was truncated to 11 at-bats because questions arose as to whether he signed his contract before the deadline. Despite this, he is already being labeled as one of the organization's top hitting prospects. He has a big league body (6-3, 210) and can hit for both power and average, but Hosmer could still start the season at rookie ball because of his lack of playing time last summer.
More Fantasy News
Homers in third straight game
1BSan Diego Padres
September 9, 2018
Hosmer went 2-for-5 with a solo home run and two runs in the 7-6 win over the Reds on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Launches 15th homer
1BSan Diego Padres
September 8, 2018
Hosmer went 1-for-3 with a two-run homer in Saturday's loss to the Reds.
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Smacks 14th homer
1BSan Diego Padres
September 7, 2018
Hosmer went 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in Friday's 12-6 loss to the Reds.
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Hits two-run homer
1BSan Diego Padres
August 22, 2018
Hosmer went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run in Tuesday's win over the Rockies.
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Strong line in loss
1BSan Diego Padres
August 18, 2018
Hosmer went 2-for-5 with a home run, two RBI and a stolen base in Friday's 9-4 loss to Arizona.
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