Charlie Blackmon

Blackmon was a top fantasy option just two years ago. Sure, he’ll turn 33 in July and there are signs of skills decline, but chances are rumors of his demise are premature. Blackmon’s 19.3 K% last season was the highest of his career, but assuming it doesn’t get much worse, it’s still better than average. His power waned due to a four-point drop in flyball rate, but his 17.7 % HR/FB was his second best ever. Blackmon’s running has curtailed, but remember he swiped only 14 bags in his stellar 2017 season, a number certainly still within reach. Aside from playing in Coors Field, Blackmon’s numbers are driven by volume, playing at least 154 games four of the past five seasons, averaging 678 PA during that span. The market appears to be over-penalizing a fantasy stud for a down age-32 season. He may not rebound to a first-round, $30 level, but Blackmon has plenty left in his tank.

Blackmon's fourth full season with the Rockies was his best yet, as he established new career-highs in nearly every meaningful offensive category while becoming the fourth Colorado player in the last five seasons to capture the National League batting title. With another step forward in power, Blackmon's stolen-base output dropped slightly, and his lower success rate (14-for-24, 58.3 percent) could lead to fewer green lights in the future. Other than the declining efficiency on the basepaths, he's proven to be a very good player in an excellent situation. Over the past two seasons, he's shown significant improvement against lefties, topping out with a .952 OPS against southpaws in 2017. Blackmon was extremely productive at home last season, posting a .391/.466/.733 line at Coors Field, improving his home OPS by 300 points from 2016, and topping his road OPS (.784) by 455 points. Expecting a repeat is unfair, but he was nearly a top-five player with his 2016 numbers, so he'll likely be among the first 10-12 players off the board in 2018.

Although some toe injuries hampered Blackmon's ability to run last season (only 28 stolen base attempts, as opposed to 56 in 2015), those issues did not hold him back at the plate. The 30-year-old hit 35 doubles and 29 homers which propelled him to a stellar .324/.381/.552 slash line. Blackmon managed to bring his strikeout rate down below 16 percent, and his road splits were perhaps the most encouraging numbers of all. While most Rockies hitters have gaudy numbers at home that drop off as soon as they're away from Coors Field, the outfielder's OPS on the road was a mere 13 points lower than his OPS at home. If he can bring the stolen bases back into his game while maintaining this solid approach away from Coors Field, Blackmon should carry his weight as an early pick.

Blackmon ran a bit in the minors — he stole 30 bases as a 22-year-old in 2009 at High-A — but scarcely looked like a burner in his first few major league seasons. Blackmon was unleashed in 2015, and stole a career-high 43 bases in a tidy 56 attempts (76.7 percent). He now has 71 stolen bases over the past two years. Blackmon has also been a quality hitter, primarily due to his plus contact skills, as evidenced by his .288/.336/.437 career batting line. Thanks to the statistical inflation that is Coors Field, he has been good for 16 homers per 162 games and a .288 average since coming up in 2011. With Blackmon showing that he can be an efficient basestealer, he should have a green light throughout the 2016 season. Now that he's running wild, he can add an elite skill to an already well-rounded talent base.

The Rockies were prepared to go with a timeshare in both center field and the leadoff spot to open 2014, but Blackmon quashed those plans following a six-hit game in the season’s first week. It was a harbinger of what was to come over the rest of April for Blackmon, who was arguably the fantasy MVP during that month with an incredible .389 batting average, five homers, seven steals and 23 runs scored over 28 games. Alas, the first-year starter wasn’t able to sustain that level of production when his BABIP and HR/FB rate normalized, slashing a more earthly .271/.318/.405 from May onward. That larger sample represents a reasonable approximation for Blackmon’s 2015 line, and while certainly not eye-popping, the 28-year-old’s base-stealing skills and moderate power profile will allow him to rack up the counting stats while he retains a regular role at the top of the order. However, like many Rockies, Blackmon was prone to dramatic home/road splits last season, making him an optimal play in home-heavy slates to avoid the batting average drain away from Coors Field.

Foiled by a turf toe issue just a season before, Blackmon was actually the beneficiary of injuries in 2013. With Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler sidelined for large swaths of the second half, Blackmon received his first extended opportunity at regular duty in the majors and was magnificent, batting .309/.336/.467 in 258 at-bats, while showing moderate speed and power. He could stand for some improvement in plate discipline (2.7 percent walk rate), but his well-rounded skill set allows him to compensate for the deficiency. For the first time in his career, he'll now have a legitimate chance at earning a starting gig out of spring training, with Dexter Fowler out of the picture. Blackmon will face stiff competition from Corey Dickerson and Brandon Barnes for the job but should have the upper hand heading into the spring given his impressive finish to the previous campaign.

Blackmon missed nearly the entire first half dealing with a turf toe issue, taking him out of the running for a backup outfield spot during spring training. After a run of strong play at Triple-A Colorado Springs, Blackmon earned his callup to the Rockies. Late-season injuries in the outfield resulted in a de facto 2013 audition for Blackmon, who batted .362 while playing regularly in September. Though Blackmon's power has not been as quick to develop as some might have expected, his ability to hit for contact, get on base, and steal the occasional bag somewhat offset a lack of home runs. Blackmon's all-around skill set could give him an edge over much of the existing competition in the Rockies' outfield logjam, but he will likely be relegated to no better than fourth outfielder status entering the season.

Blackmon tore up the Pacific Coast League to earn a promotion to the big leagues last season, but he slumped in 27 games with the Rockies before a fractured left foot ended his season in July. On some teams, Blackmon might be a lock to grab a starting job during spring training, but he's currently in position with Colorado to enter a battle for a bench job barring a move or two by the Rockies' front office. In addition to carrying a steady contact rate through each stop in the minors, Blackmon has displayed a combination of power and speed that could make him a 20-20 threat capable of hitting for a good average at some point down the road. While the Rockies signed Michael Cuddyer as a free agent to start in right field, the trade of Seth Smith to Oakland increases Blackmon's chances of becoming the fourth outfielder this season.

Blackmon, the Rockies' 2008 second-round pick, profiles as a future everyday outfielder who can play all three positions and hit for a bit of power with some nice speed. In 2010, he hit .297/.360/.484 at Double-A Tulsa with 11 homers and 19 stolen bases. He finished the year with a nice showing in the Arizona Fall League with a .264/.372/.417 batting line. Thanks for the outfield depth ahead of him, Blackmon will probably spend much of 2011 at Triple-A Colorado Springs, while he waits for a callup. At 24 years old, he's a prospect worth tracking.