Justin Wilson
Justin Wilson
32-Year-Old PitcherRP
New York Mets
2019 Fantasy Outlook
On Sept. 22, Wilson was sitting pretty with a 2.93 ERA. After his final two appearances, his ERA ballooned to 3.46. Truth be told, until that point, he was outpitching his peripherals, as suggested by a high 1.35 WHIP. The final two outings merely brought his ERA in line with its estimators -- funny how that so often happens. A high WHIP is nothing new for Wilson as he sports an 11% career walk rate, posting a 14% mark the past two seasons. He compensates with a K% hovering near 30% the past two campaigns. He also keeps the ball in the yard, as evidenced by his 0.66 HR/9. The southpaw totes reverse splits (career .280 vs. RHB, .296 vs. LHB) that have been more exaggerated in recent seasons. With his control woes, Wilson is best suited in a late-inning setup role, but can close in a pinch. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#750
ADP
Add To Watchlist
$Signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Mets in January of 2019.
Continues to shine
PNew York Mets
August 6, 2019
Wilson gave up a hit and struck out two in a scoreless eighth inning during the first game of Monday's doubleheader sweep of the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
The southpaw has been one of the more dependable arms in the Mets' bullpen since coming off the IL, posting a 0.79 ERA and 10:6 K:BB through 11.1 innings since the beginning of July with two wins and four holds. Wilson's current 2.61 ERA on the season would be the best mark of his career since his rookie campaign with Pittsburgh in 2013.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-22%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-27%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .222 209 72 30 39 10 0 4
Since 2017vs Right .208 387 104 49 70 14 2 9
2019vs Left .273 40 10 7 9 2 0 0
2019vs Right .227 72 17 4 15 1 0 3
2018vs Left .190 93 32 13 15 3 0 3
2018vs Right .244 143 37 20 30 8 0 2
2017vs Left .234 76 30 10 15 5 0 1
2017vs Right .170 172 50 25 25 5 2 4
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-28%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-31%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-58%
ERA on Road
2017
Even Split
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.82 1.38 63.2 8 5 6 11.0 5.2 0.8
Since 2017Away 2.75 1.33 75.1 3 5 8 11.7 5.0 0.8
2019Home 1.86 1.34 9.2 0 0 0 12.1 4.7 0.9
2019Away 2.70 1.32 16.2 3 1 1 7.6 3.2 1.1
2018Home 5.04 1.52 25.0 4 3 0 9.4 4.7 0.7
2018Away 2.12 1.35 29.2 0 2 0 13.0 6.1 0.9
2017Home 3.41 1.28 29.0 4 2 6 12.1 5.9 0.9
2017Away 3.41 1.31 29.0 0 2 7 12.7 5.0 0.6
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Stat Review
How does Justin Wilson compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 20 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.45
 
K/9
9.2
 
BB/9
3.8
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
95.1 mph
 
ERA
2.39
 
WHIP
1.33
 
BABIP
.308
 
GB/FB
2.40
 
Left On Base
87.7%
 
Exit Velocity
85.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
2.9%
 
Spin Rate
2426 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
28.6%
 
Swinging Strike
12.4%
 
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Wilson
Mound Musings: Checking in on the Bullpens – National League
15 days ago
Brad Johnson dives into all of the changes that have been made in NL bullpens, including in Arizona where Archie Bradley takes on the closer role for now.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
138 days ago
Jan Levine surveys the free-agent landscape, including the Diamondbacks presenting a few prime add-ons at the plate and an analysis of the Brewers' bullpen battle.
Mound Musings: NL East Draft Day Targets
190 days ago
Mound Musings is back with Brad Johnson offering an in-depth look at the pitching staff of each division, starting with the NL East where the Braves have Kevin Gausman and a deep pool of young arms.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
341 days ago
Jan Levine reminds fantasy waiver wire pickers to snag the surging David Dahl, who's teasing 2019 sleeper value in the closing weeks of 2018.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
July 22, 2018
Jan Levine gives his weekly NL waiver wire tips, reminding Senior Circuit owners that Manny Machado is available and the Padres might have a new impact closer -- if they don't trade him, as well.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
We hear the narrative of having a setup man close to build up trade value all the time, and the Tigers pulled it off with Wilson. After tiring of Francisco Rodriguez in early May, Detroit elevated the fireballing southpaw to the ninth inning, where he racked up a dozen saves to add onto the one he recorded in early April. At the trade deadline, he was shipped to the Cubs as part of the deal that brought Jeimer Candelario to Motown. You wouldn't know Wilson throws left-handed by his splits, as he's much more effective versus righty swingers, which is odd since he's mostly a fastball-cutter pitcher, without a typical pitch to handle righties. He makes it work, parlaying a 96-mph heater into a 25 percent strikeout rate versus lefties and 26 percent mark with a righty in the box. Despite struggling with the Cubs, registering a 5.10 ERA and 2.10 WHIP with 25 strikeouts and a bloated 19 walks in 17.2 innings, Wilson enters 2018 as a key bullpen cog in Chicago, who should be in play for holds.
Wilson regressed slightly in his fourth full major league season after being traded to the Tigers, yielding a 4.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He was used in a similar role, making a lot of middle and late-inning appearances, and picked up 25 holds. Wilson continued to post a high strikeout rate, fanning 65 batters over 58.2 innings. Opponents hit .307 off his mid-90s fastball, so he threw a lot more cutters in 2016 after throwing 80 percent fastballs in 2015. With opponents' .340 BABIP and an uptick in HR/FB to 12.2 percent, Wilson probably suffered from some poor luck in 2016. If so, we can expect him to regress back towards his 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP numbers from 2015. The Tigers re-signed veteran closer Francisco Rodriguez, so Wilson should slide into a similar role in 2016 unless Rodriguez slips up or he gets traded. Wilson's value will most likely come from being a relatively high-strikeout reliever who gets holds.
Wilson quickly slotted into a late-inning role in his first year with the Yankees, posting career best marks of 9.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and a 2.69 FIP. The lefty has always been able to get out both lefties and righties, and was once again more effective against opposite-handed hitters in 2015, holding righties to a .216/.275/.318 line against. The 28-year-old was actually unlucky to not have an even better season than he did, as he suffered from a career-worst .305 BABIP. If that number comes back down in 2016, he could put up numbers more similar to his breakout 2013 campaign when he worked to a 2.08 ERA in 73.2 innings. Traded to Detroit in the offseason, Wilson will likely be inserted into a high-leverage role and could help out in formats that value holds.
A repeat of Wilson's outstanding 2013 campaign was never realistic, as he benefited greatly from a .229 BABIP and 84.9% strand rate, but the southpaw's surface numbers declined a bit more than most expected. His ERA more than doubled to 4.20, and lefties hit a combined .253/.314/.367 against him, up from .200/.266/.235 a year before. The 27-year-old's walk rate jumped, from 3.4 BB/9 to 4.5 BB/9, but so did his strikeout rate, by an even two per nine innings no less (from 7.2 K/9 to 9.2 K/9) and his xFIP only increased by a mere six points. Wilson also maintained a groundball rate above 50 percent (51.3%), and he held opposing batters to just a .209 average after the All-Star break. Now a member of the Yankees following a November trade, Wilson figures to slot in as a late-inning lefty out of the bullpen, making him of some interest to those in leagues that count holds.
Wilson exceeded expectations in 2013, going 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 73.2 innings. The 26-year-old southpaw threw a heavy 95.3 mph average fastball, but finished with just a 7.2 K/9 rate. His 59:28 K:BB rate shows his penchant for losing the strike zone at times, but a 3.4 BB/9 rate marked the first time he's been lower than 4.0 BB/9 in six pro seasons. Despite being a two-pitch pitcher, Wilson mostly started in the minors -- he struck out 138 in 135 Triple-A innings in 2012. There's always a chance Pittsburgh could try him again in the rotation. File that away, and also remember that he totaled only 6.2 innings in September, indicating that he was fatigued from a heavy early-season workload, or was dealing with some sort of injury.
Wilson, 24, pitched at Triple-A Indianapolis for the second consecutive season, improving both his ERA (4.13 to 3.78) and WHIP (1.51 to 1.16). He's got a deadly fastball (averaging 93.9 mph) and pitched in parts of two no-hitters for his club. General manager Neal Huntington saw fit to move him back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen in 2012, making his long-term role uncertain. Until Wilson improves his control -- he's got a career 4.5 BB/9 rate -- he represents a bit of a wild card. He'll fight for an Opening Day roster spot, but is more likely to make his season debut in Pittsburgh sometime during summer.
More Fantasy News
Back from IL
PNew York Mets
July 2, 2019
Wilson (elbow) was activated from the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Restarts rehab assignment
PNew York Mets
Elbow
July 1, 2019
Wilson (elbow) resumed his minor-league rehab assignment Saturday with short-season Brooklyn, tossing a scoreless inning.
ANALYSIS
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Feels good after bullpen session
PNew York Mets
Elbow
June 25, 2019
Wilson (elbow) threw a bullpen session without discomfort Tuesday, Justin Toscano of The Bergen Record reports.
ANALYSIS
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Returning to throwing
PNew York Mets
Elbow
June 21, 2019
Wilson (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session within the next couple days, Justin Toscano of The Bergen Record reports.
ANALYSIS
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MRI returns clean
PNew York Mets
Elbow
June 20, 2019
Wilson's (elbow) MRI results came back clean Thursday, Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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