Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk
29-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Toronto Blue Jays
2020 Fantasy Outlook
The good news is Grichuk was an everyday player for the first time in his career. The bad news is his rate stats dropped across the board. He didn't tank; he just performed a tick below normal, especially against right-handed pitching. By the numbers, Grichuk's walk and strikeout rates were normal for him, but his average exit velocity dropped while his barrels fell precipitously. The result was Grichuk's lowest BABIP of his career, dragging down his slash line across the board. Grichuk is only one season into a five-year extension signed last spring, so the Blue Jays are committed to him. Look for the 28-year-old outfielder to play regularly and rebound from last season's downturn. That said, his average is limited by a poor contact rate and he has no speed. He's got pop, but so, it seems, does everyone. If you can absorb the average hit, Grichuk can be an asset, albeit with marginal upside. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#195
ADP
$Signed a five-year, $52 million contract extension with the Blue Jays in April of 2019.
Slugs 12th homer
OFToronto Blue Jays
September 27, 2020
Grichuk went 1-for-2 with a three-run home run in Saturday's 5-2 win over the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
Entering the game in the sixth inning after Lourdes Gurriel came out due to a foot contusion, Grichuk supplied the biggest hit of the night when he took Hunter Harvey deep in the seventh. The 29-year-old extended his hitting streak to six games with the blast, and Grichuk is slashing .409/.458/.818 over that stretch with three of his 12 homers on the year.
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Batting Stats
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2019
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2017
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
15
1
5
7
2
5
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
10
4
1
4
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+11%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+43%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+10%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+1%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018vs Left .821 414 50 20 54 2 .266 .319 .503
Since 2018vs Right .739 884 116 46 117 4 .231 .278 .461
2020vs Left .980 58 8 4 9 0 .327 .362 .618
2020vs Right .683 150 23 6 21 1 .237 .280 .403
2019vs Left .784 206 24 9 26 1 .250 .311 .473
2019vs Right .715 422 51 22 54 1 .224 .265 .450
2018vs Left .810 150 18 7 19 1 .263 .313 .496
2018vs Right .800 312 42 18 42 2 .237 .295 .505
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+17%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+20%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+15%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+19%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018Home .829 620 94 41 96 2 .253 .302 .528
Since 2018Away .707 678 72 25 75 4 .231 .282 .425
2020Home .848 89 19 5 11 1 .288 .348 .500
2020Away .708 119 12 5 19 0 .246 .269 .439
2019Home .791 296 41 19 46 0 .243 .284 .507
2019Away .689 332 34 12 34 2 .222 .277 .412
2018Home .871 235 34 17 39 1 .255 .306 .565
2018Away .733 227 26 8 22 2 .236 .295 .438
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Stat Review
How does Randal Grichuk compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.27
 
BB Rate
5.6%
 
K Rate
21.2%
 
BABIP
.299
 
ISO
.208
 
AVG
.273
 
OBP
.312
 
SLG
.481
 
OPS
.793
 
wOBA
.330
 
Exit Velocity
83.3 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
34.9%
 
Barrels/PA
8.5%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2011
2010
Grichuk has had three full seasons at the big-league level, and they have all been remarkably similar across the board. The change in his home park did little to impact his home-run total or his run production, but he did reduce his strikeout rate (to 26.4%) and got a small bump in OBP for those who play in that format. Grichuk does not have the normal type of splits you would expect from a hitter with a lower average. He hits with more power against righties, but it comes at the cost of contact. When he faces lefties, Grichuk makes more contact and hits for a higher average, but not for as much power. Last season saw him get off to a horrendous start at the plate, which was followed by a sprained knee that wiped him out for all of May. He hit .271/.319/.553 once he came off the disabled list with 54 extra-base hits in 385 plate appearances. A sleeper source for 30 homers in 2019.
The tools remain exciting, but the clock is ticking on Grichuk. He needs to learn to be more patient and selective at the plate. His strikeout rate has hovered around 30 percent in each of the past three seasons, with his O-Swing percentage sitting up in the high-30s. His walk rate has ranged from 5.9 percent to 6.3 percent since the start of 2015, leading to sub-.290 OBPs the last two seasons. Grichuk sure hits the ball hard when he does connect, as evidenced by his 10.0 Brls/PA rate last season, which ranked sixth in the majors (min. 190 batted-ball events). The Cardinals traded him to Toronto this winter, where he should compete for an everyday role in right field in spring training. However, if he can't learn to make more consistent contact and get on base more, he could be passed over for Teoscar Hernandez or Anthony Alford.
Grichuk's strong 2015 campaign had him in a very favorable position heading into 2016, with an everyday job, plus power and what many believed to be an average hit tool. However, things went south in a hurry for the 25-year-old, as he came out of the gate with just a .206 batting average and strikeouts in a quarter of his plate appearances through mid-June. This led the Cardinals to shock everyone and send him back to the minors on two occasions during the summer. His performance vastly improved after the second demotion, as he slashed .275/.303/.579 with 12 home runs and 33 RBI, although it came with an unsustainably-high 34.1 percent strikeout rate. He will open the season as the everyday left fielder, although he showed in 2016 that he can be incredibly streaky, so he should be treated as a volatile asset. Grichuk will need to make more consistent contact in order to stay in manager Mike Matheny's good graces.
Grichuk came up to the big leagues for good on May 16th and clubbed nine extra-base hits in 13 starts over the rest of the month, enough to earn him a starting job for the rest of the season. He finished with a ridiculous 57 extra-base hits in just 103 games and 350 plate appearances, including 17 home runs. That's a huge power output for just over half a season's worth of at-bats, and it should be enough to earn Grichuk an Opening Day starting job despite a crowded outfield in St. Louis. Grichuk still has the same contact issues that kept him in the minor leagues to begin 2015, however, as he managed to strike out 110 times despite his limited action. He seems to have the power to succeed even with a high K-rate, but the .276 average Grichuk mustered will be his ceiling unless he can find a way to make more contact.
Grichuk bounced back and forth between Triple-A Memphis and the major leagues for the Cardinals in 2014 after being acquired in the David Freese trade with Anaheim, totaling 110 at-bats in 47 games. He served as a defensive replacement and pinch-hitter in most cases. Grichuk does have some power as indicated by his 25 home runs in 436 at-bats for Memphis, but he appears to be headed for a similar role in 2014 after the Cardinals acquired Jason Heyward from Atlanta. Barring major injury to one of the regulars ahead of him, or a trade, Grichuk might be a full year away from getting an opportunity to handle a starting job.
Grichuk was promoted to Double-A Arkansas after a reasonably strong year at High-A Inland Empire in 2012, and represented himself well, posting a slash line of .256/.306/.474 in 500 at-bats in 2013. While it's easy to get excited about his prodigious power potential (.218 ISO in 2013), Grichuk still needs to work on his plate discipline, as his 5.2% walk rate in 2013, though an improvement from his 2012 number, is still well below commonly accepted margins. Going into his age-22 season, Grichuk's plate discipline seems to be the final piece of the puzzle. The Cardinals acquired Grichuk as part of the David Freese-Peter Bourjos deal in November, which likely makes his path to big league at-bats even longer than it was in the crowded Anaheim outfield. Most likely, he'll start the season at Double-A Springfield, with the hope of earning a promotion to Triple-A Memphis at some point in 2014.
Grichuk was drafted 24th overall in the 2009 draft and finally made it through a full season without any injuries in 2012. He spent all of last season with High-A Inland Empire and slashed .298/.335/.488 with 18 homers and 16 steals over 575 plate appearances. His talent is obvious, but 23 walks over that many trips to the plate probably won't cut it, and as is the case for a number of the Angels' top prospects, Grichuk needs to work on his plate discipline. That's easier said than done and his four percent walk rate in 1,313 minor league plate appearances indicates that he has a long ways to go.
Grichuk will not turn 20 until mid-way through the 2011 season, but he already has two professional seasons under his belt. Last season, Grichuk hit .299 with 11 home runs and 46 RBI in 251 at-bats, but he still has to work on his plate discipline after posting a 12:59 BB:K ratio last season. Don't expect Grichuk to advance past High-A Rancho Cucamonga this season.
The Angels' first pick in the 2009 draft is all hitter, an outfielder from a high school in Texas with excellent power. There's not much else to Grichuk, no speed or arm to speak of, making him a different sort of Angel. He's a long, long way from the majors, and the lack of defensive or positional value limits his long-term upside.
More Fantasy News
Not starting Saturday
OFToronto Blue Jays
September 26, 2020
Grichuk will sit Saturday against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Socks 11th homer
OFToronto Blue Jays
September 25, 2020
Grichuk went 2-for-5 with a solo home run and a second run scored in Friday's 10-5 win over the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Scores twice in rout
OFToronto Blue Jays
September 24, 2020
Grichuk went 1-for-4 with a walk, two runs and an RBI in Wednesday's 14-1 win over the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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Blasts 10th long ball
OFToronto Blue Jays
September 21, 2020
Grichuk went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and an RBI single in Monday's 11-5 win over the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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Three hits in Friday's twin bill
OFToronto Blue Jays
September 5, 2020
Grichuk went 3-for-7 with two doubles, two runs scored and two RBI across both games of Friday's doubleheader against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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