Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado
27-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
Colorado Rockies
2018 Fantasy Outlook
For the third consecutive season, Arenado finished as a top-six fantasy earner among hitters. He's averaging 40 homers and 131 RBI over the past three years, and his batting average has seen steady growth as Arenado has learned to be more patient (9.1 percent walk rate last season) and work the ball the other way when he has to. There was a notable dip against right-handers in 2017, with his OPS against righties falling more than 100 points to .843, but his bounce-back against lefties more than made up for it. He remains a Gold Glove defender at third base, so he's on the field every day, plus he's productive away from Coors Field (.283/.355/.531 on the road last season). Arenado makes consistent contact, is just entering his age-27 campaign and his home park gives him an excellent floor for fantasy production. Thinking Arenado won't return first-round value again seems silly at this point. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Agreed to terms with the Rockies on a one-year, $5 million contract in January 2016, avoiding arbitration.
Three hits, homer in win
3BColorado Rockies
September 12, 2018
Arenado went 3-for-4 with a home run, two doubles and two RBI in Wednesday's win over the Diamondbacks.
ANALYSIS
Arenado brought home his first run with an RBI double in the third inning, then later brought Colorado back within one with a solo shot in the fifth. The 27-year-old has been as reliable as always, and is now hitting an even .300 to go along with 33 home runs and 99 RBI.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+29%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+50%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+56%
OPS vs LHP
2016
 
 
+9%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left 1.123 554 107 40 107 2 .350 .428 .696
Since 2016vs Right .870 1443 205 72 257 5 .280 .347 .523
2018vs Left 1.196 202 38 15 37 0 .366 .446 .750
2018vs Right .800 420 58 19 64 2 .261 .339 .461
2017vs Left 1.313 165 37 16 47 0 .420 .473 .840
2017vs Right .843 514 63 21 83 3 .272 .341 .502
2016vs Left .872 187 32 9 23 2 .267 .369 .503
2016vs Right .953 509 84 32 110 0 .304 .360 .593
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+27%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+42%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+17%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+24%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home 1.052 981 190 64 217 2 .329 .400 .652
Since 2016Away .831 1016 122 48 147 5 .271 .340 .491
2018Home 1.095 300 59 20 56 1 .344 .427 .668
2018Away .771 322 37 14 45 1 .250 .324 .447
2017Home 1.036 329 63 19 76 0 .336 .392 .644
2017Away .886 350 37 18 54 3 .283 .355 .531
2016Home 1.030 352 68 25 85 1 .312 .384 .646
2016Away .832 344 48 16 48 1 .277 .340 .492
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Stat Review
How does Nolan Arenado compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.59
 
BB Rate
11.0%
 
K Rate
18.6%
 
BABIP
.315
 
ISO
.254
 
AVG
.294
 
OBP
.372
 
SLG
.548
 
OPS
.920
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Arenado managed to one-up himself yet again and at just 25 years old, it seems like sky's the limit. The All-Star smashed a league-leading 41 home runs, drove in 133 runs and even reached the century mark in runs scored. He managed to cut down on his strikeouts and draw twice as many walks as he did the previous season. As one would imagine, the third baseman's numbers were better at Coors Field than away from it (1.030 OPS at home vs. .832 OPS on the road), but 16 home runs, 48 RBI and 48 runs scored away from Denver is certainly nothing to scoff at. The Gold Glover is a lock to be a first-round draft pick. Even if doesn't replicate his 2016 campaign to a tee, Arenado will be a highly valuable asset in 2017 and for years to come.
Arenado broke out in 2015 and rode his sweet swing to a National League-leading 42 home runs and 130 RBI and his first All-Star appearance. And although Arenado was a far superior overall hitter at Coors Field (.960 OPS compared to .835 on the road), he actually hit 22 of his 42 home runs on the road. Additionally, he is an impatient hitter, and his aggressiveness was particularly exploited on the road (.296 OBP). However, his combination of good contact skills, big-time power and 81 games per year at Coors Field make him a surefire first-round pick in drafts this year. Arenado has also steadily increased his flyball rate every year in the majors — a key factor in his power explosion. Only four third basemen hit 30 home runs in 2015 and only three managed 100 RBI, so even if Arenado cannot match last year's breakout performance, he will finish high on the leaderboards.
A broken finger and bout with pneumonia may have limited Arenado to 111 games in 2014, but it didn't prevent him from surpassing the production from his rookie season in nearly every meaningful category. In addition to the defensive wizardry that earned him his second Gold Glove, Arenado noticed a 122-point rise in OPS while also upping his walk rate and trimming his strikeout rate from a season earlier. As is typical for most Rockies batters, Arenado did the bulk of his damage at Coors Field, where he slashed .303/.344/.584 and swatted 16 of his 18 home runs. Those skewed splits figure to persist throughout his career, but given his pedigree as a former top hitting prospect, the still-developing Arenado should see continued improvement in both his plate discipline and road performance as he enters his age-24 season. Those expected developments -- along with some better luck on the health front -- would surely lead to another jump in his counting stats, perhaps vaulting Arenado into the top tier of fantasy third basemen in 2015.
Arenado got the call to the big leagues in late April and never looked back, holding down the everyday job at third base while delivering a sterling 2.7 WAR mark. Much of that value derived from his defense, as Arenado disputed earlier scouting reports suggesting he was slow-footed by finishing second among NL third basemen in UZR and accruing a number of highlight-reel plays on his way to a Gold Glove Award. Arenado’s work in the batter’s box wasn’t quite as sublime as his play in the field, but the 22-year-old acquitted himself well with a .267/.301/.405 line. Prior to reaching the majors, Arenado was universally recognized as one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball, making further improvement from last season’s offensive marks a relatively safe assumption. As he matures, Arenado figures to add further power, while the hitting environment of Coors Field should allow him to maintain a consistently high batting average. A breakout might not fully metastasize next season, but Arenado should at least get things trending in that direction.
Arenado did not have the smashing success most projected for him in 2012 after he entered spring training fresh off earning Arizona Fall League MVP honors. While the .285/.337/.428 line he delivered at Double-A was nothing to scoff at, he mustered just 12 home runs in 516 at-bats, leaving some questions about his long-term viability as a power bat. Still, Arenado is just 21 years old and already boasts elite plate discipline and contact skills while markedly improving his defense at third base, allaying concerns that he would eventually need to move to first base. Arenado will likely open the season at Triple-A Colorado Springs, and if he continues to demonstrate that he can get on base at a high clip and hit for extra bases, he should get some run with the Rockies later in 2013.
Arenado capped off an impressive age-20 season in the California League by earning MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League. A good defender at a premium position, the right-handed hitting third baseman could fill an immediate need for the Rockies before the end of 2012. Keep in mind, however, that he'll almost certainly open the year at Double-A Tulsa and spend another half season of development in the minors before a promotion to Colorado is considered. While both of his 2011 stops were hitter-friendly environments, his power and contact skills (88 percent in the AFL, 90 percent at High-A) project him as a middle-of-the-order bat and potential star soon after his big league arrival.
Arenado, Colorado's second round pick in 2009, had a strong season at Low-A Asheville with 12 home runs and a .858 OPS. His 41 doubles will likely turn into more home runs as he grows. He doesn't walk much, but it's somewhat offset by his lack of strikeouts. A strong season at High-A could put him on the fast track to the majors.
More Fantasy News
Gets rare day off
3BColorado Rockies
September 8, 2018
Arenado is not starting Saturday against the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
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Cutting down pregame work
3BColorado Rockies
September 1, 2018
Arenado, who was slumping heading into Saturday's game and dealing with occasional pain in his right shoulder, has decreased his pregame work in order to rest more, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Right shoulder not significant issue
3BColorado Rockies
September 1, 2018
Arenado said his right shoulder, which sidelined him briefly in early August, still bothers him sometimes but doesn't affect his swing or his defense at third base, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hits 31st home run
3BColorado Rockies
August 25, 2018
Arenado went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and a walk in Friday's loss to the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Hits 30th home run
3BColorado Rockies
August 14, 2018
Arenado went 1-for-4 with a walk and a two-run home run in Tuesday's win over the Astros.
ANALYSIS
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