Max Kepler

29-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Minnesota Twins

2022 Stats

AVG

.254

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2022 Fantasy Outlook

With another mediocre performance last season, Kepler's 36-home run 2019 season continues to look like an outlier instead of a breakout season. Kepler hit .211 with a career-low .719 OPS last season. He struggled against left-handed pitching, hitting two home runs with a .509 OPS against southpaws and losing playing time to lefties late in the season. His platoon splits have been a constant struggle aside from the 2019 career year (.880 OPS vs. LHP). Kepler draws walks at a good clip (11.0%) but has struggled to get hits due to a chronically low BABP (.225 last season). He offers good defense with a 9 DRS in right field (ranking 6th among RFs) and is passable in short stints in center field. He also has decent speed and was more active on the bases with a career-high ten steals. He'll begin the season as the starting right fielder, but his inability to hit lefties could see him fall into a platoon. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#297

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'4"

Weight 225

DOB 2/10/1993

Born Berlin, Germany

College None

Drafted 2009 MIN

Out against southpaw

OFMinnesota Twins

May 16, 2022

Kepler is out of the lineup for Monday's game in Oakland.

ANALYSIS
The Twins will deploy a righty-heavy lineup to counter Athletics southpaw Zach Logue, ending a streak of 10 consecutive starts for the lefty-hitting Kepler, who turned in a .606 OPS over that stretch. Gilberto Celestino will replace Kepler in right field.

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Batting Stats

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2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+49%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+8%

OPS vs LHP

2021

+56%

OPS vs RHP

2020

+131%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.550	223	15	3	19	2	.172	.274	.276
Since 2020vs Right	.818	593	86	30	74	12	.243	.337	.481
2022vs Left	.828	48	3	1	7	0	.270	.396	.432
2022vs Right	.767	89	10	4	9	1	.253	.337	.430
2021vs Left	.509	129	7	2	8	2	.157	.248	.261
2021vs Right	.796	361	54	17	46	8	.232	.327	.469
2020vs Left	.392	46	5	0	4	0	.125	.217	.175
2020vs Right	.904	143	22	9	19	3	.266	.364	.540
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+6%

OPS at Home

2022

+2%

OPS at Home

2021

+1%

OPS on Road

2020

+27%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.764	414	52	18	48	8	.225	.331	.433
Since 2020Away	.723	404	48	15	45	6	.223	.307	.416
2022Home	.794	83	8	4	10	0	.229	.337	.457
2022Away	.780	54	5	1	6	1	.304	.389	.391
2021Home	.715	247	29	11	27	5	.204	.308	.408
2021Away	.723	243	32	8	27	5	.219	.305	.419
2020Home	.879	84	15	3	11	3	.286	.393	.486
2020Away	.694	107	11	6	12	0	.196	.271	.423
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Max Kepler compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a batter in feet per second.

BB/K

0.68

BB Rate

11.3%

K Rate

16.5%

BABIP

.273

ISO

.175

AVG

.254

OBP

.353

SLG

.430

OPS

.783

wOBA

.340

Exit Velocity

82.7 mph

Hard Hit Rate

35.5%

Barrels/PA

7.5%

Sprint Speed

23.5

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Twins Depth Chart

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Max Kepler

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Yesterday

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5 days ago

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Kepler took a step back last season after a breakout 2019 campaign as he returned to struggling against lefties. After hitting nine home runs with a .880 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2019, he did not homer and posted just a .378 OPS against lefties last season. Kepler changed his approach at the plate becoming less of a pull hitter (53.4% in 2019 to 44.1%), which is more in line with the rest of his career. He draws walks at a good clip (11.2%) but has struggled to get hits due to a chronically low BABP (.236 last season). Without the 30-plus home run power of his 2019 season, his profile looks fairly average for a corner outfielder. He usually adds strong defense in right field, though his metrics took a step back last year as well (-0.2 UZR). He did play through a strained abductor in September, spending time on the injured list, which may have limited him. He's set as Minnesota's everyday right fielder, but was his step back the result of a small sample or did it show 2019 was an outlier?

Kepler had a breakout season with 36 home runs and an .855 OPS after his career appeared to stall following three similarly mediocre seasons. The Twins surprisingly made Kepler the team's leadoff hitter to begin last season, as despite his low career OBP to that point, he had always drawn walks and could add power to the top of the lineup. Kepler responded with a power surge that included a .267 ISO, the result of pulling the ball more (career-high 53.4%) and more consistent hard contact. He also continued to hit well against left-handed pitching after struggling against southpaws earlier in his career. Kepler is a plus defender in right field (his 9.9 UZR was third in MLB) who has held his own when pressed into center-field duty (2.8 UZR, 16th in MLB). At age 27, Kepler is in his prime and could continue to improve if a perennially-low hit rate (.244 BABIP last year) ever moves higher.

While Kepler hit a career-high 20 home runs and played in 156 games, he hit just .224 and his SLG declined slightly from his underwhelming sophomore season. He may have been a bit unlucky with a .236 BABIP, though he's had a BABIP below .277 the past three seasons. The underlying numbers show some signs of skill growth. He improved both his walk rate (11.6%) and strikeout rate (15.7%) to career bests. He also appeared to finally solve left-handed pitchers with a .745 OPS that was better than his mark against righties. His increased contact (82%) would seem destined to produce more hits this season. His glove will keep him in the lineup even if he doesn't improve -- Kepler is seen as a plus defender in right field, ranking fifth in DRS, and can play center field in a pinch. At age 26 and with an everyday job for the Twins, a significant improvement still seems possible.

Kepler enters 2018 as Minnesota's starting right fielder and will try to improve on a somewhat disappointing second year in the majors. He showed promise in his rookie season with a surprising surge in power that included three homers in one game. His numbers were very similar in his second season, failing to show much improvement while taking a step back in some areas. Kepler's struggles against lefties grew significantly worse (just a .453 OPS) and he was benched frequently against southpaws. Still, Kepler draws walks at a decent clip, has good power and makes strong contact for a player of his ilk. He also has enough speed to play center field in a pinch and is 12-for-15 as a base stealer in the majors. Entering his age-25 season, he could still take a leap, as there is room for growth in the power department. The danger is that his struggles against lefties eventually relegate him to a strict platoon.

Kepler was called up in June and took over the everyday right field role, displaying a surge in power (17 home runs, including a three-homer game) that he hadn't shown in the minors. His growth in power shouldn't be unexpected since he was just 23 years old and may have a delayed development cycle since he started playing baseball late in his native Germany. Kepler draws walks at a good clip, made strong contact in the minors and has some speed on the basepaths. He has some areas to improve as he struggled against left-handed pitching (.595 OPS), had more strikeouts initially in the majors than his minor league track record would suggest and wore down in the final month (.538 OPS in September). He also struggled at times in right field despite good reviews of his defense in the minors. However, he should be set as an everyday outfielder for the Twins and could improve rapidly in his first full season in the majors.

Kepler had a breakout season last year at Double-A and could be in position to win a starting outfield role with the Twins as early as this spring. After failing to make an impression the previous two seasons, he finally put it all together at age 22 by hitting .322/.416/.531 with 18 stolen bases at Double-A. Kepler may have a later development cycle since he started playing baseball late in his native Germany. His growth was on display across the board as he draws walks at a good clip, makes strong contact, and developed increasing power (13 triples). Kepler is seen as a solid defensive outfielder at all three positions and has even played first base. The Twins could opt to send him down to Triple-A to begin the season, but he should see a significant amount of time in Minnesota in 2016.

Kepler had another lackluster season in the minors and even though he may develop later than other players after being signed out of Germany, he'll need to show something in 2015 to remain a top prospect in the Minnesota system. There were some signs of hope as he hit much better the final two months at High-A (.303 batting average) and had a strong Arizona Fall League campaign by hitting .307/.366/.440. He's shown a good eye at the plate as he draws walks, makes contact and scouts believe he'll add power, but he'll need to finally put it all together at Double-A to be in Minnesota's long-term plans.

A strained left elbow cost Kepler the first two and a half months of the 2013 season, and he went on to hit just .237/.312/.424 in 61 games at Low-A Cedar Rapids. He then wasn't impressive in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .234/.306/.313. Still, it's too early to write him off as he has shown good place discipline (drawing walks in 9.1 percent of place appearances last season) and since he may develop later than other players after being signed out of Germany. He'll need to improve in 2014 and show he can stay healthy to maintain his top prospect status.

Kepler was an extremely athletic but very raw player when signed out of Germany in 2009. He started to add baseball skills to his athleticism last year as he hit .297/.387/.539 in rookie ball. He drew walks at a good rate (10 percent of plate appearances) and made great contact (33:27 BB:K). A strong year in his first full season league in 2013 could push him near the top of Minnesota's hitting prospects.

More Fantasy News

Rejoins lineup Thursday

OFMinnesota Twins

May 5, 2022

Kepler (illness) is starting in right field and batting cleanup Thursday against the Orioles.

ANALYSIS
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Not starting Wednesday

OFMinnesota Twins

Illness

May 4, 2022

Kepler (illness) isn't starting Wednesday against the Orioles.

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Exits with illness

OFMinnesota Twins

Illness

May 3, 2022

Kepler was removed from Tuesday's 7-2 win over the Orioles since he was feeling under the weather, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.

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Slugs fifth homer

OFMinnesota Twins

May 1, 2022

Kepler went 2-for-2 with a home run and three RBI in Saturday's 9-1 win over the Rays.

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Not starting Saturday

OFMinnesota Twins

April 30, 2022

Kepler isn't starting Saturday's game against the Rays, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.

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