Joc Pederson News

Joc Pederson

29-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Atlanta Braves

2021 Stats

AVG

.231

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2021 Fantasy Outlook

Pederson's one-dimensional skill set and strict platoon role has long hampered his fantasy value, and a drop in both his home-run output and on-base numbers resulted in the left-handed hitter ending last season on the waiver wire in a majority of standard mixed leagues. Pederson continued to hit the ball hard -- his 93.0 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 96th percentile -- but a 9.2-point jump in his groundball rate (to a career-high 51.7%) resulted in fewer balls leaving the park. Once among baseball's most patient batters, Pederson has taken fewer walks in recent campaigns, culminating in a career-low 8.0 BB% and .285 OBP last season. Pederson could get more regular playing time and face more lefties after signing with the Cubs. His power potential is tantalizing, but he needs to show he's more than a platoon player with a limited skill set. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#264

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 220

DOB 4/21/1992

Born Palo Alto, CA

College None

Drafted 11th Rd 2010 LAD

Sits versus righty again

OFAtlanta Braves

September 15, 2021

Pederson is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Rockies.

ANALYSIS
For the second consecutive day, Pederson will take a seat versus a right-handed pitcher (Antonio Senzatela), after he was on the bench in Tuesday's 5-4 loss while righty Jon Gray was on the bump for Colorado. Dating back to the start of August, Pederson is slashing an underwhelming .184/.294/.322, and his ongoing struggles appear to have cost him his strong-side platoon role in the outfield. Eddie Rosario will draw a third consecutive start in left field and looks to have supplanted Pederson on the depth chart.

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Batting Stats

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2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2019

+25%

OPS vs RHP

2021

+3%

OPS vs LHP

2020

+37%

OPS vs RHP

2019

+82%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2019vs Left	.647	170	15	2	18	0	.252	.312	.335
Since 2019vs Right	.806	941	137	57	130	4	.231	.318	.489
2021vs Left	.726	112	9	2	17	0	.265	.348	.378
2021vs Right	.703	351	41	14	41	2	.222	.291	.413
2020vs Left	.500	8	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250
2020vs Right	.683	126	19	7	16	1	.180	.278	.405
2019vs Left	.505	50	6	0	1	0	.224	.240	.265
2019vs Right	.920	464	77	36	73	1	.252	.349	.571
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2019

+13%

OPS at Home

2021

Even Split

2020

+22%

OPS on Road

2019

+34%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2019Home	.829	561	83	32	84	1	.246	.340	.489
Since 2019Away	.735	553	71	27	64	3	.223	.295	.441
2021Home	.708	232	27	6	33	0	.241	.323	.384
2021Away	.710	231	23	10	25	2	.224	.286	.424
2020Home	.621	82	11	2	5	1	.188	.317	.304
2020Away	.756	55	10	5	11	0	.192	.236	.519
2019Home	1.011	247	45	24	46	0	.270	.364	.647
2019Away	.753	267	38	12	28	1	.230	.315	.438
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Stat Review

How does Joc Pederson compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

BB/K

0.33

BB Rate

8.0%

K Rate

24.5%

BABIP

.275

ISO

.173

AVG

.231

OBP

.304

SLG

.404

OPS

.708

wOBA

.313

Exit Velocity

82.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

34.8%

Barrels/PA

8.3%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

The Dodgers gave Pederson just 162 plate appearances against left-handers over the past three seasons. A trade to the Angels fell through in February, and the Dodgers are saying he will remain with the team, so expect Pederson to remain in a strict platoon role. With the new rules governing pitcher usage, Pederson stands to benefit a little bit as opposing managers will be reluctant to bring in a LOOGY with fewer than two outs. Pederson set a personal best with 36 homers, benefiting from the added-flight ball. His average exit velocity and launch angle were virtually the same as the prior year, but his average flyball distance was up seven feet, in line with the projected 5-to-10 feet of added distance from the reduction in drag. The caution is Pederson stands to suffer if MLB reverts to the 2018 version of the baseball. Assuming more is known about the ball in the spring, Pederson could be a target if it doesn't change, or potentially someone to avoid with the old ball.

Pederson enjoyed an offensive resurgence in 2018 after a disappointing 2017 season. The resurgence came from his power as he re-worked his swing to get more loft in his game. He improved his average launch angle from 10 degrees to 15 degrees year over year, while maintaining an already-solid exit velocity. The Dodgers do a good job of limiting Pederson's exposure to lefties since he has proven he can do little with them. The overall offensive rebound came from Pederson simply repeating what he did in 2016 against righties. The issue for him is that he has yet to put together back-to-back seasons of good production against righties. He has 20 or more home runs in three of the past four seasons against righties, but the .209, .269, .214, and .260 averages the past four seasons push or pull down his fantasy value in standard leagues. In OBP leagues, he still gets it done rather well.

2017 was an up-and-down year for Pederson. The outfielder hit .241/.361/.466 with nine homers in the first half before a .156/.253/.312 start to the second half led to his demotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City in the middle of August. His struggles continued for the remainder of the regular season (at Triple-A and with the Dodgers), and he finished out the second half with a .162/.278/.303 line in 43 games. Pederson turned things around in the postseason, however, hitting .304/.360/.826 with three homers in the final two series after being left off the NLDS roster. Most of his opportunities came against right-handed pitching last season due to his struggles against same-handed pitching, and given the depth that the Dodgers possess in the outfield, it's hard to see that changing in 2018. Still, he's a solid source of power late in drafts and is even more intriguing in leagues where OBP is used in place of batting average.

Plenty of questions awaited Pederson going into 2016, as the young outfielder had walked and homered his way into the 2015 All-Star Game, then struggled mightily in the second half. He acquitted himself well during his 2016 campaign, improving his contact rate from 66.7 percent to 75 percent. The latter figure is still below league average, but the Dodgers will certainly take it when bundled with Pederson's raw power. The improved contact led to fewer walks, but the extra hits made the change a net positive to his on-base percentage, along with improvements to batting average and slugging percentage. The Dodgers limited his exposure to lefties, as 399 of his 476 plate appearances came against right-handers. They could continue to do so in 2017, by platooning him with Trayce Thompson or Enrique Hernandez. Still, Pederson's power still gives him significant value, especially in leagues that use OBP in place of batting average.

A strong spring training both at the plate and in the field elevated Pederson to be the team's Opening Day center fielder, and he quickly rewarded the organization's confidence. Pederson hit .230/.364/.487 with 20 home runs before making the NL All-Star team and battling Todd Frazier in the Home Run Derby finals. From there Pederson hit just .178/.317/.300 with six homers after the break, ultimately losing playing time to Enrique Hernandez late in the season. Pederson has earned some Adam Dunn comparisons for his power as well as his propensity to take a walk (15.7-percent BB rate) and strike out (29.1 percent). He is unlikely to ever hit .300 given the strikeouts, but the power is real and he should show improvement in his sophomore campaign. Pederson should head to camp as the starting center fielder, but given his dismal second half, he's not a lock to keep the job through another prolonged slump.

The Dodgers' outfield depth kept Pederson at Triple-A for the bulk of 2014, even though he seemed ready to contribute at the big league level. Of some concern is that he struck out 26.9% of the time at Albuquerque, but Pederson has a good eye at the plate (100 walks, 18.1% BB%) and the combination of power and speed necessary to become a five-category star. He also showed significant improvement against lefties with the move from Double-A to Triple-A, striking out less against lefties than righties last season and posting a very similar batted ball profile in each split. Reaching the 30-30 plateau for the first time in his professional career at Triple-A, Pederson has nothing left to prove in the minors and should be on track to start in center field for the Dodgers on Opening Day.

Pederson solidified his status as arguably the organization's top position prospect, batting .278/.381/.497 for Double-A Chattanooga. That line included 22 home runs and 31 stolen bases to go with 70 walks. Pederson was considered for a 2013 callup at times, but his big league debut will instead likely come in 2014. The Dodgers have a crowded outfield, but Pederson's ability to play center field should get him a look at some point this season, a timetable that could move up if the front office finds a taker for one of the team's high-priced veterans currently on the roster.

Pederson was named the organization's 2012 minor league player of the year, as he broke out with a .313/.396/.516 performance for High-A Rancho Cucamonga. Pederson homered 18 times and stole 26 bases all while playing the entire year at age 20. The true test will come this year as Pederson makes the jump out of a hitter-friendly environment to Double-A where the pitching will be far more advanced. How he handles himself at the plate in 2013 will go a long way toward determining how we think about him long term, but 2012 was a step in the right direction.

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