Marcell Ozuna
Marcell Ozuna
30-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Atlanta Braves
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Ozuna signed a pillow contract with Atlanta once the free-agent market dried up for him last winter, and if not for his own teammate in Atlanta, Ozuna could very well have been the 2020 NL MVP. Ozuna had exactly the type of season a pending free agent wants to have as he was an absolute monster in the middle of the Atlanta lineup setting career highs in walk rate, batting average, OBP, SLG, ISO, and exit velocity. His Statcast measures for what happened when he made contact were all within the top 6% of the league in 2020. Now comes the challenge of which team is going to pony up the cash to sign this impact bat. The power plays anywhere; a universal DH would open up suitors considerably because he is a liability if he has to be in the field everyday. He was a 2020 bargain, but he likely won't slide past the fourth round in 2021. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#44
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $64 million contract with the Braves in February of 2021. Contract includes $16 million team option ($1 million buyout) for 2025.
Goes long in loss
OFAtlanta Braves
May 12, 2021
Ozuna went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Tuesday's 5-3 loss to the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
Ozuna had a rough outing at the plate Tuesday night with three strikeouts but his bat did come alive in the sixth when he momentarily gave the Braves the lead with a solo home run to left. The 30-year-old has still not really figured out his swing so far, as he's slashing .203/.276/.333 with five home runs, 21 RBI and 13 runs scored to go along with a 13:36 BB:K. He has been making better contact lately but it's still been a majorly disappointing start to the year after an incredible offensive showing during the abbreviated 2020 campaign.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
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2017
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
19
9
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
7
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
Even Split
2021
 
 
+70%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+33%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .842 179 28 14 41 0 .233 .302 .540
Since 2019vs Right .842 793 103 38 125 12 .269 .359 .483
2021vs Left .396 36 3 1 2 0 .114 .139 .257
2021vs Right .672 120 10 4 19 0 .234 .317 .355
2020vs Left 1.330 54 11 7 19 0 .356 .463 .867
2020vs Right 1.002 213 27 11 37 0 .333 .423 .579
2019vs Left .752 89 14 6 20 0 .217 .270 .482
2019vs Right .814 460 66 23 69 12 .249 .341 .473
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+5%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+5%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+7%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .822 490 66 24 79 6 .259 .349 .473
Since 2019Away .854 478 64 27 86 6 .263 .347 .507
2021Home .592 83 8 4 8 0 .182 .241 .351
2021Away .623 73 5 1 13 0 .231 .315 .308
2020Home 1.082 128 21 7 22 0 .358 .469 .613
2020Away 1.028 135 16 10 33 0 .314 .393 .636
2019Home .777 279 37 13 49 6 .240 .326 .451
2019Away .831 270 43 16 40 6 .247 .333 .498
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Stat Review
How does Marcell Ozuna compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.35
 
BB Rate
8.3%
 
K Rate
23.7%
 
BABIP
.240
 
ISO
.127
 
AVG
.204
 
OBP
.276
 
SLG
.331
 
OPS
.607
 
wOBA
.274
 
Exit Velocity
84.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
26.7%
 
Barrels/PA
7.2%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Marcell Ozuna
FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Targets
Yesterday
Kevin Payne looks over Wednesday's slate and recommends an Atlanta stack topped by Ronald Acuna against Hyun Jin Ryu.
FanDuel MLB: Saturday Targets
5 days ago
With a plethora of offensive choices in tonight's seven-game slate, Chris Bennett likes Carson Kelly against the Mets.
The Z Files: Early Season Power Targets
5 days ago
Todd Zola takes a look at early-season data on average flyball exit velocity and distance and thinks there is a power surge in C.J. Cron's future.
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Christopher Olson likes Ian Anderson's matchup at home against the Phillies.
FanDuel MLB: Friday Targets
6 days ago
Chris Bennett checks in with his best recommendations for a whopping 14-game Friday slate, turning to veteran Twins slugger Nelson Cruz against Detroit.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Chances are, 2017 will always be the outlier for Ozuna. He slugged 37 homers that year and ranked as the 13th-best rate contributor in the game by wRC+ (143). He has largely underperformed in the three seasons around 2017, with wRC+ marks ranging from 107 to 110 despite elite batted-ball numbers. His BA dipped close to 40 points in his second season with the Cardinals, though his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both ranked within the top 7% of the league. His xBA was .288. Ozuna walked at a career-best clip (11.3%) and ran more than he ever had in the majors, stealing 12 bases in 14 attempts. Even with the uptick in walks, Ozuna still lags a little bit in the OBP department, and his defense is shaky at times, but the 29-year-old will continue to play every day after signing a one-year deal with Atlanta and will see a significant boost in park factors. A return to $20 hitter status is entirely possible.
Compared to former outfield mates Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton, Ozuna didn't make as much of a splash in his first year outside Miami. Ozuna eventually found his swing after a slow start to his Cardinals career, slashing .299/.346/.482 with 20 home runs from May 21 onward. It still marked a step back from the .924 OPS and 37 long balls he supplied in 2017, though regression was always coming after he needed a 23.4% HR/FB -- nearly nine points above his career rate -- to achieve that production. Moreover, Ozuna battled a sore right shoulder for a good portion of the second half that later required offseason arthroscopic surgery, further explaining the power downturn on some level. There's always a risk that such a procedure continues to sap his slugging output, but the improved contact skills Ozuna has displayed the last few years coupled with his guaranteed spot in the heart of the order give him a fairly dependable four-category floor.
Ozuna had shown flashes of greatness in the past, but few could have predicted his monster 2017. As a 25-year-old, Ozuna exceeded his home-run total from the previous two seasons combined while adding nearly 50 points to his batting average. He finished with a 142 wRC+ (15th among qualified hitters) and .388 wOBA, and the numbers from Statcast were generally encouraging; Ozuna had a .357 xwOBA and 90.7 mph average exit velocity, which ranked 15th among 237 players with at least 250 at-bats. He added to his walk rate, boosting it to a career-high 9.4 percent, but his BABIP was slightly inflated at .355 and it's possible Ozuna's average will settle closer to the .270s in the years to come. A .270 batter with 30-plus homers and 100 RBI isn't as rare as it used to be, but it's still plenty valuable. With Ozuna leaving Miami for St. Louis in a December trade, we feel even better about his chances for another $20-plus season.
Ozuna rebounded from a disappointing 2015 campaign to essentially match his breakout 2014 season, showing latent skills growth in the process. The 26-year-old's future is back on the upswing. He walked more and whiffed significantly less than in the previous season. It's the improved contact rate that's most intriguing. The only negative last season was a 20-point drop in BABIP for the second straight year. Assuming a great deal of that is variance, if Ozuna maintains most or all his contact gains, what looks to be a stable average in the .265 range could head north quickly with a BABIP reversion. While the power drop in 2015 can't be ignored, it can be discounted meaning there could be a buying opportunity if the market doesn't similarly adjust. Plus, Ozuna is lofting a few more flyballs away from challenging the 30-homer mark, and he's at an age where this often occurs. Don't hesitate to cast a line toward him.
The power Ozuna showed in 2014 dissipated in 2015, as he hit just 10 home runs in 494 plate appearances and saw his slugging percentage dip below .400 for the second time in three years. Ozuna’s performance was so poor that the Marlins stashed him in the minors for 33 games, likely in an extremely Marlins attempt to game his service time clock. Giving up on Ozuna at this point would be a grave overreaction, however; he was a 24-year-old playing in one of the most difficult parks for power hitters in the game’s recent history. Slumps will happen. Counting the minor leagues, Ozuna has four 20-homer seasons in the past six years, and he’s far too young to give up on. His strikeout rates are concerning — he has yet to post one below 19.6 percent — but if the power he showed in 2014 and in the minors resurfaces, everybody will forget all about that right quick.
A surprise offensive breakout player during his 2013 rookie campaign, Ozuna managed to sneak up on us once again in 2014 as he made significant strides in most every aspect of his game. The 24-year-old outfielder re-discovered the power stroke he displayed throughout the minors and socked 23 home runs to go along with 26 doubles and five triples while tallying 83 RBI over 153 games during his first full season in the majors. Ozuna continued to swing and miss with regularity (26.8 K%), but also showed a slight increase in walk rate (6.7% in 2014 compared to 4.5% as a rookie). He continues to provide steady defense in the outfield and has settled in as the full-time center fielder after the team tried to mix and match defensive alignments early on. Ozuna should be fully recover from the ankle injury that cost him the last two weeks in September by the time camp rolls around, and he'll enter the season with ample RBI opportunities while batting in the middle of the Marlins’ order.
Ozuna turned heads when he got the nod over some of the Marlins' more accomplished outfield prospects in late May and perhaps his presence on the 40-man roster played a role. Ozuna did, however, make the most of his opportunity, putting together a BABIP-fueled tear where he batted .336 over his first 33 games with the Marlins. More of a power prospect than a contact hitter -- Ozuna popped one home run every 20.9 at-bats in minors with a strikeout rate hovering around 20% -- it was no surprise to see his line dip to .265/.303/.389 before he was finally shut down with a thumb injury that required surgery in late July. Despite struggling during the end of his run in Miami, Ozuna gained some valuable experience as an everyday player, contributing solid defense in the outfield and showing the ability to handle right-handed pitching at the major league level. He is not quite of the Christian Yelich/Jake Marisnick ilk, but with a reduced strikeout rate, improved patience at the plate and some more authoritative contact, Ozuna could threaten 20 home runs annually as he hits his prime. Heading into the spring, Ozuna looks to be the favorite to earn the starting job in center field with Miami as he enters his sophomore season.
Ozuna spent his 2012 season at High-A Jupiter and followed up his fine season the previous year with more of the same. He continues to flash plus power, slugging 24 home runs over 489 at-bats last season while posting a strong .804 OPS. Ozuna has mashed 69 home runs over three minor league seasons and appears ready to take a jump to the next level in 2013. Though his 116 strikeouts in 129 games last season lend doubt to the notion that he will ever provide positive value in terms of batting average, his power is absolutely for real. Keeper league owners should invest now, as he'll likely spend his 2013 season at Double-A Jacksonville.
Ozuna is no Mike Stanton, but the 21-year-old has plus-power and began to develop other aspects of his game in 2011, upping his walk rate, cutting back on the strikeouts and stealing an impressive 17 bases in 19 attempts at Low-A. The plate discipline is still a work in progress, and Jupiter can be a tough place to hit so don't be shocked if his numbers at High-A take a bit of a tumble, but he's a legitimate prospect who would be among the best in the Marlins system even if it weren't depleted.
More Fantasy News
Slugs fourth homer
OFAtlanta Braves
May 5, 2021
Ozuna went 2-for-4 with a grand slam in Wednesday's 5-3 win over the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
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Homers again in loss
OFAtlanta Braves
April 29, 2021
Ozuna went 1-for-4 with a solo home run during Thursday's loss to the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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Mashes second homer
OFAtlanta Braves
April 29, 2021
Ozuna went 1-for-5 with a two-run home run in Wednesday's 10-0 rout of the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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Reaches base four times in win
OFAtlanta Braves
April 19, 2021
Ozuna went 2-for-4 with a pair of walks, two runs and an RBI in Sunday's 13-4 win over the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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Plates two runs in loss
OFAtlanta Braves
April 17, 2021
Ozuna went 1-for-3 with two RBI and a walk in Saturday's loss against the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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