Blake Snell
Blake Snell
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Tampa Bay Rays
2019 Fantasy Outlook
James Clear, in his book Atomic Habits, references The Plateau of Latent Potential. We expect all progress to be linear, and that it will come quickly. In reality, the results get delayed and we enter into the valley of disappointment. That aptly describes Snell from mid-2016 through the end of July 2017. For all the talent, the results were not there. Wise owners noticed changes Snell made over the final six weeks of the season and bought back in on Snell last season and were rewarded with a Cy Young-winning effort. Snell made outstanding gains across the board both statistically and his approach to the game, specifically his ability to command his pitches and throw non-fastballs for strikes early to force batters to chase pseudo-strikes later in the count. The ERA will regress, and the wins will come down given the Rays play in so many tight games, but Snell is now a staff ace. Read Past Outlooks
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Captures AL Cy Young
PTampa Bay Rays
November 14, 2018
Snell won the 2018 American League Cy Young Award on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
Despite pitching just 180.2 innings -- the fewest ever from a Cy Young Award-winning starting pitcher -- Snell narrowly beat out Justin Verlander to win the award for the first time in his career. The lefty put together an impressive breakout campaign in 2018, finishing with a league-best 21 wins (and just five losses), while posting a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 across 31 starts.
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Pitching Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-19%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-28%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .182 299 87 29 48 10 0 2
Since 2016vs Right .226 1349 351 145 270 60 4 34
2018vs Left .135 137 46 9 17 5 0 2
2018vs Right .188 563 175 55 95 22 1 14
2017vs Left .182 75 18 8 12 3 0 0
2017vs Right .243 472 101 51 101 23 2 15
2016vs Left .264 87 23 12 19 2 0 0
2016vs Right .270 314 75 39 74 15 1 5
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 2.38 1.13 200.1 18 8 0 10.1 3.6 0.8
Since 2016Away 3.53 1.34 198.2 14 12 0 9.6 4.3 0.8
2018Home 1.27 0.87 85.0 10 1 0 10.7 2.5 0.8
2018Away 2.45 1.07 95.2 11 4 0 11.3 3.8 0.8
2017Home 3.32 1.09 65.0 3 3 0 9.1 3.3 1.1
2017Away 4.76 1.57 64.1 2 4 0 7.4 4.9 1.0
2016Home 3.04 1.61 50.1 5 4 0 10.4 5.7 0.4
2016Away 4.19 1.63 38.2 1 4 0 9.3 4.4 0.7
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Stat Review
How does Blake Snell compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.45
 
K/9
11.0
 
BB/9
3.2
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
95.8 mph
 
ERA
1.89
 
WHIP
0.97
 
BABIP
.250
 
GB/FB
1.37
 
Strand %
86.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Blake Snell
The Z Files: Drafting a Pitching Staff
3 days ago
Todd Zola walks through how he assembles a fantasy pitching staff and explains why Max Scherzer is the only hurler to get a pre-draft plan named after him.
The Z Files: Early Market Disagreements Part Two
November 30th
Todd Zola looks at five players he's not willing to spend current market price on, including rising Rays ace Blake Snell.
The Z Files: Early Market Disagreements
November 23rd
Todd Zola takes another look at five players he's more bullish on than the market right now, and thinks a better season from the Arizona offense could help Paul Goldschmidt regain some of his luster.
Collette Calls: Does the Opener Strategy Work?
November 16th
Jason Collette analyzes 'The Opener' strategy and how it relates to the times-through-the-order penalty. Would it have benefited Robbie Ray?
The Z Files: Historical Top 200
November 10th
Todd Zola takes a look at the end-of-season top-200 performers over the last five years and thinks Charlie Blackmon's being discounted too heavily in early drafts given his track record.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Snell has mostly struggled so far at the highest level, failing to meet the hype as a former top prospect, but he made strides late in 2017 and may be on the verge of a breakout. The young left-hander shaved a full walk from his BB/9 from the previous season (to 4.1) and got sharper as the season wore on, posting a 2.9 BB/9 in the second half. Meanwhile, Snell added to his strikeout percentage in each of the season's final three months, finishing with a 26.5-percent mark in September, while also trimming his HR/9 from 1.21 to 0.93 from the first half to the second half. It's not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with fastball command like Snell did with the jump to the big leagues; Snell seems to have regained his trust in the pitch, but continuing to locate well will be critical to his success moving forward. With plenty of owners disappointed by his struggles last season, Snell's second-half improvement may not be baked into his price on draft day.
Snell's eagerly anticipated major league debut was by and large a successful one. The young southpaw posted five quality starts overall but was also lifted before the fourth inning on five occasions, a perfect example of the inconsistencies a rookie pitcher can often display, regardless of their talent level. The one major blemish that Snell carried over from the minors was an issue with control, as he posted a bloated 5.2 BB/9 and 1.62 WHIP at the big league level. He was as stingy as ever with the long ball, however, generating a minuscule 0.5 HR/9 that essentially mirrored or represented an improvement on his figure in that category at his various minor league stops. With a full offseason to prepare for the grind of a major league campaign, Snell could take a formidable leap forward in 2017 and has plenty of proven strikeout upside, having tallied a double-digit K/9 from High-A to Triple-A. Control will presumably still be an issue for the time being, but the talented southpaw still has plenty to offer in several other fantasy categories.
There aren’t enough superlatives to describe Snell’s 2015 season. Across three levels, the lefty went 15-4 with a 1.41 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and struck out 163 batters in 134 innings and seemed to look better with each level. At Triple-A Durham, he went 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and struck out 57 batter while allowing 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work. That type of resume would normally be a lock for a job in a rotation the next season, but he pitches for Tampa Bay. Like Hellickson and Price before him, he’ll return to Durham for (insert made up BS reason here) until arbitrary Super 2 date passes. The Rays have a set rotation of Archer, Smyly, Odorizzi, Moore, and Ramirez as the roster stands now even after dealing Karns, so they do at least have a legit reason to send him back to the minors. Unless there is a trade or an injury, don’t look for him sometime in June, at the earliest.
It is said that lefties take a bit longer to develop, especially with their command. That may be the case for Snell. He pitched at two levels last season and struck out 119 batters in 115.2 innings of work while permitting just 95 hits and two home runs. He also walked 56 batters, including 37 in just 75 innings of work in High-A ball. He throws in the low 90s and the team really likes his changeup, which is a required pitch to move up in the organization. He will likely report to Double-A Montgomery in 2015 and should be watched to see how his progression continues.
Snell put together a successful first year in full-season baseball with Low-A Bowling Green. In 23 starts, he went 4-9 with a 4.27 ERA and had 106 strikeouts in 99 innings. A tall left-hander, he features a big fastball that can hover in the mid-90s. A 2011 draft selection out of high school, the Rays have brought Snell along slowly to build up his innings and preserve his arm. He had a very high walk rate of 6.6 BB/9 in 2013, which can be expected of most young pitchers. He features an interesting set of pitches and is expected to develop those and continue to work as a starter. He will likely start 2014 with High-A Charlotte, as he makes a bid to surpass 100 innings for the first time in his professional career.
More Fantasy News
Dazzles in finale of Cy-caliber season
PTampa Bay Rays
September 29, 2018
Snell gave up one run in five innings Saturday, giving up three hits while striking out 10 and walking four in the Rays' 4-3 win, but he didn't factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Wins ninth straight start
PTampa Bay Rays
September 23, 2018
Snell (21-5) allowed no runs on three hits and two walks over 6.2 innings while recording the win over the Blue Jays on Sunday. He struck out 11.
ANALYSIS
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Gets 20th win, 200th strikeout
PTampa Bay Rays
September 19, 2018
Snell (20-5) allowed one hit in five scoreless innings in a win over the Rangers on Tuesday, striking out five and walking two.
ANALYSIS
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Carries no-hitter into seventh, claims 19th win
PTampa Bay Rays
September 12, 2018
Snell (19-5) picked up the win Wednesday against the Indians, allowing one run on one hit and two walks while striking out nine across seven innings.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine for 18th win
PTampa Bay Rays
September 8, 2018
Snell (18-5) picked up the win in Friday's 14-2 rout of the Orioles, allowing two runs on five hits over 5.1 innings while striking out nine.
ANALYSIS
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