Blake Snell
Blake Snell
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Snell's 2020 will always be remembered for how it ended. He was quite good during his time on the mound, posting a 3.16 ERA and 100:32 K:BB over 79.2 innings (postseason included). The long ball was a problem; Snell served up 15 HR in total. His HR/FB during the regular season was all the way up at 29.4% after he was consistently in the 10-15% range the three seasons prior. Eight of the 10 homers he allowed during the regular season were against the fastball, leading to an ugly .326 BA and .663 SLG against the pitch, but we're talking about a sample of 50 innings with those stats. Snell's curveball remains a great put-away pitch and he's still just a few years removed from winning the Cy Young pitching in a brutal AL East. The trade from Tampa Bay to San Diego looks like a net positive as Snell will be pitching for another good team and may be allowed to go deeper into games, in theory padding wins and Ks. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#46
ADP
$Signed a five-year, $50 million contract extension with the Rays in March of 2019. Traded to the Padres in December of 2020.
Fans eight in win
PSan Diego Padres
July 22, 2021
Snell (4-3) allowed a run on three hits and three walks while striking out eight in six-plus innings to earn the win Thursday over Miami.
ANALYSIS
The 28-year-old completed six innings for just the third time in 18 starts this year. In his three longest starts, he's allowed a combined two runs. Snell was on the hook for one of Miami's two runs in the seventh inning, but he got a well-earned win Thursday. Overall, he's struggled to a 4.93 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 104:51 K:BB through 80.1 innings this season. He continues to walk batters at an alarming rate of 5.7 BB/9, which has led to shorter outings due to high pitch counts. Snell projects to make his next start at home versus Oakland next week.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
84
Last 10 Games
85
Last 5 Games
84
How many pitches does Blake Snell generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Blake Snell generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
Even Split
2021
 
 
-38%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-33%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .238 202 77 12 45 12 0 7
Since 2019vs Right .238 805 237 97 167 34 1 28
2021vs Left .164 81 33 7 12 5 0 1
2021vs Right .265 282 71 44 62 16 1 10
2020vs Left .217 47 20 1 10 2 0 3
2020vs Right .232 156 43 17 32 5 0 7
2019vs Left .329 74 24 4 23 5 0 3
2019vs Right .222 367 123 36 73 13 0 11
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-61%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-82%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-31%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-50%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 2.35 1.13 114.2 8 4 0 13.0 3.6 0.9
Since 2019Away 6.09 1.57 122.2 6 9 0 10.9 4.6 1.7
2021Home 1.43 1.04 37.2 3 0 0 13.1 3.8 0.7
2021Away 8.02 2.02 42.2 1 3 0 10.3 7.4 1.7
2020Home 2.57 1.33 21.0 1 1 0 13.7 4.3 0.9
2020Away 3.72 1.10 29.0 3 1 0 9.6 2.5 2.5
2019Home 2.89 1.11 56.0 4 3 0 12.5 3.2 1.1
2019Away 5.82 1.45 51.0 2 5 0 12.2 3.5 1.2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Blake Snell compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.04
 
K/9
11.7
 
BB/9
5.7
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
95.3 mph
 
ERA
4.93
 
WHIP
1.56
 
BABIP
.340
 
GB/FB
1.53
 
Left On Base
73.0%
 
Exit Velocity
82.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.4%
 
Spin Rate
2313 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
25.7%
 
Swinging Strike
11.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Blake Snell
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3 days ago
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5 days ago
Brad Johnson writes about the Futures Game, where promising young pitchers like the Rays’ Shane Baz were showcased, and Johnson provides a brief update on a handful injured pitchers.
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5 days ago
Kevin Payne looks over Thursday's slate and recommends a Red Sox stack headlined by J.D. Martinez as they host the Yankees.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Giants Steps
10 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching, and the Giants' Kevin Gausman is on top with two starts.
DraftKings MLB: Saturday Breakdown
10 days ago
Christopher Olson is endorsing a San Diego stack against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Regression was expected for the 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner as Snell's 1.89 ERA was lower than his 3.16 xFIP and 3.30 SIERA. Sure enough, his 4.29 ERA last year was significantly higher than the 3.31 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA. In terms of skills, Snell was essentially the same pitcher he was the year he took home the hardware. Perhaps if Snell didn't miss about two months after surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow, his ERA would have corrected, but it didn't have the chance. The encouraging news is that when Snell returned in September, his velocity was just a tick below normal, so he should be 100% heading into 2020. The only blemish is a high walk rate, resulting in an elevated WHIP. However, a strikeout rate north of 30% helps mitigate the impact. Snell may fall a couple dozen innings short of the elite, but he's still a fantasy ace. Invest with confidence.
James Clear, in his book Atomic Habits, references The Plateau of Latent Potential. We expect all progress to be linear, and that it will come quickly. In reality, the results get delayed and we enter into the valley of disappointment. That aptly describes Snell from mid-2016 through the end of July 2017. For all the talent, the results were not there. Wise owners noticed changes Snell made over the final six weeks of the season and bought back in on Snell last season and were rewarded with a Cy Young-winning effort. Snell made outstanding gains across the board, both statistically and in his approach to the game, specifically his ability to command his pitches and throw non-fastballs for strikes early to force batters to chase pseudo-strikes later in the count. The ERA will regress, and the wins will come down, but Snell is now a staff ace.
Snell has mostly struggled so far at the highest level, failing to meet the hype as a former top prospect, but he made strides late in 2017 and may be on the verge of a breakout. The young left-hander shaved a full walk from his BB/9 from the previous season (to 4.1) and got sharper as the season wore on, posting a 2.9 BB/9 in the second half. Meanwhile, Snell added to his strikeout percentage in each of the season's final three months, finishing with a 26.5-percent mark in September, while also trimming his HR/9 from 1.21 to 0.93 from the first half to the second half. It's not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with fastball command like Snell did with the jump to the big leagues; Snell seems to have regained his trust in the pitch, but continuing to locate well will be critical to his success moving forward. With plenty of owners disappointed by his struggles last season, Snell's second-half improvement may not be baked into his price on draft day.
Snell's eagerly anticipated major league debut was by and large a successful one. The young southpaw posted five quality starts overall but was also lifted before the fourth inning on five occasions, a perfect example of the inconsistencies a rookie pitcher can often display, regardless of their talent level. The one major blemish that Snell carried over from the minors was an issue with control, as he posted a bloated 5.2 BB/9 and 1.62 WHIP at the big league level. He was as stingy as ever with the long ball, however, generating a minuscule 0.5 HR/9 that essentially mirrored or represented an improvement on his figure in that category at his various minor league stops. With a full offseason to prepare for the grind of a major league campaign, Snell could take a formidable leap forward in 2017 and has plenty of proven strikeout upside, having tallied a double-digit K/9 from High-A to Triple-A. Control will presumably still be an issue for the time being, but the talented southpaw still has plenty to offer in several other fantasy categories.
There aren’t enough superlatives to describe Snell’s 2015 season. Across three levels, the lefty went 15-4 with a 1.41 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and struck out 163 batters in 134 innings and seemed to look better with each level. At Triple-A Durham, he went 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and struck out 57 batter while allowing 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work. That type of resume would normally be a lock for a job in a rotation the next season, but he pitches for Tampa Bay. Like Hellickson and Price before him, he’ll return to Durham for (insert made up BS reason here) until arbitrary Super 2 date passes. The Rays have a set rotation of Archer, Smyly, Odorizzi, Moore, and Ramirez as the roster stands now even after dealing Karns, so they do at least have a legit reason to send him back to the minors. Unless there is a trade or an injury, don’t look for him sometime in June, at the earliest.
It is said that lefties take a bit longer to develop, especially with their command. That may be the case for Snell. He pitched at two levels last season and struck out 119 batters in 115.2 innings of work while permitting just 95 hits and two home runs. He also walked 56 batters, including 37 in just 75 innings of work in High-A ball. He throws in the low 90s and the team really likes his changeup, which is a required pitch to move up in the organization. He will likely report to Double-A Montgomery in 2015 and should be watched to see how his progression continues.
Snell put together a successful first year in full-season baseball with Low-A Bowling Green. In 23 starts, he went 4-9 with a 4.27 ERA and had 106 strikeouts in 99 innings. A tall left-hander, he features a big fastball that can hover in the mid-90s. A 2011 draft selection out of high school, the Rays have brought Snell along slowly to build up his innings and preserve his arm. He had a very high walk rate of 6.6 BB/9 in 2013, which can be expected of most young pitchers. He features an interesting set of pitches and is expected to develop those and continue to work as a starter. He will likely start 2014 with High-A Charlotte, as he makes a bid to surpass 100 innings for the first time in his professional career.
More Fantasy News
Struggles again Saturday
PSan Diego Padres
July 18, 2021
Snell pitched four innings against Washington on Saturday, allowing four runs on six hits and four walks while striking out three. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Activated ahead of start
PSan Diego Padres
July 17, 2021
Snell (illness) was activated from the injured list as expected Saturday ahead of his scheduled start against Washington.
ANALYSIS
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Confirmed as Saturday's starter
PSan Diego Padres
Illness
July 16, 2021
Snell (illness) has been confirmed as the probable starting pitcher for Saturday's game against Washington, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Likely to start next weekend
PSan Diego Padres
Illness
July 11, 2021
The Padres are planning on Snell (illness) returning from the injured list next weekend to start Saturday's game against the Nationals, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
ANALYSIS
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Placed on injured list
PSan Diego Padres
Illness
July 9, 2021
Snell was placed on the 10-day injured list Friday with gastroenteritis, retroactive to July 6.
ANALYSIS
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