Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin
24-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Eflin entered 2018 offering little reason for optimism, having recorded ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16 (with similarly ugly FIPs) in two 11-start cameos in the majors. He had shown good control, walking just 5.3% of batters, but hadn’t shown any ability to put hitters away, recording just a 12.0% strikeout rate. In 2018, however, he was a new man. Thanks in part to a fastball which jumped from 92.7 mph to 94.3 mph, he suddenly had the ability to strike batters out, managing a league-average 22.5% strikeout rate in 24 starts. Combined with a walk rate that took just a small step back (to 6.8%), he finished with a solid enough 4.36 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, suggesting room for even more improvement. His spot in the rotation going forward isn’t guaranteed, as Jerad Eickhoff should be healthy this season and the Phillies could bring in more competition in the offseason, but Eflin should remain a competent (if unexciting) option if given the chance. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year contract with the Phillies in March of 2018.
Dealing with strained oblique
PPhiladelphia Phillies
Oblique
September 26, 2018
Manager Gabe Kapler said Wednesday that Eflin has a strained left oblique and will not start against the Braves this weekend, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Due to this injury, it's highly unlikely that Eflin will be available out of the bullpen for the club's three-game set versus Atlanta this weekend. In 24 starts with the Phillies in 2018, Eflin logged a 4.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with a 123:37 K:BB in 128 innings. Jerad Eickhoff will take the mound for Friday's series opener in his absence.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-12%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .293 542 87 39 144 30 4 29
Since 2016vs Right .258 558 102 27 132 35 2 15
2018vs Left .286 249 57 21 64 16 2 9
2018vs Right .240 299 66 16 66 18 0 7
2017vs Left .306 161 21 9 45 7 0 11
2017vs Right .312 119 14 3 34 7 0 5
2016vs Left .289 132 9 9 35 7 2 9
2016vs Right .250 140 22 8 32 10 2 3
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-41%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-24%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-35%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 4.38 1.22 125.1 9 8 0 7.6 2.2 1.7
Since 2016Away 5.80 1.45 130.1 6 10 0 5.7 2.5 1.4
2018Home 3.33 1.19 70.1 8 3 0 9.1 2.6 1.2
2018Away 5.62 1.44 57.2 3 5 0 8.1 2.7 1.1
2017Home 7.06 1.43 29.1 0 3 0 6.1 1.2 3.4
2017Away 5.40 1.40 35.0 1 2 0 3.9 2.1 1.3
2016Home 4.21 1.05 25.2 1 2 0 5.3 2.1 1.4
2016Away 6.45 1.51 37.2 2 3 0 3.8 2.6 1.9
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Stat Review
How does Zach Eflin compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.32
 
K/9
8.6
 
BB/9
2.6
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
94.3 mph
 
ERA
4.36
 
WHIP
1.30
 
BABIP
.324
 
GB/FB
1.21
 
Strand %
69.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Zach Eflin
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9 days ago
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152 days ago
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152 days ago
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Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Season Finale
154 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2015
2014
Eflin continued to struggle in his second year in the majors. He followed up his 5.54 ERA in 2016 with a 6.16 ERA last season, and the high number was well-deserved. He posted a K/9 of just 4.9, well below the major-league average. He did manage a solid walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and an average groundball rate (44.1 percent), but it's hard to succeed as a starter in the big leagues without missing bats. Eflin battled injuries in each of the past two seasons, but he's still just 23 years old, so it's too early to write him off completely. The Phillies remain short on quality starting pitching, so Eflin will likely be given another chance to earn a rotation spot in 2018, but will have to show considerable improvement to stick around with the big-league club.
Eflin entered last season with minimal expectations after his strikeout rate dropped to 4.7 K/9 at Double-A Reading in 2015. He got off to a great start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, thanks in part to a spike in his strikeout rate which Eflin attributed to better command of his fastball along with learning to set hitters up. That improvement earned him a shot with the Phillies in June. Eflin was terrible in his first start, but settled in after that, going 2-3 with a 2.08 ERA over his next seven starts before things went south in his final three appearances. He was placed on the disabled list in early-August with patellar tendinopathy in his knees, a condition he has dealt with since he was a child, along with a fractured foot. It is possible the injuries had some impact on his struggles over his final three starts. Eflin had surgery on both of his knees toward the end of last season and is expected to be ready for spring training. He will need another spike in his strikeout rate to inspire confidence as he managed just a 4.4 K/9 in the majors last season. It may require him to develop another one of his pitches to go with his slider, as both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs were quite hittable last season.
Eflin completed the second full season of his professional career as a 20-year-old at High-A Lake Elsinore, where he fared well against much older competition. His greatest skills growth came in his ability to get opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground more consistently, as he posted a 1.67 GO/AO mark after showing flyball tendencies (0.76 GO/AO) in the Midwest League in 2013. At 6-foot-4, there is still projection remaining for Eflin, who typically works with a low-90s two-seam fastball, but has the ability to reach back and dial up his four-seamer to 97 mph. He also throws a good slider and an improving changeup, rounding out an arsenal that may eventually enable him to miss more bats. At the low end, he should develop into a steady innings eater, but he's very advanced for his age and could develop into a No. 3 starter. Traded to the Dodgers in December before being included in the package that sent Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles, Eflin will begin his first season in the Phillies' organization pitching in the rotation at Double-A.
After an atrocious April in which he faltered his way to a 6.06 ERA in four starts, Eflin settled in nicely, posting a 7-4 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74:23 K:BB ratio in 102.1 innings covering 18 starts. Don't be surprised if he takes the next step in his age-20 season by starting 2014 at High-A Lake Elsinore. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Eflin could make a quick ascent up the Padres' organizational prospect rankings if he fares well in the California League.
More Fantasy News
Likely done for season
PPhiladelphia Phillies
Side
September 24, 2018
Eflin will travel back to Philadelphia to have his left side examined, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine through five scoreless
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 19, 2018
Eflin (11-7) struck out nine batters across five scoreless innings to earn the win Wednesday against the Mets. He allowed three hits and issued three walks.
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Tosses quality outing vs. Marlins
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 14, 2018
Eflin (10-7) allowed one run on five hits and one walk while striking out four over 6.1 innings Friday, picking up the victory over Miami.
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Mauled by Mets
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 8, 2018
Eflin (9-7) took the loss Saturday, surrendering six runs on four hits and three walks over three innings while striking out five as the Phillies fell 10-5 to the Mets.
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Drops decision to Cubs
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 1, 2018
Eflin (9-6) took the loss Saturday, giving up four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk over five innings while striking out four as the Phillies fell 7-1 to the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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