Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Eflin entered 2018 offering little reason for optimism, having recorded ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16 (with similarly ugly FIPs) in two 11-start cameos in the majors. He had shown good control, walking just 5.3% of batters, but hadn’t shown any ability to put hitters away, recording just a 12.0% strikeout rate. In 2018, however, he was a new man. Thanks in part to a fastball which jumped from 92.7 mph to 94.3 mph, he suddenly had the ability to strike batters out, managing a league-average 22.5% strikeout rate in 24 starts. Combined with a walk rate that took just a small step back (to 6.8%), he finished with a solid enough 4.36 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, suggesting room for even more improvement. His spot in the rotation going forward isn’t guaranteed, as Jerad Eickhoff should be healthy this season and the Phillies could bring in more competition in the offseason, but Eflin should remain a competent (if unexciting) option if given the chance. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $590,000 contract with the Phillies in March of 2019.
Set to rejoin rotation
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 14, 2019
Eflin will start Saturday against the Padres, Todd Zolecki of reports.
Eflin was shifted to a relief role following the acquisition of Jason Vargas at the end of July, but he's set to reclaim his spot in the rotation with Jake Arrieta (elbow) headed to the injured list. Across 20 starts with the big club this season, the right-hander owns a 4.63 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 92:31 K:BB in 112.2 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .284 652 127 54 166 39 2 34
Since 2017vs Right .267 692 130 29 171 39 0 19
2019vs Left .268 242 49 24 57 16 0 14
2019vs Right .277 274 50 10 71 14 0 7
2018vs Left .286 249 57 21 64 16 2 9
2018vs Right .240 299 66 16 66 18 0 7
2017vs Left .306 161 21 9 45 7 0 11
2017vs Right .312 119 14 3 34 7 0 5
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
Since 2017Home 4.42 1.29 158.2 13 10 0 7.9 2.3 1.7
Since 2017Away 5.15 1.42 152.0 6 14 0 6.9 2.5 1.4
2019Home 4.42 1.32 59.0 5 4 0 7.5 2.6 1.5
2019Away 4.55 1.42 59.1 2 7 0 7.6 2.6 1.7
2018Home 3.33 1.19 70.1 8 3 0 9.1 2.6 1.2
2018Away 5.62 1.44 57.2 3 5 0 8.1 2.7 1.1
2017Home 7.06 1.43 29.1 0 3 0 6.1 1.2 3.4
2017Away 5.40 1.40 35.0 1 2 0 3.9 2.1 1.3
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Stat Review
How does Zach Eflin compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
93.6 mph
Left On Base
Exit Velocity
88.7 mph
Spin Rate
2159 rpm
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
Swinging Strike
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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21 days ago
Mike Clevinger has gone for 43 or more FanDuel points in three of four, twice topping 50, so his upside is high, and he comes at a discount to Gerrit Cole.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
Eflin continued to struggle in his second year in the majors. He followed up his 5.54 ERA in 2016 with a 6.16 ERA last season, and the high number was well-deserved. He posted a K/9 of just 4.9, well below the major-league average. He did manage a solid walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and an average groundball rate (44.1 percent), but it's hard to succeed as a starter in the big leagues without missing bats. Eflin battled injuries in each of the past two seasons, but he's still just 23 years old, so it's too early to write him off completely. The Phillies remain short on quality starting pitching, so Eflin will likely be given another chance to earn a rotation spot in 2018, but will have to show considerable improvement to stick around with the big-league club.
Eflin entered last season with minimal expectations after his strikeout rate dropped to 4.7 K/9 at Double-A Reading in 2015. He got off to a great start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, thanks in part to a spike in his strikeout rate which Eflin attributed to better command of his fastball along with learning to set hitters up. That improvement earned him a shot with the Phillies in June. Eflin was terrible in his first start, but settled in after that, going 2-3 with a 2.08 ERA over his next seven starts before things went south in his final three appearances. He was placed on the disabled list in early-August with patellar tendinopathy in his knees, a condition he has dealt with since he was a child, along with a fractured foot. It is possible the injuries had some impact on his struggles over his final three starts. Eflin had surgery on both of his knees toward the end of last season and is expected to be ready for spring training. He will need another spike in his strikeout rate to inspire confidence as he managed just a 4.4 K/9 in the majors last season. It may require him to develop another one of his pitches to go with his slider, as both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs were quite hittable last season.
Eflin completed the second full season of his professional career as a 20-year-old at High-A Lake Elsinore, where he fared well against much older competition. His greatest skills growth came in his ability to get opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground more consistently, as he posted a 1.67 GO/AO mark after showing flyball tendencies (0.76 GO/AO) in the Midwest League in 2013. At 6-foot-4, there is still projection remaining for Eflin, who typically works with a low-90s two-seam fastball, but has the ability to reach back and dial up his four-seamer to 97 mph. He also throws a good slider and an improving changeup, rounding out an arsenal that may eventually enable him to miss more bats. At the low end, he should develop into a steady innings eater, but he's very advanced for his age and could develop into a No. 3 starter. Traded to the Dodgers in December before being included in the package that sent Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles, Eflin will begin his first season in the Phillies' organization pitching in the rotation at Double-A.
After an atrocious April in which he faltered his way to a 6.06 ERA in four starts, Eflin settled in nicely, posting a 7-4 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74:23 K:BB ratio in 102.1 innings covering 18 starts. Don't be surprised if he takes the next step in his age-20 season by starting 2014 at High-A Lake Elsinore. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Eflin could make a quick ascent up the Padres' organizational prospect rankings if he fares well in the California League.
More Fantasy News
Loses rotation spot
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 30, 2019
Eflin has lost his spot in the starting rotation and will pitch out of the bullpen moving forward, Todd Zolecki of reports.
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Rotation spot not at risk
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 28, 2019
Eflin won't be losing his spot in the rotation despite his recent struggles, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
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Pounded by Atlanta
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 27, 2019
Eflin (7-11) was charged with the loss Saturday against the Braves after he surrendered 10 runs (six earned) on seven hits and four walks over 2.2 innings. He struck out just one.
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Loses third straight
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 20, 2019
Eflin (7-10) allowed three runs on five hits with no walks and three strikeouts across four innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday.
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Suffers another rough defeat
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 15, 2019
Eflin (7-9) allowed seven runs on nine hits with one walk and five strikeouts across six innings while taking a loss against the Dodgers on Monday.
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