Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Eflin entered 2018 offering little reason for optimism, having recorded ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16 (with similarly ugly FIPs) in two 11-start cameos in the majors. He had shown good control, walking just 5.3% of batters, but hadn’t shown any ability to put hitters away, recording just a 12.0% strikeout rate. In 2018, however, he was a new man. Thanks in part to a fastball which jumped from 92.7 mph to 94.3 mph, he suddenly had the ability to strike batters out, managing a league-average 22.5% strikeout rate in 24 starts. Combined with a walk rate that took just a small step back (to 6.8%), he finished with a solid enough 4.36 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, suggesting room for even more improvement. His spot in the rotation going forward isn’t guaranteed, as Jerad Eickhoff should be healthy this season and the Phillies could bring in more competition in the offseason, but Eflin should remain a competent (if unexciting) option if given the chance. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $590,000 contract with the Phillies in March of 2019.
Strong in final outing
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 28, 2019
Eflin (10-13) earned the win Saturday against the Marlins after allowing three runs on six hits over 7.2 innings. He struck out six and walked two.
ANALYSIS
Eflin worked through 7.2 frames with only one run allowed, but a single and a home run during the eighth inning ended his outing. The 25-year-old had an up-and-down season with a 4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 129:48 K:BB through 163.1 innings, but he'll finish with a quality performance.
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
80
Last 10 Games
75
Last 5 Games
95
How many pitches does Zach Eflin generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Zach Eflin generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2019
Even Split
2018
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .283 729 134 64 184 40 2 37
Since 2017vs Right .264 804 153 33 197 42 0 23
2019vs Left .268 319 56 34 75 17 0 17
2019vs Right .268 386 73 14 97 17 0 11
2018vs Left .286 249 57 21 64 16 2 9
2018vs Right .240 299 66 16 66 18 0 7
2017vs Left .306 161 21 9 45 7 0 11
2017vs Right .312 119 14 3 34 7 0 5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-14%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-6%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-41%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-24%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.23 1.28 180.2 14 11 0 7.8 2.4 1.6
Since 2017Away 4.94 1.41 175.0 8 15 0 6.7 2.5 1.4
2019Home 4.00 1.30 81.0 6 5 0 7.2 2.8 1.4
2019Away 4.26 1.40 82.1 4 8 0 7.0 2.5 1.6
2018Home 3.33 1.19 70.1 8 3 0 9.1 2.6 1.2
2018Away 5.62 1.44 57.2 3 5 0 8.1 2.7 1.1
2017Home 7.06 1.43 29.1 0 3 0 6.1 1.2 3.4
2017Away 5.40 1.40 35.0 1 2 0 3.9 2.1 1.3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Zach Eflin compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.69
 
K/9
7.1
 
BB/9
2.6
 
HR/9
1.5
 
Fastball
93.6 mph
 
ERA
4.13
 
WHIP
1.35
 
BABIP
.303
 
GB/FB
1.41
 
Left On Base
73.0%
 
Exit Velocity
88.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.5%
 
Spin Rate
2147 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
33.6%
 
Swinging Strike
9.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2015
2014
Eflin continued to struggle in his second year in the majors. He followed up his 5.54 ERA in 2016 with a 6.16 ERA last season, and the high number was well-deserved. He posted a K/9 of just 4.9, well below the major-league average. He did manage a solid walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and an average groundball rate (44.1 percent), but it's hard to succeed as a starter in the big leagues without missing bats. Eflin battled injuries in each of the past two seasons, but he's still just 23 years old, so it's too early to write him off completely. The Phillies remain short on quality starting pitching, so Eflin will likely be given another chance to earn a rotation spot in 2018, but will have to show considerable improvement to stick around with the big-league club.
Eflin entered last season with minimal expectations after his strikeout rate dropped to 4.7 K/9 at Double-A Reading in 2015. He got off to a great start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, thanks in part to a spike in his strikeout rate which Eflin attributed to better command of his fastball along with learning to set hitters up. That improvement earned him a shot with the Phillies in June. Eflin was terrible in his first start, but settled in after that, going 2-3 with a 2.08 ERA over his next seven starts before things went south in his final three appearances. He was placed on the disabled list in early-August with patellar tendinopathy in his knees, a condition he has dealt with since he was a child, along with a fractured foot. It is possible the injuries had some impact on his struggles over his final three starts. Eflin had surgery on both of his knees toward the end of last season and is expected to be ready for spring training. He will need another spike in his strikeout rate to inspire confidence as he managed just a 4.4 K/9 in the majors last season. It may require him to develop another one of his pitches to go with his slider, as both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs were quite hittable last season.
Eflin completed the second full season of his professional career as a 20-year-old at High-A Lake Elsinore, where he fared well against much older competition. His greatest skills growth came in his ability to get opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground more consistently, as he posted a 1.67 GO/AO mark after showing flyball tendencies (0.76 GO/AO) in the Midwest League in 2013. At 6-foot-4, there is still projection remaining for Eflin, who typically works with a low-90s two-seam fastball, but has the ability to reach back and dial up his four-seamer to 97 mph. He also throws a good slider and an improving changeup, rounding out an arsenal that may eventually enable him to miss more bats. At the low end, he should develop into a steady innings eater, but he's very advanced for his age and could develop into a No. 3 starter. Traded to the Dodgers in December before being included in the package that sent Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles, Eflin will begin his first season in the Phillies' organization pitching in the rotation at Double-A.
After an atrocious April in which he faltered his way to a 6.06 ERA in four starts, Eflin settled in nicely, posting a 7-4 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74:23 K:BB ratio in 102.1 innings covering 18 starts. Don't be surprised if he takes the next step in his age-20 season by starting 2014 at High-A Lake Elsinore. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Eflin could make a quick ascent up the Padres' organizational prospect rankings if he fares well in the California League.
More Fantasy News
Yields three homers in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 23, 2019
Eflin (9-13) allowed five runs on eight hits and four walks over five innings Monday, striking out two batters and taking the loss against Washington.
ANALYSIS
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Solid effort in ninth win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 19, 2019
Eflin (9-12) picked up the win in Wednesday's 4-1 victory over Atlanta, allowing one unearned run on five hits and two walks while striking out four.
ANALYSIS
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Yields zero earned runs in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 11, 2019
Eflin (8-12) allowed three unearned runs on three hits with three walks and five strikeouts across 3.2 innings while taking a loss against the Braves on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Fans six in no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 7, 2019
Eflin didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 5-4 loss to the Mets, allowing two runs on six hits over five innings while striking out six.
ANALYSIS
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Allows one run in no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 1, 2019
Eflin allowed one run on three hits and a walk in seven innings against the Mets on Sunday but did not factor into the decision. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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