Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2021 Fantasy Outlook
There weren't too many bright spots on the Phillies' pitching staff in 2020, but Eflin was certainly one of them. He trimmed his ERA for the third consecutive year, finishing with a 3.97 mark in 59 innings. His improvement in that category in 2019 wasn't backed by his underlying numbers, but it was this time, as his 3.39 FIP and 3.23 xFIP suggested that he actually deserved a far better ERA. The 26-year-old struck out just 17.6% of opposing batters in his first four big-league seasons, but he jumped all the way up to 28.6% in that category last season. He didn't sacrifice any control to get there, posting a strong walk rate (6.1%). He also recorded a career-high 47.4% groundball rate. Just how much of Eflin's short-season gains stick around in 2021 remains to be seen, but he could be developing into an entirely new tier of starter rather than the boring back-end option he'd settled in as before last season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#193
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.45 million contract with the Phillies in December of 2020.
Stumbles in first inning
PPhiladelphia Phillies
May 13, 2021
Eflin (2-2) allowed five earned runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out nine across six innings to take the loss Thursday against the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
Eflin surrendered a pair of two-run home runs in the first inning, which accounted for the majority of his damage on the day. He did settle in from there and allowed four hits, one walk and one earned run across his final five frames. Eflin also flashed impressive strikeout stuff, punching out a season-high nine batters. Across 51.1 frames, Eflin has maintained a 3.86 ERA with a 51:5 K:BB for the campaign. He projects to take his next turn through the rotation Wednesday against the Marlins.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
92
Last 10 Games
92
Last 5 Games
96
How many pitches does Zach Eflin generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Zach Eflin generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-19%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2019
Even Split
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .280 517 109 46 130 31 0 28
Since 2019vs Right .260 632 141 21 156 36 0 14
2021vs Left .306 87 18 2 26 6 0 4
2021vs Right .248 121 33 3 29 9 0 2
2020vs Left .290 111 35 10 29 8 0 7
2020vs Right .248 125 35 4 30 10 0 1
2019vs Left .268 319 56 34 75 17 0 17
2019vs Right .268 386 73 14 97 17 0 11
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-29%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-63%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-6%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.42 1.21 142.0 9 6 0 8.4 2.0 1.4
Since 2019Away 4.81 1.40 129.0 7 11 0 8.2 2.5 1.4
2021Home 2.08 1.08 26.0 1 0 0 8.3 0.3 0.7
2021Away 5.68 1.26 25.1 1 2 0 9.6 1.4 1.4
2020Home 3.09 1.11 35.0 2 1 0 11.1 1.3 1.8
2020Away 5.91 1.59 21.1 2 1 0 11.4 3.8 0.4
2019Home 4.00 1.30 81.0 6 5 0 7.2 2.8 1.4
2019Away 4.26 1.40 82.1 4 8 0 7.0 2.5 1.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Zach Eflin compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
10.20
 
K/9
8.9
 
BB/9
0.9
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
92.4 mph
 
ERA
3.86
 
WHIP
1.17
 
BABIP
.343
 
GB/FB
1.48
 
Left On Base
74.1%
 
Exit Velocity
82.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.2%
 
Spin Rate
2045 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
30.0%
 
Swinging Strike
10.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
Eflin took a major step forward in 2018, going from looking unplayable to looking like a solid back-end starter. Despite cutting his ERA from 4.36 to 4.13 in 2019, he didn't exactly improve again in his age-25 season. He briefly lost his spot in the rotation as his underlying stats took a turn for the worse. His FIP rose by more than a run (from 3.80 to 4.85), while his strikeout rate fell from 22.5% to 18.3%. He did at least keep his walk rate low, posting a 6.8% mark for the second straight year, and he did improve in one area, posting a career-high 44.6% groundball rate, but that figure is still merely above-average. If Eflin can't improve his strikeout numbers next season, he still might be good enough to stick in the back of the Phillies' rotation, but he won't do much to excite fantasy owners, as low-strikeout starters whose ERAs are just good enough to be playable aren't hard to find.
Eflin entered 2018 offering little reason for optimism, having recorded ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16 (with similarly ugly FIPs) in two 11-start cameos in the majors. He had shown good control, walking just 5.3% of batters, but hadn’t shown any ability to put hitters away, recording just a 12.0% strikeout rate. In 2018, however, he was a new man. Thanks in part to a fastball which jumped from 92.7 mph to 94.3 mph, he suddenly had the ability to strike batters out, managing a league-average 22.5% strikeout rate in 24 starts. Combined with a walk rate that took just a small step back (to 6.8%), he finished with a solid enough 4.36 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, suggesting room for even more improvement. His spot in the rotation going forward isn’t guaranteed, as Jerad Eickhoff should be healthy this season and the Phillies could bring in more competition in the offseason, but Eflin should remain a competent (if unexciting) option if given the chance.
Eflin continued to struggle in his second year in the majors. He followed up his 5.54 ERA in 2016 with a 6.16 ERA last season, and the high number was well-deserved. He posted a K/9 of just 4.9, well below the major-league average. He did manage a solid walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and an average groundball rate (44.1 percent), but it's hard to succeed as a starter in the big leagues without missing bats. Eflin battled injuries in each of the past two seasons, but he's still just 23 years old, so it's too early to write him off completely. The Phillies remain short on quality starting pitching, so Eflin will likely be given another chance to earn a rotation spot in 2018, but will have to show considerable improvement to stick around with the big-league club.
Eflin entered last season with minimal expectations after his strikeout rate dropped to 4.7 K/9 at Double-A Reading in 2015. He got off to a great start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, thanks in part to a spike in his strikeout rate which Eflin attributed to better command of his fastball along with learning to set hitters up. That improvement earned him a shot with the Phillies in June. Eflin was terrible in his first start, but settled in after that, going 2-3 with a 2.08 ERA over his next seven starts before things went south in his final three appearances. He was placed on the disabled list in early-August with patellar tendinopathy in his knees, a condition he has dealt with since he was a child, along with a fractured foot. It is possible the injuries had some impact on his struggles over his final three starts. Eflin had surgery on both of his knees toward the end of last season and is expected to be ready for spring training. He will need another spike in his strikeout rate to inspire confidence as he managed just a 4.4 K/9 in the majors last season. It may require him to develop another one of his pitches to go with his slider, as both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs were quite hittable last season.
Eflin completed the second full season of his professional career as a 20-year-old at High-A Lake Elsinore, where he fared well against much older competition. His greatest skills growth came in his ability to get opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground more consistently, as he posted a 1.67 GO/AO mark after showing flyball tendencies (0.76 GO/AO) in the Midwest League in 2013. At 6-foot-4, there is still projection remaining for Eflin, who typically works with a low-90s two-seam fastball, but has the ability to reach back and dial up his four-seamer to 97 mph. He also throws a good slider and an improving changeup, rounding out an arsenal that may eventually enable him to miss more bats. At the low end, he should develop into a steady innings eater, but he's very advanced for his age and could develop into a No. 3 starter. Traded to the Dodgers in December before being included in the package that sent Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles, Eflin will begin his first season in the Phillies' organization pitching in the rotation at Double-A.
After an atrocious April in which he faltered his way to a 6.06 ERA in four starts, Eflin settled in nicely, posting a 7-4 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74:23 K:BB ratio in 102.1 innings covering 18 starts. Don't be surprised if he takes the next step in his age-20 season by starting 2014 at High-A Lake Elsinore. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Eflin could make a quick ascent up the Padres' organizational prospect rankings if he fares well in the California League.
More Fantasy News
Fans eight against Atlanta
PPhiladelphia Phillies
May 8, 2021
Eflin (2-2) picked up the win in Friday's 12-2 rout of Atlanta, giving up two runs on five hits and a walk over 6.2 innings. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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Quality start in no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
May 2, 2021
Eflin allowed two earned runs on 10 hits while striking out seven across six innings in the loss to the Mets on Sunday. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Surrenders nine hits in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
April 28, 2021
Eflin (1-1) suffered his first loss of the season Tuesday against the Cardinals while allowing five runs on nine hits and striking out eight over 6.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Takes no-decision in quality start
PPhiladelphia Phillies
April 21, 2021
Eflin allowed one run on seven hits and zero walks over six innings during Wednesday's 6-5 win over the Giants. He had three strikeouts and didn't factor in the decison.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out six in win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
April 16, 2021
Eflin (1-0) allowed two runs on six hits and no walks while striking out six in seven-plus innings to earn the win against the Cardinals on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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