Jesse Winker

Winker was a bright spot for the Reds in 2018 before a shoulder injury and subsequent surgery curtailed his season in July. It took awhile for him to get regular playing time, and he wasn't great early on, but really hit his stride (along with a number of opposing pitchers' offerings) in the last two months, before he got hurt. He walked more than he struck out in his age-24 season. It is unclear how much of an outlier his .231 ISO in 2017 will end up being, but Winker has long played through shoulder woes, so his underwhelming power figures in the upper levels of the minors do not tell the whole story. While the Reds acquired Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in an offseason trade, Winker seems like the least likely incumbent outfielder to lose out on significant playing time, given his age and pedigree. Between his on-base skills and likely position in the order, Winker should be a good source of cheap counting stats from a third or fourth outfielder slot.

It was easy to project a power breakout for Winker. He played through a wrist injury in 2016, was repeating Triple-A and his size and approach suggested he could unlock more thump. Then he hit just two home runs in 85 games in the International League. Just when the last passenger jumped off the "Winker could hit for power" bandwagon, he blasted seven bombs after an August 1 callup. In his last 105 MLB at-bats, he hit as many home runs as he did in his previous 708 professional at-bats. Power is impossible to figure out these days. It's easy, however, to see that Winker has a ridiculously advanced approach and hit tool for a player his age, at least against righties. He has not shown an ability to do damage against lefties in the upper levels, and the Reds have two readymade platoon options in Adam Duvall and Phillip Ervin. Winker may wrangle an everyday job at some point, but barring a trade, he could be sharing right field duty to start the year.

Although Winker's prospect luster has faded a bit, his advanced approach gives him a relatively high floor, and he's now knocking at the door for the rebuilding Reds. Scott Schebler represents the only real obstacle to playing time in right field. Winker was promoted to Triple-A Louisville in 2016 and finished seventh in the International League with a .397 OBP, walking as many times as he struck out in 448 plate appearances. Now the bad news. Winker totaled just three homers with Louisville as a wrist injury hindered his power stroke, and he hit .260 with a .346 SLG against left-handed pitching. While he was never much of a runner, Winker didn't even attempt a stolen base all year. The International League is tough on power and Winker should see the power tick up some with improved health and especially when he gets to Great American Ball Park, but it will need to tick up considerably for him to maintain 2017 relevance outside of NL-only leagues.

In a way, Winker is a bit of a poor man's Joey Votto - his strongest offensive skill is his ability to get on-base, as he's never had a walk rate below 13 percent in his professional career. Going along with that, there's a concern that Winker isn't hitting for enough power yet, slugging just .433 last year at Double-A Pensacola. He really struggled over the first half of the season, but a strong finish (he hit .344/.457/.560 from August 1 to the end of the season) salvaged his overall numbers. The Reds will probably wait until June or July to call him up due to service time considerations, but Winker will be in Cincinnati at some point in 2016, barring injury.

The Reds' 2012 draft is looking better each year. Not only did first-round pick Nick Travieso take a big step in 2014, so did Winker before a wrist injury at Double-A derailed his season. But he rallied in the Arizona Fall League to win the batting title there, hitting .338/.440/.559. The big question for the Reds is how soon they believe Winker will be ready for the big leagues. They had a pretty big hole in left field last season, and had a really hard time getting good on-base guys. Winker managed only 21 games at Double-A Pensacola last year before getting hurt, so chances are he could begin 2015 at that level but then get promoted aggressively if he starts off well.

The Reds' farm system lacks high-impact offensive players, but Winker demonstrated quite a bit of promise at Low-A Dayton in 2013, showing both power (his 16 homers were in the league's top-10 despite Dayton being a tough park to hit in) and patience (13% walk rate, 82% contact rate). Don't be surprised if the 2012 first-round supplemental pick out of high school in Florida takes a big leap in High-A in 2014.