Marco Gonzales
Marco Gonzales
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Seattle Mariners
10-Day IL
Injury Forearm
Est. Return 5/26/2021
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Gonzales parlayed the highest strikeout and lowest walk rate of his career into his best season ever. His resultant 20.6 K-BB% ranked 16th among qualified starters. While this is impressive, it's not commensurate with his elite ratios. Gonzales altered his pitch mix, throwing more cutters and sinkers in lieu of fewer changeups. It's unclear if the tweak is the reason or if it's a sample-size effect, but Gonzales' curveball, cutter and sinker all missed more bats. If he's able to maintain his strikeout gains, not only does that directly boost his fantasy production, but it also softens the variance he's experienced the past few seasons. In addition, more whiffs will offset the likely increase of his career-low 2.5 BB%. If the room wants to chase 2020's surface stats, don't get in the way, but if there's pause, don't hesitate to draft Gonzales. At worst, he can be streamed at home. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#177
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $30 million contract extension with the Mariners in February of 2020. Contract includes team option for 2025.
To throw again Tuesday
PSeattle Mariners
Forearm
May 17, 2021
Gonzales (forearm) successfully threw 15 short-distance pitches off a mound Monday and is scheduled to throw again Tuesday, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle reports.
ANALYSIS
Drayer notes that Gonzales felt strong on the hill Monday and that if all goes well Tuesday, he could be on track to throw a bullpen session Friday. The southpaw was placed on the 10-day injured list April 29 with a mild forearm strain.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
96
Last 10 Games
96
Last 5 Games
96
How many pitches does Marco Gonzales generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Marco Gonzales generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-62%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-25%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .275 331 47 13 84 16 0 9
Since 2019vs Right .245 926 186 60 210 55 3 28
2021vs Left .118 37 4 1 4 0 0 0
2021vs Right .311 84 19 10 23 9 0 6
2020vs Left .269 71 14 1 18 4 0 1
2020vs Right .202 199 49 5 39 8 0 7
2019vs Left .302 223 29 11 62 12 0 8
2019vs Right .251 643 118 45 148 38 3 15
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-4%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-36%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-1%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.84 1.13 138.1 13 6 0 7.4 1.9 1.0
Since 2019Away 4.00 1.31 157.2 11 12 0 6.6 2.5 1.3
2021Home 4.15 1.08 13.0 0 1 0 5.5 2.8 2.1
2021Away 6.46 1.57 15.1 1 2 0 8.8 4.1 1.8
2020Home 3.21 0.79 28.0 4 0 0 8.7 0.6 1.6
2020Away 2.95 1.01 36.2 3 2 0 7.9 1.0 0.7
2019Home 3.98 1.24 97.1 9 5 0 7.2 2.1 0.6
2019Away 4.00 1.37 105.2 7 8 0 5.9 2.8 1.4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Marco Gonzales compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.09
 
K/9
7.3
 
BB/9
3.5
 
HR/9
1.9
 
Fastball
87.9 mph
 
ERA
5.40
 
WHIP
1.34
 
BABIP
.270
 
GB/FB
0.85
 
Left On Base
70.9%
 
Exit Velocity
83.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
9.1%
 
Spin Rate
2209 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
31.3%
 
Swinging Strike
7.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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35 days ago
Jesse Siegel details the upcoming youth revolution in Seattle while looking at other prospects from around the league.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Gonzales illustrates pitching volatility. His ERAs the past two seasons are nearly identical: 4.00 in 2018 and 3.99 last season. The thing is, he was a significantly better pitcher two years ago but was unlucky. In 2019, the luck happened to reverse. To wit, Gonzales' 2018 xFIP was 3.59 with a 3.81 SIERA. Last year they were 5.11 and 5.08, respectively. Driving the difference was a drop in strikeouts combined with poorer control along with an uptick in HR/9. His 2019 K-BB% was 10.5%, down six points from the prior campaign. While variance affects all hurlers, it tends to manifest more on those with low strikeout rates and Gonzales' 17% mark was well below average. Now over three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Gonzales is durable, the prototypical innings eater. His volatility is a mixed-league risk, but his better skills at home render the southpaw an option in leagues conducive to streaming.
Gonzales enjoyed a bounce-back season with Seattle thanks in part to a new cutter that gave him another weapon to attack righties. Righties crushed him in St. Louis in 2017 to the tune of .346/.388/.566, so Gonzales added a cutter and that slash line improved to .266/.309/.418 last season. His 4.00 ERA feels out of place for a pitcher with a 1.22 WHIP and a 16.5 K-BB%. Gonzales does not have another level when it comes to strikeouts, but the improving walk rate is encouraging for him since he averages more than a hit allowed per inning. As long as he can limit his walks, the extra hits get offset. The innings spike looks greater than it was -- Gonzales logged 126.1 innings between the minors and majors in 2017 in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. There is some concern for a letdown in 2019, but Gonzales has job security and a favorable home park, so he's at least in the mix as a streamer.
Gonzales returned from Tommy John surgery last season, making 11 appearances (eight starts) with the Mariners after coming over from St. Louis in a July trade. The results were ugly, but the top estimators point to the lefty being at least a run better than his ERA would suggest (5.06 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, 4.48 SIERA). His strikeout rate was modest at 7.2 K/9 and Gonzales had trouble with the long ball (1.80 HR/9), but he posted a strong walk rate for the year (2.5 BB/9) and his numbers at Triple-A were solid. Gonzales was excellent in seven relief innings (24.1 K-BB percentage) and he finished strong overall, posting a 2.81 ERA in September. As things stand, Gonzales appears likely to serve as Seattle's swingman to open 2018. That puts him just an injury away from starts, and of course the top two arms in the Mariners' rotation (James Paxton and Felix Hernandez) have dealt with a slew of injuries in recent years.
After missing 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Gonzales is unlikely to be back pitching in games until a month or two into the 2017 season. He will almost certainly spend time at Triple-A Memphis once healthy due to the fact that he is yet to impress in the majors and seemed to take a step back in the minors before he went under the knife. Over 14 starts with Memphis in 2015 (when he most recently pitched), Gonzales really struggled to retire the opposition, as batters hit .317 with him on the mound. He was much better at Triple-A in 2014, and it is possible his elbow was already an issue during his struggles in 2015. His stuff profiles better at the back of a big league rotation than in the bullpen, so he should continue to be developed as a starter, but given the Cardinals' rotation depth it is unclear when he will get a legitimate look in that role as long as he remains in this organization.
Gonzales’ proximity to the big leagues is the selling point and his lack of upside is a reason to look elsewhere in dynasty leagues. He will never be more than a No. 3 starter, and of course he’s far from a lock to actualize that ceiling. Assuming Carlos Martinez is over the shoulder issues that plagued him at the end of the year, Gonzales, Tim Cooney and Tyler Lyons are all on the outside looking in on the rotation heading into spring training. Gonzales had his own shoulder issues in the first half of last season, which may have contributed to his shaky run in the Pacific Coast League, but he will nonetheless be relying more on stuff and reputation than tangible success. Meanwhile, Cooney and Lyons can both point to successful, albeit brief runs in the MLB rotation last season, so Gonzales should enter camp as an underdog to serve as the first choice to fill in if someone in the rotation goes down with an injury.
Gonzales was terrific for the Cardinals when called upon in 2014, posting a 4.12 ERA in seven starts and striking out 39 in 43.2 innings. His xFIP of 2.94 shows just how good he was and going into his age-23 season, there's a lot for Cardinals fans and fantasy owners to be excited about. Arguably the organization's top pitching prospect entering 2014, Gonzales has a legitimate shot to crack the Cardinals' rotation in 2015 following the departure of Shelby Miller. He'll have to beat out fellow phenom Carlos Martinez along with oft-injured Jaime Garcia. Gonzales clearly has the talent to do so and if he gets the chance, he could be a great fantasy asset. However, the Cardinals could choose to develop Gonzales the same way they have Martinez, who was relegated to bullpen duties despite arguably being St. Louis' best pitcher last spring.
Gonzales was the Cardinals' first-round pick out of Gonzaga University in the 2013 draft. The lefty is a high-floor pitcher, but he doesn't have a ton of upside and could work his way to the majors late this season. In his first season as a professional, Gonzales posted a 2.70 ERA in 23.1 innings, striking out 23 while walking eight. It's an extremely small sample size, and the Cardinals will have a much better idea of what they have in the 22-year-old after a few months in Double-A, where he should start the 2014 season.
More Fantasy News
Returning to mound Monday
PSeattle Mariners
Forearm
May 16, 2021
Gonzales (forearm) will throw off a mound Monday for the first time since landing on the injured list, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Mound work coming soon
PSeattle Mariners
Forearm
May 7, 2021
Gonzales (forearm) could advance to mound work as soon as this weekend, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Eyeing short absence
PSeattle Mariners
Forearm
May 2, 2021
Mariners manager Scott Servais said Gonzales (forearm) was able to throw off flat ground Sunday, Lauren Smith of The Tacoma News Tribune reports.
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Out with forearm strain
PSeattle Mariners
Forearm
April 29, 2021
Gonzales was placed on the injured list with a mild forearm strain Thursday, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Effective despite loss
PSeattle Mariners
April 27, 2021
Gonzales (1-3) took the loss against Houston on Tuesday, pitching six innings and allowing two runs on five hits and three walks while striking out four.
ANALYSIS
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