Zach Davies
Zach Davies
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Milwaukee Brewers
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Davies started 61 games for the Brewers across the 2016 and 2017 seasons, so it was thought that he would be a regular in the Brewers' rotation all last year. However, thanks to injuries and managerial decisions, he made just 13 starts, and only saw action in one postseason game. Davies' underlying numbers in 2018 weren't all that different than the year before -- he averaged 89 mph on his fastball, and his 4.43 FIP was just a tick higher than the 4.27 FIP he posted in 2017 -- so not much has changed with his profile. Davies will head into spring training as a favorite to come away with a spot in the team's rotation to open the regular season. He accumulated 28 wins across 2016 and 2017 for teams not as talented as the current Brewers' version, so he could be a sneaky producer in that category should he stay healthy in 2019. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $2.6 million contract with the Brewers in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Another rough outing
PMilwaukee Brewers
June 25, 2019
Davies (7-2) allowed six runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks while striking out four across four innings to take the loss Tuesday against Seattle.
ANALYSIS
Davies worked through the first two innings without incident. That changed quickly in the third frame, however, when he allowed four consecutive extra-base hits -- capped off by a two-run homer by Ryan Vogelbach. Davies has now allowed at least three earned runs without working more than five innings in each of his last four starts, causing his ERA to spike from 2.20 to 3.34. His reliance on contact -- he's struck out only 57 across 86.1 innings -- makes him a volatile option, and he's been on the wrong end of results of late. However, he'll try to get back on track in a positive matchup Sunday against Pittsburgh.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-9%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .272 724 118 67 173 36 9 22
Since 2017vs Right .278 742 112 36 191 29 5 17
2019vs Left .293 185 24 15 48 9 3 7
2019vs Right .268 184 33 12 45 8 1 4
2018vs Left .263 133 25 16 30 8 2 2
2018vs Right .274 147 24 5 37 4 1 6
2017vs Left .265 406 69 36 95 19 4 13
2017vs Right .285 411 55 19 109 17 3 7
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-48%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-20%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-5%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-65%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 5.11 1.48 176.0 13 12 0 6.1 2.9 1.2
Since 2017Away 2.68 1.23 167.2 13 6 0 6.0 2.5 0.9
2019Home 3.79 1.37 35.2 4 1 0 4.8 3.3 1.5
2019Away 3.02 1.40 50.2 3 1 0 6.8 2.5 0.9
2018Home 4.70 1.30 46.0 1 4 0 7.2 2.5 1.0
2018Away 4.95 1.40 20.0 1 3 0 5.4 3.6 1.4
2017Home 5.82 1.60 94.1 8 7 0 6.0 3.0 1.1
2017Away 2.04 1.11 97.0 9 2 0 5.7 2.2 0.7
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Stat Review
How does Zach Davies compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 40 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.11
 
K/9
5.9
 
BB/9
2.8
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
88.2 mph
 
ERA
3.34
 
WHIP
1.39
 
BABIP
.305
 
GB/FB
1.32
 
Left On Base
77.4%
 
Exit Velocity
88.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.8%
 
Spin Rate
2127 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
35.0%
 
Swinging Strike
7.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Brewers Depth Chart
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Zach Davies
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10 days ago
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Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Busy Week for Double Dippers
11 days ago
Todd Zola's weekly pitcher rankings feature a familiar face and the return of an old friend to the top in the busiest week of the season for two-start options.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
Davies struggled throughout the first half of 2017, as he gave up a surprisingly high number of homers (1.39 HR/9) and also missed bats at a significantly lower clip than he did in 2016, with his strikeout rate falling from 7.4 K/9 to 5.8. Fortunately for the Brewers, he was much more effective in the second half, lowering his ERA by more than two full runs (2.87) despite similar strikeout and walk rates thanks to a big step forward with the long ball. For the season, Davies improved his groundball rate (50.2 percent), and managed to reduce his home-run rate from 2016 in a year where the league-wide surge in homers pushed most pitchers in the other direction. The lack of overpowering stuff and a low swinging-strike rate (7.2 percent) make a spike in strikeouts unlikely, and widen the range of outcomes for him as he's very dependent on the defense behind him. Davies commands his arsenal well, and he should remain a fixture in the Milwaukee rotation throughout 2018.
For the second straight season, the rail-thin righty turned in an above-average performance out of Milwaukee's rotation. Davies may not have big velocity (89.3 mph average fastball), but he can change speeds and use his offspeed pitches to close out counts when he gets ahead. It was also impressive to see Davies respond positively after an utterly atrocious start. He allowed five runs over just 2.1 innings in his first start April 17 and finished April with an 8.78 ERA in three starts. He went on to allow more than three runs just four times in his final 25 starts, going 11-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 150 innings over that span. His lack of dominant stuff limits his ceiling, but Davies is already looking like a solid mid-rotation pitcher -- at just 24 years old no less.
Davies earned six starts after rosters expanded in September and steadily improved throughout his stint, as he posted three consecutive quality starts to finish off the season, including two starts of at least six shutout innings. Davies is rail-thin, listed at 6-feet and 160 pounds, and his fastball averaged just under 90 mph. But he induced an extreme amount of groundballs (57.6%) and was just crafty enough to keep the ball in the yard, as he surrendered just two home runs. His changeup looked particularly nasty, as hitters swung and missed at more than one in every four he threw, and he picked up 13 of his 25 strikeouts with the pitch. Davies will have to remain crafty without a big fastball, but he has the diverse repertoire necessary to succeed in the majors, even if he lacks a top-end ceiling.
More Fantasy News
Early exit against Padres
PMilwaukee Brewers
June 19, 2019
Davies didn't factor into the decision in Wednesday's 8-7 loss to the Padres, coughing up five runs on nine hits and three walks over 2.2 innings while striking out three.
ANALYSIS
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Takes first loss
PMilwaukee Brewers
June 14, 2019
Davies (7-1) took the loss in Friday's 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Giants, allowing three runs on six hits and a walk while striking out two over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Wins seventh game
PMilwaukee Brewers
June 8, 2019
Davies (7-0) allowed three runs on seven hits with three strikeouts and one walk across five innings to earn a victory against the Pirates on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Wins sixth game
PMilwaukee Brewers
June 2, 2019
Davies (6-0) allowed two runs on eight hits with three strikeouts and a walk across eight innings to earn the victory against the Pirates on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Next start bumped up
PMilwaukee Brewers
June 1, 2019
Davies will now start Sunday against the Pirates, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
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