Zach Davies
Zach Davies
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Milwaukee Brewers
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Davies struggled throughout the first half of 2017, as he gave up a surprisingly high number of homers (1.39 HR/9) and also missed bats at a significantly lower clip than he did in 2016, with his strikeout rate falling from 7.4 K/9 to 5.8. Fortunately for the Brewers, he was much more effective in the second half, lowering his ERA by more than two full runs (2.87) despite similar strikeout and walk rates thanks to a big step forward with the long ball. For the season, Davies improved his groundball rate (50.2 percent), and managed to reduce his home-run rate from 2016 in a year where the league-wide surge in homers pushed most pitchers in the other direction. The lack of overpowering stuff and a low swinging-strike rate (7.2 percent) make a spike in strikeouts unlikely, and widen the range of outcomes for him as he's very dependent on the defense behind him. Davies commands his arsenal well, and he should remain a fixture in the Milwaukee rotation throughout 2018. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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Takes sixth loss
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 15, 2018
Davies (2-6) took the loss Saturday, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk over five innings while striking out three as the Brewers fell 3-1 to the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
The 25-year-old isn't providing the Brewers with much length, tossing exactly five innings in each of his first three starts since rejoining the rotation. but his 3.00 ERA and 12:3 K:BB in 15 innings are solid. Davies will look for a better result in his next start Friday on the road in a rematch with Pittsburgh.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .268 847 149 71 202 43 9 25
Since 2016vs Right .271 900 153 42 226 32 6 23
2018vs Left .260 115 21 16 25 8 2 2
2018vs Right .270 133 22 4 33 3 1 6
2017vs Left .265 406 69 36 95 19 4 13
2017vs Right .285 411 55 19 109 17 3 7
2016vs Left .272 326 59 19 82 16 3 10
2016vs Right .255 356 76 19 84 12 2 10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-34%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-11%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-65%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 4.68 1.35 244.1 16 16 0 7.1 2.5 1.2
Since 2016Away 3.10 1.25 168.1 14 6 0 5.9 2.5 0.9
2018Home 4.50 1.31 42.0 1 4 0 7.3 2.8 1.1
2018Away 5.06 1.44 16.0 1 2 0 5.1 3.9 1.7
2017Home 5.82 1.60 94.1 8 7 0 6.0 3.0 1.1
2017Away 2.04 1.11 97.0 9 2 0 5.7 2.2 0.7
2016Home 3.75 1.16 108.0 7 5 0 7.9 1.9 1.3
2016Away 4.39 1.43 55.1 4 2 0 6.5 2.4 0.8
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Stat Review
How does Zach Davies compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.15
 
K/9
6.7
 
BB/9
3.1
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
89.8 mph
 
ERA
4.66
 
WHIP
1.34
 
BABIP
.293
 
GB/FB
1.81
 
Strand %
68.6%
 
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
For the second straight season, the rail-thin righty turned in an above-average performance out of Milwaukee's rotation. Davies may not have big velocity (89.3 mph average fastball), but he can change speeds and use his offspeed pitches to close out counts when he gets ahead. It was also impressive to see Davies respond positively after an utterly atrocious start. He allowed five runs over just 2.1 innings in his first start April 17 and finished April with an 8.78 ERA in three starts. He went on to allow more than three runs just four times in his final 25 starts, going 11-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 150 innings over that span. His lack of dominant stuff limits his ceiling, but Davies is already looking like a solid mid-rotation pitcher -- at just 24 years old no less.
Davies earned six starts after rosters expanded in September and steadily improved throughout his stint, as he posted three consecutive quality starts to finish off the season, including two starts of at least six shutout innings. Davies is rail-thin, listed at 6-feet and 160 pounds, and his fastball averaged just under 90 mph. But he induced an extreme amount of groundballs (57.6%) and was just crafty enough to keep the ball in the yard, as he surrendered just two home runs. His changeup looked particularly nasty, as hitters swung and missed at more than one in every four he threw, and he picked up 13 of his 25 strikeouts with the pitch. Davies will have to remain crafty without a big fastball, but he has the diverse repertoire necessary to succeed in the majors, even if he lacks a top-end ceiling.
More Fantasy News
Allows two runs in no-decision
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 10, 2018
Davies allowed two runs on six hits and one walk across five innings Sunday in a no-decision against the Giants. He struck out two.
ANALYSIS
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Sticks in rotation
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 5, 2018
Davies is scheduled to make his next start Sunday against the Giants, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out seven in return from injury
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 4, 2018
Davies tossed five innings of one-run ball Monday in a no-decision against the Cubs, allowing four hits with one walk and seven strikeouts.
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Recalled ahead of Monday's start
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 2, 2018
The Brewers recalled Davies from Low-A Wisconsin on Sunday.
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Listed as Monday's starter vs. Cubs
PMilwaukee Brewers
August 30, 2018
Davies is in line to pitch Monday's series opener against the Cubs, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
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