Zach Davies

Zach Davies

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Davies was shipped from Milwaukee to San Diego last offseason, and the significant upgrade in park seemed set to boost his fantasy value. That did indeed happen, as he produced a very strong 2.73 ERA in 12 starts after posting a 3.91 ERA in his five years as a Brewer. His improvement was more than just a change in park, however. After producing a career-low 15.2 K% in 2019, he smashed his previous high in 2020, posting a 22.8 K%. His 6.9 BB% was his lowest mark since 2017. Those changes came with a shift in his repertoire, as his changeup usage soared to 41.3%, ahead of his fastball (38.5%). That means there's a good chance his short-season gains stick, though we still shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves. Even his improved strikeout rate remained below-average, and his ERA came with a modest 3.88 FIP, so don't expect another sub-3.00 mark, especially now that he'll call hitter-friendly Wrigley Field home. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#541
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $5.25 million contract with the Padres in January of 2020. Traded to the Cubs in December of 2020.
Won't make another start
PChicago Cubs  
September 30, 2021
Davies won't pitch during this weekend's series against the Cardinals, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Davies' final turn through the rotation lined up for Friday's series opener, but he'll instead shut things down after discussing it with the team. The 28-year-old struggled during his first season with the Cubs, posting a 5.78 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 114:75 K:BB over 148 innings, and he's poised to hit free agency during the offseason.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
81
Last 10 Games
75
Last 5 Games
71
How many pitches does Zach Davies generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Zach Davies generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-31%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .238 753 109 77 157 36 4 24
Since 2019vs Right .275 856 169 68 212 40 3 30
2021vs Left .251 293 44 44 60 19 0 10
2021vs Right .302 375 70 31 102 22 1 15
2020vs Left .168 120 20 7 19 3 1 2
2020vs Right .244 149 42 12 33 5 0 7
2019vs Left .254 340 45 26 78 14 3 12
2019vs Right .258 332 57 25 77 13 2 8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-31%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-25%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-24%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-31%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 5.06 1.39 190.1 13 14 0 6.7 3.4 1.9
Since 2019Away 3.47 1.35 186.2 10 9 0 6.7 3.6 0.7
2021Home 6.48 1.61 84.2 4 8 0 6.7 4.0 2.2
2021Away 4.83 1.59 63.1 2 4 0 7.2 5.3 0.6
2020Home 3.13 1.11 31.2 3 2 0 8.8 2.3 1.7
2020Away 2.39 1.04 37.2 4 2 0 7.6 2.6 0.7
2019Home 4.26 1.27 74.0 6 4 0 5.7 3.0 1.6
2019Away 2.94 1.31 85.2 4 3 0 5.8 2.7 0.7
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Stat Review
How does Zach Davies compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.52
 
K/9
6.9
 
BB/9
4.6
 
HR/9
1.5
 
Fastball
88.0 mph
 
ERA
5.78
 
WHIP
1.60
 
BABIP
.311
 
GB/FB
1.44
 
Left On Base
68.3%
 
Exit Velocity
81.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.9%
 
Spin Rate
1927 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
28.8%
 
Swinging Strike
9.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Zach Davies
MLB: Jeff Zimmerman on Starter/Reliever Splits
34 days ago
Jeff Zimmerman discusses why it's important to look at starter/reliever splits and identifies the 65 players who started five games and relieved in five others in 2021.
MLB: Jeff Zimmerman on When to Drop Struggling Pitchers
37 days ago
Jeff Zimmerman offers a simple rule of thumb for determining pitchers who have lost some talent versus those who have simply been unlucky.
MLB Barometer: End of Season Risers and Fallers
66 days ago
In his last Barometer of the season, Erik Halterman looks at players whose finish in earned auction value diverged most from their preseason draft position, starting with Jose Ramirez.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Saving the Best For Last
68 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the starting pitching for the final weekend of the season, as Zack Wheeler has two more chances to embellish his Cy Young resume.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Good News, Bad News?
75 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching, which offers plenty of double-dippers but only a few quality arms like Robbie Ray with two starts.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Injuries limited Davies to just 13 starts in 2018, but he bounced back in 2019, leading the Brewers with 31 starts and 159.2 innings pitched. Davies became the first pitcher in Brewers history to begin a season 7-0, compiling a 2.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in his first 74.2 frames. The right-hander labored through his next 10 starts before briefly landing on the IL with a back injury. Davies righted the ship upon his return, posting a 2.92 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his final eight appearances (37 innings). He finished the season with a career-best 3.55 ERA, though the estimators say he was pitching over his skis (4.56 FIP, 5.20 xFIP). Davies should enter spring training with the inside track on a rotation spot for San Diego following a November trade. While he doesn't miss many bats (career 6.6 K/9), Davies has tallied 10 or more wins while posting a sub-4.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons.
Davies started 61 games for the Brewers across the 2016 and 2017 seasons, so it was thought that he would be a regular in the Brewers' rotation all last year. However, thanks to injuries and managerial decisions, he made just 13 starts, and only saw action in one postseason game. Davies' underlying numbers in 2018 weren't all that different than the year before -- he averaged 89 mph on his fastball, and his 4.43 FIP was just a tick higher than the 4.27 FIP he posted in 2017 -- so not much has changed with his profile. Davies will head into spring training as a favorite to come away with a spot in the team's rotation to open the regular season. He accumulated 28 wins across 2016 and 2017 for teams not as talented as the current Brewers' version, so he could be a sneaky producer in that category should he stay healthy in 2019.
Davies struggled throughout the first half of 2017, as he gave up a surprisingly high number of homers (1.39 HR/9) and also missed bats at a significantly lower clip than he did in 2016, with his strikeout rate falling from 7.4 K/9 to 5.8. Fortunately for the Brewers, he was much more effective in the second half, lowering his ERA by more than two full runs (2.87) despite similar strikeout and walk rates thanks to a big step forward with the long ball. For the season, Davies improved his groundball rate (50.2 percent), and managed to reduce his home-run rate from 2016 in a year where the league-wide surge in homers pushed most pitchers in the other direction. The lack of overpowering stuff and a low swinging-strike rate (7.2 percent) make a spike in strikeouts unlikely, and widen the range of outcomes for him as he's very dependent on the defense behind him. Davies commands his arsenal well, and he should remain a fixture in the Milwaukee rotation throughout 2018.
For the second straight season, the rail-thin righty turned in an above-average performance out of Milwaukee's rotation. Davies may not have big velocity (89.3 mph average fastball), but he can change speeds and use his offspeed pitches to close out counts when he gets ahead. It was also impressive to see Davies respond positively after an utterly atrocious start. He allowed five runs over just 2.1 innings in his first start April 17 and finished April with an 8.78 ERA in three starts. He went on to allow more than three runs just four times in his final 25 starts, going 11-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 150 innings over that span. His lack of dominant stuff limits his ceiling, but Davies is already looking like a solid mid-rotation pitcher -- at just 24 years old no less.
Davies earned six starts after rosters expanded in September and steadily improved throughout his stint, as he posted three consecutive quality starts to finish off the season, including two starts of at least six shutout innings. Davies is rail-thin, listed at 6-feet and 160 pounds, and his fastball averaged just under 90 mph. But he induced an extreme amount of groundballs (57.6%) and was just crafty enough to keep the ball in the yard, as he surrendered just two home runs. His changeup looked particularly nasty, as hitters swung and missed at more than one in every four he threw, and he picked up 13 of his 25 strikeouts with the pitch. Davies will have to remain crafty without a big fastball, but he has the diverse repertoire necessary to succeed in the majors, even if he lacks a top-end ceiling.
More Fantasy News
Hit hard in loss
PChicago Cubs  
September 25, 2021
Davies (6-12) lasted just two innings Friday against the Cardinals, allowing six runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out two as he took the loss.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard again Friday
PChicago Cubs  
September 18, 2021
Davies allowed four runs on six hits and three walks while striking out three over 4.1 innings Friday against the Brewers. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Gives up five in short start
PChicago Cubs  
September 11, 2021
Davies (6-11) allowed five runs on four hits and three walks with one strikeout through two innings, taking the loss in Saturday's 15-4 defeat to the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Roughed up for six runs
PChicago Cubs  
September 6, 2021
Davies allowed six runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out three batters over four innings Sunday against the Pirates. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Allows one run in no-decision
PChicago Cubs  
August 31, 2021
Davies allowed one earned run on six hits while striking out three across 4.1 innings in the win over the Twins on Tuesday. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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