Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL East

Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL East

This article is part of our Mound Musings series.

We're closing in on Opening Day, and the excitement is sure building. Things will change as Spring Training finishes up, but we have handled those changes on the fly. This is the sixth of six columns briefly reviewing the pitching staffs of all 30 teams. Remember, the Musings are intended to be interactive. Ask questions and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:

National League East

Atlanta Braves – Many of the team pitching staff evaluations will focus on the "haves" and "have nots" of MLB. No team ever really has enough pitching, but the Braves do appear to fall on the positive side of the ledger. I'm going to start with Spencer Strider. Perhaps never have I been so fooled by a pitcher. The first time I saw him, he looked okay, but nothing really special. The always risky two-pitch starting pitcher. The next time he was better and then he was better again, and again. It happened every start. And, by the end of the season, I thought he was one of the best pitchers in the game, and I hesitate to say he can't continue to improve. Next, Max Fried is solid, although he often looks hittable to me, so I usually avoid him. The Braves added Chris Sale and he is next on the food chain. He says he feels better than he has in years, and he looks it. The Braves' staff is very good,

We're closing in on Opening Day, and the excitement is sure building. Things will change as Spring Training finishes up, but we have handled those changes on the fly. This is the sixth of six columns briefly reviewing the pitching staffs of all 30 teams. Remember, the Musings are intended to be interactive. Ask questions and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:

National League East

Atlanta Braves – Many of the team pitching staff evaluations will focus on the "haves" and "have nots" of MLB. No team ever really has enough pitching, but the Braves do appear to fall on the positive side of the ledger. I'm going to start with Spencer Strider. Perhaps never have I been so fooled by a pitcher. The first time I saw him, he looked okay, but nothing really special. The always risky two-pitch starting pitcher. The next time he was better and then he was better again, and again. It happened every start. And, by the end of the season, I thought he was one of the best pitchers in the game, and I hesitate to say he can't continue to improve. Next, Max Fried is solid, although he often looks hittable to me, so I usually avoid him. The Braves added Chris Sale and he is next on the food chain. He says he feels better than he has in years, and he looks it. The Braves' staff is very good, and deep, so Charlie Morton adds another veteran presence, even though I think he could be tailing off a bit. Now we come to Reynaldo Lopez who seems to fit very nicely as a five. He could outperform that slot. That's a very good front five, but depth is a small concern. Next in line is Bryce Elder. He is nothing special, but he's not too far over his head, while top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver could also be in the mix if needed, but he could use more seasoning at Triple-A. 

Taking a quick look at the bullpen, Raisel Iglesias has stabilized a bullpen that appeared headed for serious distress prior to his arrival. He is quite competent, and although I don't consider him top tier, he is close. That probably leaves the eighth inning to lefty A.J. Minter and Joe Jimenez who I think can be competent set-up arms. However, I would keep an eye on both southpaw Aaron Bummer and maybe to an even greater extent former closer Pierce Johnson. They add considerable depth.

Recapping the Braves:

The arm to own: Sale has looked good, so a huge year is a real possibility.

He'll likely be overpriced: Fried just hasn't convinced me he is true ace.

Best of the bullpen: Iglesias, but keep an eye on Johnson if he gets regular work.

Miami Marlins – Exploring pitching staff members is fun. Teams like the Marlins are often more fun. The Marlins are young, but they are progressing in an organization that is making a name for itself by developing young arms. Unfortunately, Sandy Alcantara, their No. 1, is out for the season. However, another youngster, Jesus Luzardo, who has a similar ceiling, is locked and loaded. Like Alcantara needed to do, Luzardo still needs to refine his command, but he is nearly ready to be a genuine ace, and his massive upside makes him very appealing. Next up is Eury Perez. I think I actually like him a bit better than the first two, but he is hurt and is having a consultation with a surgeon. That often leads to bad news. In my opinion, the trio of Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers and the promising Edward Cabrera all fit into the back-of-the-rotation mix, and the conversion of A.J. Puk back to starting appears to be going well. Long term, I like Garrett the best of that group followed by Rogers, Puk and Cabrera, but they are all pretty close. And, don't forget the Marlins like keeping their options open with kids, like 2020 first-round picks Max Meyer and Noble Meyer. I am not sure they are ready for the show just yet but they are not far off.

The Marlins bullpen is clearly not a strength of the team. At this writing, I count four (maybe more) candidates for saves. At the top of the list is Tanner Scott, but anyone could emerge. Scott has just 33 saves in parts of seven major league seasons. He has good, but not great, stuff and has a lower strikeout rate. Other than that, he's perfect. Actually, Andrew Nardi, who had a solid year in 2023, might be the most likely candidate to pitch the ninth if Scott stumbles, but he's better suited to a set-up role. And, finally, Calvin Faucher, George Soriano and Anthony Bender (who missed 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery) could all get into the mix, too.

Recapping the Marlins:

The arm to own: Garrett is less hyped than the others but he has a similar ceiling.

He'll likely be overpriced: Cabrera is good but seems to be at least a bit overvalued.

Best of the bullpen: Scott is my lukewarm choice as the best in an undermanned bullpen.

New York Mets – The NL East was a division deep in quality starting pitching, and the Mets, loaded with talent, were a part of that equation. Now, 41-year-old Justin Verlander and 39-year-old Max Scherzer are gone. The top spot will be manned by Kodai Senga. Or at least he will when he's healthy – hopefully early May. Senga is a veritable kid (he's 31) but he has learned the art of pitching. They also have Luis Severino. He is a solid starter when healthy but he has had trouble staying on the mound, and Sean Manaea is also being counted on to provide quality innings. The plan is to have Jose Quintana hold down the four spot, and he fits in that slot. To begin the season, it looks like a pair of adequate arms, Tylor Megill and Adrian Houser, could share the five spot, at least until David Peterson is health (probably early June). So, the rotation is both capable and fairly deep when everyone is healthy.

Last year, overnight, the bullpen went from a strength of the team to the land of question marks. Edwin Diaz, their ace closer blew out his knee at the WBC and was lost for the season. He's back, and looks healthy, so that's all you need to know. Adam Ottavino and Shintaro Fujinami should both be solid in set-up roles. They'll be joined by steady southpaws Brooks Raley and Jake Diekman, while Phil Bickford could serve as a long reliever and/or swingman if needed.

Recapping the Mets:

The arm to own: I find myself anticipating a very big year from Senga.

He'll likely be overpriced: I'm not completely sold on Quintana.

Best of the bullpen: Diaz is back, end of line.

Philadelphia Phillies – Like most teams, the Phillies' rotation presents an intriguing scenario. The staff has some upside, but it's not very deep, which could present challenges in this rough division. They have two genuine aces. Aaron Nola has been a favorite of mine since his college days. He is an exceptionally talented workhorse who thrives on competition, and that type of pitcher is always very appealing. He fits nicely at the top of pretty much any fantasy rotation. After years of frustrating injuries that always interrupted his progress, Zack Wheeler has now taken a regular turn every five days over the past few years. He's pitched well since putting the injuries behind him, and he should competently man the one/two spot in their rotation. Now the question marks arise. The lackluster group following the top two includes Taijuan Walker (decent stuff but something of an underperformer) who is likely penciled into the three slot, followed by Ranger Suarez who just doesn't excite me. Then, it gets really sketchy, with perhaps Cristopher Sanchez, Spencer Turnbull (who has some upside but might be better in the bullpen while he refines his skills), David Buchanan (who has spent the last few seasons in Japan and Korea) or Nick Nelson. Those last four are No. 5 starters in MLB at best right now and unlikely to warrant a spot on any but the deepest fantasy rosters. That leaves us shopping for someone capable of stepping in as a legitimate back-end starter, and there just isn't someone I consider a good candidate. They do have a nice kid in Andrew Painter. He is high on my kids list, but he underwent Tommy John surgery last July and isn't expected to pitch this year so he's more of a futures selection.

In recent years the Phillies pen has given a whole new meaning to the term ugly. Every season – 2023 included – they bring in pretty much a whole new herd, and every season the ugliness continues. The latest on the list is Jose Alvarado who should be the favorite to close early on, but I'm not really sold. They also have Gregory Soto who did some closing in Detroit, but he's best suited to set-up work. Youngster Orion Kerkering is a possible sleeper to grab saves if Alvarado scuffles. Interestingly, their best option to close might be holdover Seranthony Dominguez, but they have needed him in so many other places too often. Maybe 2024 is the year he gets the opportunity. They also have veteran southpaw Matt Strahm, who gives them multiple innings, and another competent bridge builder, Jeff Hoffman.

Recapping the Phillies:

The arm to own: Nola, but I need a nice discount hoping for a bounce-back.

He'll likely be overpriced: Suarez tends to outpitch his overall stuff, but I'll pass.

Best of the bullpen: Dominguez is still the best of an unsettled bullpen.

Washington Nationals – Like several other NL East teams, the Nationals are evolving. If you base it on tenure, Patrick Corbin, who has been nothing short of horrible in recent years, is their staff leader. Corbin's signature slider mysteriously deserted him, but there is always a chance he could find it again. On the other side, two young guys are the hope for the future. Josiah Gray is realistically their No. 1. He has paid the price, learning on the job after being pushed into service before he was ready. He has shown steady improvement, and I expect that to continue. The other arm belongs to MacKenzie Gore. A longtime favorite of mine, he can't seem to find the strike zone consistently following a few injuries. However, his stuff is still electric, and I'm betting it all comes together. Unfortunately, they'll be followed by some less spectacular arms. Trevor Williams is in the mix but he probably only fits now as an average No. 5. The other favorites to claim a spot are innings eater Jake Irvin and veteran Zach Davies. Having recovered from Tommy John surgery, top prospect Cade Cavalli likely pushes his way into the rotation around midseason.

The Nat's pen needed a boost, and they have gotten some help from Kyle Finnegan, but he's not a true closer. He's reportedly not the "named" closer, as the Nats look at alternatives. Top of the list is the oft-injured Hunter Harvey. If he can stay healthy, he could claim the job. If not, the Nats have other options in Tanner Rainey (love his stuff) and veteran Dylan Floro. A sleeper could be Matt Barnes, who could get into the mix, but I think his primary role will be setting up, which is where he fits best.

Recapping the Nationals:

The arm to own: Gore probably comes at a big discount, and I'm buying.

He'll likely be overpriced: I think Williams is unlikely to pay any sort of dividend.

Best of the bullpen: Look for Harvey or Rainey to make some noise if healthy.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Brad Johnson
For more than 30 years, pitching guru Brad "Bogfella" Johnson has provided insightful evaluation and analysis of pitchers to a wide variety of fantasy baseball websites, webcasts and radio broadcasts. He joined RotoWire in 2011 with his popular Bogfella's Notebook.
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