Only four teams remain alive in the quest for a berth in the 2025 World Series, and Sunday will feature Game 1 of the American League Championship Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners. Toronto defeated the New York Yankees in four games in the ALDS, while the Mariners dispatched the Detroit Tigers in five, including a marathon 15-inning victory in the series-clinching game.
Here are our best bets and player props for Game 1 of the ALCS.
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Best MLB Bets Today For Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays ALCS Game 1
Under 8.5 runs scored, -120 @ ESPN Bet
The first three games of the ALDS against the Yankees saw over 10 total runs scored, with Toronto putting up at least 10 runs in their two wins at Rogers Centre. However, they were limited to "only" six runs in a 9-6 Game 3 loss and won 5-2 in the clinching Game 4 victory in Yankee Stadium. With the Mariners employing something similar to a bullpen day, the Blue Jays will have to face multiple arms throughout the game, which could disrupt the flow of the offense. The Mariners saw three of their five games against the Tigers feature under 5.5 total runs, so it's not as if they were overpowering opponents with their offense. They're more than capable of doing so, but Kevin Gausman is a complicated pitcher to deal with. We believe the run line in Game 1 will be relatively low, as has been the trend throughout most of the 2025 MLB Playoffs. Including the Wild Card Round, 18 of 29 playoff contests have had eight or fewer runs scored.
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Bryce Miller under 2.5 total strikeouts, -120 @ Ceasars
Miller will get the starting nod for the Mariners in this ALCS opener after the Mariners were forced to use three members of their rotation during Friday's 15-inning marathon against Detroit. Miller will take the mound Sunday on just three days' rest, so it's unclear just how deep he'll be able to go into the game. The 27-year-old threw just 55 pitches during his last appearance in Game 4 of the ALDS on Wednesday, so he may still be able to pitch fairly deep into Sunday's game despite his short recovery period. Given that Miller isn't known for being a flamethrower, as he struck out only 74 batters across 90.1 innings pitched in the regular season, we don't project him to have a high strikeout line in this contest, especially if he doesn't pitch deep into the game. He faced the Blue Jays once in the regular season, fanning three across five innings in a loss on May 11.
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Vladimir Guerrero over 1.5 total bases, -118 @ BetRivers
Guerrero has been unstoppable in the preseason. He went 9-for-17 with three homers, nine RBI and five runs scored in the ALDS against the Yankees, hitting .529 with a 1.609 OPS. Those are video-game-like numbers. He endured a slow end to the regular season, but he's bounced back admirably in the playoffs. Even though he went only 1-for-4 with an RBI and a walk in the series-clinching Game 4 victory, he recorded at least five total bases in each of the previous three games of the series. It's also worth noting that Guerrero hit safely in four of six contests against the Mariners during the regular season, and with the way he's been swinging the bat in the playoffs, it's feasible to see him record multiple bases once again.
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MLB Picks For ALCS Game 1 Recap
- Under 8.5 runs scored, -120 @ ESPN Bet
- Bryce Miller under 2.5 total strikeouts, -120 @ Ceasars
- Vladimir Guerrero over 1.5 total bases, -118 @ BetRivers
