Top MLB Best Bets for Friday, October 10
Previous article 0-3 (-3.00 units)
Season 149-160-2 (-15.86 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Betting playoff baseball is a completely different animal as you have the best pitching, hitting, bullpens, etc. going against each other. Rotations are no longer lined up like they were in the last round, so we are seeing larger moneylines and totals.
In the divisional round, the home field does get more balanced, unlike the wild-card round. There are some days off, but with five games, the starting pitching depth does give teams an advantage more in this round.
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Tigers vs Mariners Best Bets and Predictions
It all comes down to Game 5 in Seattle on Friday night with the Tigers at the Mariners. We have a great pitching matchup with Tarik Skubal against George Kirby. Detroit opened -130 road favorites and the number has moved to -145 in favor of the Tigers with a total of 5.5 in most places.
The Tigers are 0-3 in Skubal's last 3 starts against the Mariners, with Skubal allowing a combined 4 home runs, including two to Jorge Polanco in Game 2. Skubal has put up 9, 14, 8, and 9 strikeouts in his last 4 starts, but has averaged 7.3 strikeouts in his last 3 starts against the Mariners. In two of those starts, he lasted just 5 innings and 5.2 innings. Manager A.J. Hinch is going to have to ride him deep into this game in order to win.
The Mariners are 23-7 in their last 30 home games, and both teams are trending towards the UNDER in recent games. But this is a game with a total of just 5.5 runs, which is unheard of.
The problem with a total of 5.5 is that there is very little margin of error, and anything wacky can happen. The other issue is that you can not get to a one run game with a total of 6 runs. It would have to be 4-2, which is doable, you just need to understand the math behind the number. I can see this being 3-2 while having to sweat this total the whole time. Especially once the bullpens get in the mix.
Predicting the winner in this game is nearly impossible, and a coin flip, so if you are taking the Mariners, it is because of the number with them as a home dog. If you are taking the Tigers, you are banking on one of the best pitchers in baseball with Tarik Skubal.
The Mariners are one team that seems to know how to hit Skubal, and with their home-field edge, getting them at plus money as a home dog is the way I am going to lean. This will also correlate with their team total, which is just 2.5 runs. With Skubal going deep in this game, I like him to have 2+ walks.
- 92% of the bets and 84% of the money is on the OVER
- 61% of the bets and 84% of the money is on Seattle
Best MLB Bets, ALDS Game 5
- Tarik Skubal 2+ Walks for 1 unit (DraftKings +175)
- Mariners OVER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Mariners ML for 1 unit (Bet365 +120)
