Spencer Turnbull

After missing the whole 2022 season following Tommy John surgery, Turnbull made his return in 2023 but struggled to ever get on track. The veteran righty was limited to just 15 total starts in the majors and minors combined as he dealt with neck and toe injuries. When healthy, Turnbull didn't perform particularly well, turning in a 7.26 ERA and 1.68 WHIP across 31 innings for the Tigers. He only struck out 24 batters as well and his fastball was down a few ticks from when he last pitched in 2021. Turnbull was non-tendered by Detroit in November, meaning he'll now likely find a new home for the first time in his professional career. With the 31-year-old still trying to find his form following his surgery, he'll probably have to settle for a minor-league deal and will have to work his way into an MLB rotation. Turnbull had some success earlier in his tenure with Detroit, but at this point, he is off the fantasy radar until further notice.

Following Tommy John surgery in July 2021, Turnbull missed the entire 2022 season, though he should be ready to go for the start of spring training in 2023. When we last saw the righty, he posted a solid 2.88 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, though he only logged 50 innings before getting shut down. The year before that was the condensed 2020 campaign, in which Turnbull posted a 3.97 ERA across 56.2 innings. You have to go back to 2019 to find anything resembling a normal starter's workload. That year, Turnbull posted a 4.61 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while striking out 146 across 148.1 innings, which stands as his career high for innings. Considering how little we've seen of Turnbull the past few seasons, it's hard to project what kind of results he's capable of. He's had some success at the MLB level, so fantasy managers may want to keep an eye on him if he gets hot, but expectations should be tempered.

Turnbull pitched surprisingly excellent baseball through nine starts in 2021 before his body failed him. He opened the season 4-2 over those nine starts with a 2.88 ERA (2.95 FIP) and 0.98 WHIP while holding the opposition to a .201 batting average. All the growing pains from his ugly 2019 season and the ups and downs of the sprint through 2020 were beginning to be rewarded until he could not answer the bell after the fourth inning of his final outing. The elbow pain was diagnosed as a UCL tear and Turnbull had Tommy John surgery July 31, which means he will very likely miss the entirety of the 2022 season. Turnbull could be back on the fantasy radar sometime in 2023 once he is two full seasons removed from his surgery.

Turnbull is the kind of pitcher that would get us excited in years past when our access to stats was mostly limited to what was on a baseball card. He went .500 for a bad team with a sub-4.00 ERA, a high groundball rate, nary a home run and nearly a strikeout per inning. Below the surface, things do not look as nice. He walks too many batters, gives up quite a bit of hard contact and his outcomes were better than what a pitcher with a 9.1 K-BB% normally enjoys. Nearly every expected stat in his profile portends bad things in 2021 if he repeats the issues with walks from 2020. Conversely, if he found better command and could lean more on his awesome slider, he could take a significant step forward in 2021. The potential is there for this talented arm to go either way, but you should lean toward another year of growing pains.

You have to feel for a guy who posts a 3.99 FIP and goes 3-17 on the season over 30 starts. Turnbull had a 22.3 K% last year, but the 9.0 BB% led to a high WHIP. Around those issues, he had nine quality starts and had eight starts where he struck out at least seven batters. He lives off his fastball and breaking balls, which help him hold righties at bay, as they have a .234/.325/.380 slash line against him in the majors. Lefties fare better against him (.296/.364/.432) because Turnbull has yet to come up with an effective pitch that either fades away or cuts in. He has worked on a cutter to give him something against lefties, but either that pitch or finding a changeup is needed for him to narrow his splits. He is better than his W-L record indicates, but there is still room for improvement.

Turnbull earned his first big-league callup in September, starting three games for the Tigers and appearing in another one in relief. He struggled to a 6.06 ERA, a result that isn't too surprising considering he'd only ever made two starts at the Triple-A level prior to his promotion. His underlying numbers in his small sample were actually quite promising, as he struck out a roughly average 21.7% of batters while walking just 5.8%, leading to a 2.85 FIP. His true talent undoubtedly lies somewhere in the large space between his ERA and FIP. On a rebuilding Tigers team, he may be given the chance to show what he can do over a larger sample. The 26-year-old didn't project as anything more than a back-end starter as a prospect, with poor control and no standout secondary pitches.